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I wouldn't call a major UN report un-reviewed or Der Spiegel a conspiracy site... http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/feared-migration-hasn-t-happened-un

• Daishiman 12y ago
  If this is the best that you can find, I'd like to make a few comments: * This is basically one quote by one dude with dubious methodologies in a very novel field of research. If you had taken the time to understand a little bit more about the field instead of, you know, basing yourself entirely on the position of one academic, you would find that it's still a very contentious topic (see http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378011001403 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378011...) * The consensus is, however, that there are at least 25 million current displaced people from climate events. A lot of people consider that many of the current events of violence in the Middle East have been triggered by increases in prices of staple foods which have contributed towards destabilizing societies. While this is hard to quantify, there is a lot of research efforts towards underestanding that better. * Absolutely none of what you quoted has any relation whatsoever to the predicting powers of the climate models, which work in considerably longer cycles but, again, have thus far been very useful at explaining the current changes in climate. They explain the melting of the Antactic ice shelves, the Greenland glaciers, the drying of California and the destabilization of the Jet Stream, leading to the current freak weather events in the East Coast and Europe. Again, this was all predicted 15 years ago to a disturbingly high degree of accuracy. You're showing that you've really no understanding the depths of climate science. You can't say that the fact that there are a lot of unknowns in some parts of the models, or worse yet, the sociological responses to those known changes, invalidates the rest of our understanding. It sounds to me that your expectations of how models work is unrealistic or that it somehow discredits the established body of knowledge that we have. What's important is that we understand very well how ecosystems are degrading, what are the most likely things to happen to the climate, and how the impacts will be felt. The fact that we can't yet quantify some things such as specific plant responses, particular microclimate changes, or mass-scale social behaviors (which, might I remind you, is still not understood by anyone on the world) is to be expected, and there are thousands of people currently working on filling us in on that knowledge.
  • jqm 12y ago
    "The consensus is, however, that there are at least 25 million current displaced people from climate events." Human caused climate events? Source? Let's get out of the weeds back and back up to the original point. Well funded models have failed in their predictions. Many. "there are thousands of people currently working on filling us in on that knowledge" Great. I am in sure in time we will become much better at modeling complex systems. But I hope you understand my skepticism of this article.