8 ms·

food shortage leads to revolution. The real problem here is we tried to turn a desert in to our national bread basket.

trhway 12y ago
>The real problem here is we tried to turn a desert in to our national bread basket. or may be that our national bread basket is turning into a desert? One needs 3 components - soil, sun and water. We're loosing the 3rd component : http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-drought-worst-1-200-years-new-study http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-dr... "The last three years of drought were the most severe that California has experienced in at least 1,200 years" Everybody can just only guess why... Edit: to the "jff"'s response below - a "guess" by the Stanford http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/september/drought-climate-change-092914.html http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/september/drought-climate...
- jff 12y ago
  > Everybody can just only guess why... NOAA says it isn't because of climate change, if that's what you're implying.
  - nitrogen 12y ago
    NOAA says it isn't because of climate change, if that's what you're implying. Should the word "anthropogenic" be in that sentence somewhere? Getting less water is indeed a change in the climate by the very definitions of climate and change.
    - Dylan16807 12y ago
      Not when it's just random chance. An X year drought by definition is supposed to happen every X years.
      - nitrogen 12y ago
        What's the dividing line between a changing climate and a very highly randomly varying unchanging climate? Also, minor nit, "X year event" doesn't mean the event should happen every X years, but that over a span Y >> X, the event happens Y / X times.
        Dylan16807 12y ago
        Yes I meant on average. The dividing line is simple; it's when the average changes. You can't objectively measure this, but you can get certainty bounds by using many data points. The smaller the change, the more data points you need. A single huge drought in a place prone to droughts is not a very strong data point by itself. Unless it literally doesn't end, we'll need many more years of rain measurements to know if the baseline has changed. If you go global it's a lot easier to take independent measurements and show climate change exists at all. But to ask whether the level of rain in California is from climate change simply can't be answered as quickly.
        abduhl 12y ago
        Actually, an X-year event means that an event of equal or greater size has a 1 out of X chance of occurring per year which is distinctly different from for Y >> X => Y/X occurrences. For example, a 100 year flood has a probability of occurring (or being exceeded) of 1% per year which is distinctly different from "a 100 year flood is expected once every 100 years". The law of large numbers implies your statement but that isn't what the term X-year event means.
- green7ea 12y ago
  We also seem to be losing the first component (soil). At least we're going to have plenty of sunlight left.
rhino369 12y ago
I used to think this way, but it's a very fertile desert. But the use of the land shouldn't be propped up by externalaties paid for by everyone else. The water should just be auctioned off each year. Proceeds going to find new sources of water.
WalterSear 12y ago
National meat basket, rather. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-j-rose/how-to-take-long-showers_b_6875644.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-j-rose/how-to-take-long-s... http://www.onegreenplanet.org/news/californias-drought-whos-really-using-all-the-water/ http://www.onegreenplanet.org/news/californias-drought-whos-... http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/sustain/global/sensem/MeatIndustry.html http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/sustain/global/sensem/MeatIndustry...
oh_sigh 12y ago
Don't you mean "almond and pistachio shortage leads to revolution"?
erispoe 12y ago
We have yet to see an almond shortage turn into a revolution though.
wnevets 12y ago
which shortage of foods grown in this desert would cause the revolution exactly? I dont see a lot of blood being spilled over the price of pistachios.
colordrops 12y ago
Unnecessary and inefficient foods are farmed in California. There is a huge margin for improvement in land and water use before we come close to food shortage.
- primroot 12y ago
  I believe that if there were a way to measure agricultural productivity besides profits, arguing in favor of less environmentally damaging agriculture would be much easier. I had to endure Atrazine polluted tap water (Panama) for my birthday last year for the first time, (officially) due to negligence of a sugarcane producing corporation. Suddenly we are faced with the difficult dilemma of having less gin and sugar or polluting the drinking water of 5% of the country.

>The real problem here is we tried to turn a desert in to our national bread basket. or may be that our national bread basket is turning into a desert? One needs 3 components - soil, sun and water. We're loosing the 3rd component : http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-drought-worst-1-200-years-new-study http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-dr... "The last three years of drought were the most severe that California has experienced in at least 1,200 years" Everybody can just only guess why... Edit: to the "jff"'s response below - a "guess" by the Stanford http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/september/drought-climate-change-092914.html http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/september/drought-climate...

jff 12y ago
> Everybody can just only guess why... NOAA says it isn't because of climate change, if that's what you're implying.
- nitrogen 12y ago
  NOAA says it isn't because of climate change, if that's what you're implying. Should the word "anthropogenic" be in that sentence somewhere? Getting less water is indeed a change in the climate by the very definitions of climate and change.
  - Dylan16807 12y ago
    Not when it's just random chance. An X year drought by definition is supposed to happen every X years.
    - nitrogen 12y ago
      What's the dividing line between a changing climate and a very highly randomly varying unchanging climate? Also, minor nit, "X year event" doesn't mean the event should happen every X years, but that over a span Y >> X, the event happens Y / X times.
      - Dylan16807 12y ago
        Yes I meant on average. The dividing line is simple; it's when the average changes. You can't objectively measure this, but you can get certainty bounds by using many data points. The smaller the change, the more data points you need. A single huge drought in a place prone to droughts is not a very strong data point by itself. Unless it literally doesn't end, we'll need many more years of rain measurements to know if the baseline has changed. If you go global it's a lot easier to take independent measurements and show climate change exists at all. But to ask whether the level of rain in California is from climate change simply can't be answered as quickly.
      - abduhl 12y ago
        Actually, an X-year event means that an event of equal or greater size has a 1 out of X chance of occurring per year which is distinctly different from for Y >> X => Y/X occurrences. For example, a 100 year flood has a probability of occurring (or being exceeded) of 1% per year which is distinctly different from "a 100 year flood is expected once every 100 years". The law of large numbers implies your statement but that isn't what the term X-year event means.
green7ea 12y ago
We also seem to be losing the first component (soil). At least we're going to have plenty of sunlight left.

rhino369 12y ago

I used to think this way, but it's a very fertile desert. But the use of the land shouldn't be propped up by externalaties paid for by everyone else. The water should just be auctioned off each year. Proceeds going to find new sources of water.

WalterSear 12y ago

National meat basket, rather. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-j-rose/how-to-take-long-showers_b_6875644.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-j-rose/how-to-take-long-s... http://www.onegreenplanet.org/news/californias-drought-whos-really-using-all-the-water/ http://www.onegreenplanet.org/news/californias-drought-whos-... http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/sustain/global/sensem/MeatIndustry.html http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/sustain/global/sensem/MeatIndustry...

oh_sigh 12y ago

Don't you mean "almond and pistachio shortage leads to revolution"?

erispoe 12y ago

We have yet to see an almond shortage turn into a revolution though.

wnevets 12y ago

which shortage of foods grown in this desert would cause the revolution exactly? I dont see a lot of blood being spilled over the price of pistachios.

colordrops 12y ago

Unnecessary and inefficient foods are farmed in California. There is a huge margin for improvement in land and water use before we come close to food shortage.

primroot 12y ago
I believe that if there were a way to measure agricultural productivity besides profits, arguing in favor of less environmentally damaging agriculture would be much easier. I had to endure Atrazine polluted tap water (Panama) for my birthday last year for the first time, (officially) due to negligence of a sugarcane producing corporation. Suddenly we are faced with the difficult dilemma of having less gin and sugar or polluting the drinking water of 5% of the country.