6 ms·

> Also, cars are basically software at this point. Especially tesla. No, not at all. In the case of cars with ICE the biggest challenge is still mechanical --

> Also, cars are basically software at this point. Especially tesla. No, not at all. In the case of cars with ICE the biggest challenge is still mechanical -- mostly related to environmental protection standards. To keep a BMW M5 Euro5 compliant you have to go a _long_ way. If you mean that you use software to design these cars then well, yes, I can agree. But the onboard software is still a very-very small part of the challenge. (Ask somebody who's actually in the car industry, especially if he's in the higher-end market, like someone from AMG, BMW M, etc.; just the cooling of these things is an art.) In the case of Tesla, things are slightly different, but not that much. The big thing here is the reliable electric motor, which -- also according to Tesla marketing -- is simple compared to an ICE, but in reality it's a big challenge to manufacture because high-powered electric motors need to be manufactured with incredible precision, otherwise they break quickyl and often.

LoSboccacc 12y ago
> To keep a BMW M5 Euro5 compliant you have to go a _long_ way to all armchair engineers, you can try out how to create low pollution high power engines in this game: automationgame.com
jcfrei 12y ago
I would argue that the main challenge is actually manufacturing. Building one or a hundred great cars is easy. Building hundreds of thousands great cars with millions of customized variations (like BMW, Audi, etc do.) is the difficult part. Tesla has been behind its promised number of deliveries in 2014 (http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/02/12/earnings-review-tesla-misses-its-delivery-target-for-2014-but-upbeat-about-2015-outlook/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/02/12/ear...). If Tesla wants to be a big player in the automotive industry they really need to keep optimizing their supply chain and manufacturing. The product itself is top-notch, no question about it.
- sz4kerto 12y ago
  That's true. Also, most consumers don't realize that the reason why Tim Cook become Apple CEO and why Apple is doing so well financially is their finely tuned supply/manufacturing chain. At high volumes that can make or break a company. For example, VW will predictably do really well in the next 10-15 years as they've invested tons of money into optimizing their manufacturing; they use the same basic modules for a large VW and a small Seat.
  - seanp2k2 12y ago
    Yup, their MQB platform is pretty cool: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MQB_platform http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MQB_platform
- amalag 12y ago
  And imagine the deliveries increased an order of magnitude when they try to sell the model 3.
- r00fus 12y ago
  Can you explain why millions of customized variations are required? Why not go the Apple approach - provide a small number of models that satisfy a pareto-split percentage (80%+ including the more profitable markets) and leave the remaining percentage either to aftermarket partners or competitors? That's the approach Tesla has taken, focusing primarily on the highest margin portion, and filtering down. Tesla isn't planning to be a "big player in the automotive industry". They plan on creating new product market, which just so happens to be compatible with the existing infrastructure. The incompatibilities (i.e., no ICE/gas) is a feature.
  - jcfrei 12y ago
    > Can you explain why millions of customized variations are required? For the same reason that car manufacturers offer different models for the same product (personal transportation): like the A, C, E, S class (in the case of Mercedes). These classes allow a producer to differentiate between consumers with different spending power. If you offer just one product at one price you can't capture the whole market (ie. you sell too little / too cheap to rich people and can't sell to poor people). Apple recently started going this way as well with the introduction of the Apple watch. If you look at all the models and options they can cover a very broad price range. Differentiating between the watch sport, the watch and the watch edition. Add to this the different sizes (38MM and 42MM) and the different bands and you get a very nice price continuum between 349$ and 17000$.
    - r00fus 12y ago
      And yet, the key tooling (chipset/OS/form factor) for those numerous combinations is a handful of choices in total. Add in the fact that it's not millions of variations (really only a couple dozen now). Tim Cook famously said in some conference a while back that all of what Apple sells can be fit in on a table in front of him. I don't think that guiding vision has really changed. Furthermore, it's not clear if the Apple watch will be successful. I wouldn't use it as a guideline for a successful product strategy - yet.
  - thanksgiving 12y ago
    I think they'd need at least three different products: a sedan, a minivan, and a truck. To the other commentator, I don't believe market segmentation is essential at this stage of the game yet. However, my information about it is mostly from this Joel Spolksy article http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/CamelsandRubberDuckies.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/CamelsandRubberDuckie... so I don't know much about this topic.
- stef25 12y ago
  > they really need to keep optimizing their supply chain and manufacturing And work on more charging stations and battery life. Here at the office the guy with the Tesla is constantly mocked cause he couldn't even make it to the team building event, less than a 3 hr drive away (mainly by the guy who had to borrow his mom's Clio to buy some loudspeakers that didn't fit in his own sports car, but that's a different story ...) Why on earth you'd spend a hundred grand on a car that can't drive more than a couple hours is beyond me, even if it has a big-ass iPad inside.
  - jegutman 12y ago
    You realize this is such a small part of the overall driving experience? I don't know how people are convinced this is a huge deal. It is possible to rent a car for the 1 or 2 days a year you have to drive 400 miles in a single trip. In fact, if you own an M5 I would also suggest you do it as well. I've had my car in Austin for a year and a half now and never once been concerned about power, never once been to a charging station (and never been to a gas station). I would suggest that most people aren't regularly taking giant road trips. The touch screen is not even that awesome (no tactile response), it's less than 1/100th of what makes the car great to own / drive.
    - abruzzi 12y ago
      The problem I have with this argument is that is doesn't eliminate the problem, but merely removes it a step. These are problem EVs need to surmount because other wise we will have lots of of personally owned EVs that get parked so people can rent ICE vehicles every time they leave town for a trip. As an early adopter people expect to have to look past these issues, but for wide mainstream adoption, and dare I say, replacement of ICE vehicles, the problem will need to be solved with a combination of better range, quicker changing, and a wider availability of quick chargers. Also, there are many people who take long road trips far more frequently and for whom range is a genuine issue (between my vehicles, I clock about 30k miles a year--mostly pleasure as I live only a mile from my job.) I don't begrudge those who can make an EV work for them, but it won't for me.
- rwmj 12y ago
  If my Google car is a taxi, why do I want/care about custom variations?

