4 ms·
No I know it's not even close. I might be foolish and I might mix up some numbers (here it's closer to 50 than 30 years) - but when reading papers like this I c
by watson 11y ago
No I know it's not even close. I might be foolish and I might mix up some numbers (here it's closer to 50 than 30 years) - but when reading papers like this I can't help feeling slightly optimistic: http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf
- api 11y agoEstimate surveys have a poor record. Technologies tend to be perpetually 10-30 years away until they are 0 years away, or never happen at all. ANI and AGI are qualitatively different. Progress in making cars faster will not lead to teleportation or warp drive. It's not even applicable. There are many unknown unknowns in AGI. I could not even pretend to give you an estimate.