LoSboccacc 12y ago

> To keep a BMW M5 Euro5 compliant you have to go a _long_ way to all armchair engineers, you can try out how to create low pollution high power engines in this game: automationgame.com

jcfrei 12y ago

I would argue that the main challenge is actually manufacturing. Building one or a hundred great cars is easy. Building hundreds of thousands great cars with millions of customized variations (like BMW, Audi, etc do.) is the difficult part. Tesla has been behind its promised number of deliveries in 2014 (http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/02/12/earnings-review-tesla-misses-its-delivery-target-for-2014-but-upbeat-about-2015-outlook/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/02/12/ear...). If Tesla wants to be a big player in the automotive industry they really need to keep optimizing their supply chain and manufacturing. The product itself is top-notch, no question about it.

sz4kerto 12y ago
That's true. Also, most consumers don't realize that the reason why Tim Cook become Apple CEO and why Apple is doing so well financially is their finely tuned supply/manufacturing chain. At high volumes that can make or break a company. For example, VW will predictably do really well in the next 10-15 years as they've invested tons of money into optimizing their manufacturing; they use the same basic modules for a large VW and a small Seat.
- seanp2k2 12y ago
  Yup, their MQB platform is pretty cool: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MQB_platform http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MQB_platform
amalag 12y ago
And imagine the deliveries increased an order of magnitude when they try to sell the model 3.
r00fus 12y ago
Can you explain why millions of customized variations are required? Why not go the Apple approach - provide a small number of models that satisfy a pareto-split percentage (80%+ including the more profitable markets) and leave the remaining percentage either to aftermarket partners or competitors? That's the approach Tesla has taken, focusing primarily on the highest margin portion, and filtering down. Tesla isn't planning to be a "big player in the automotive industry". They plan on creating new product market, which just so happens to be compatible with the existing infrastructure. The incompatibilities (i.e., no ICE/gas) is a feature.
- jcfrei 12y ago
  > Can you explain why millions of customized variations are required? For the same reason that car manufacturers offer different models for the same product (personal transportation): like the A, C, E, S class (in the case of Mercedes). These classes allow a producer to differentiate between consumers with different spending power. If you offer just one product at one price you can't capture the whole market (ie. you sell too little / too cheap to rich people and can't sell to poor people). Apple recently started going this way as well with the introduction of the Apple watch. If you look at all the models and options they can cover a very broad price range. Differentiating between the watch sport, the watch and the watch edition. Add to this the different sizes (38MM and 42MM) and the different bands and you get a very nice price continuum between 349$ and 17000$.
  - r00fus 12y ago
    And yet, the key tooling (chipset/OS/form factor) for those numerous combinations is a handful of choices in total. Add in the fact that it's not millions of variations (really only a couple dozen now). Tim Cook famously said in some conference a while back that all of what Apple sells can be fit in on a table in front of him. I don't think that guiding vision has really changed. Furthermore, it's not clear if the Apple watch will be successful. I wouldn't use it as a guideline for a successful product strategy - yet.
- thanksgiving 12y ago
  I think they'd need at least three different products: a sedan, a minivan, and a truck. To the other commentator, I don't believe market segmentation is essential at this stage of the game yet. However, my information about it is mostly from this Joel Spolksy article http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/CamelsandRubberDuckies.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/CamelsandRubberDuckie... so I don't know much about this topic.
stef25 12y ago
> they really need to keep optimizing their supply chain and manufacturing And work on more charging stations and battery life. Here at the office the guy with the Tesla is constantly mocked cause he couldn't even make it to the team building event, less than a 3 hr drive away (mainly by the guy who had to borrow his mom's Clio to buy some loudspeakers that didn't fit in his own sports car, but that's a different story ...) Why on earth you'd spend a hundred grand on a car that can't drive more than a couple hours is beyond me, even if it has a big-ass iPad inside.
- jegutman 12y ago
  You realize this is such a small part of the overall driving experience? I don't know how people are convinced this is a huge deal. It is possible to rent a car for the 1 or 2 days a year you have to drive 400 miles in a single trip. In fact, if you own an M5 I would also suggest you do it as well. I've had my car in Austin for a year and a half now and never once been concerned about power, never once been to a charging station (and never been to a gas station). I would suggest that most people aren't regularly taking giant road trips. The touch screen is not even that awesome (no tactile response), it's less than 1/100th of what makes the car great to own / drive.
  - abruzzi 12y ago
    The problem I have with this argument is that is doesn't eliminate the problem, but merely removes it a step. These are problem EVs need to surmount because other wise we will have lots of of personally owned EVs that get parked so people can rent ICE vehicles every time they leave town for a trip. As an early adopter people expect to have to look past these issues, but for wide mainstream adoption, and dare I say, replacement of ICE vehicles, the problem will need to be solved with a combination of better range, quicker changing, and a wider availability of quick chargers. Also, there are many people who take long road trips far more frequently and for whom range is a genuine issue (between my vehicles, I clock about 30k miles a year--mostly pleasure as I live only a mile from my job.) I don't begrudge those who can make an EV work for them, but it won't for me.
rwmj 12y ago
If my Google car is a taxi, why do I want/care about custom variations?