5 ms·

The returns to entrepreneurship

96 points by prakash 17y ago

quellhorst 17y ago
Overnight success is a myth.
- Harj 17y ago
  depends on your definition of success
  - mikeryan 17y ago
    or your definition of "overnight"
kevinholesh 17y ago
Great positive outlook on the rewards of entrepreneurship when the media is constantly droning on about the negative effects of the recession. I too am looking forward to seeing where we'll be in 10 years time.
jmtame 17y ago
A very interesting reminder of just how low the barriers are to doing a start up today.
- Scott_MacGregor 17y ago
  The barriers are low as long as the brainpower is high. It isn’t just any person off the street who can flesh out and grow a startup company from scratch. It takes a certain type of person with a certain amount of horsepower under the hood to achieve that objective.
  - davidw 17y ago
    Ok, but the point is that everything else being equal, that person has a much better shot at things today, because of the very small amount of capital necessary for a web-based business.
10ren 17y ago
Examining a list of the 75 richest people in the history of the world, Gladwell notes that “an astonishing 14 are Americans born within nine years of one another in the mid-19th century.” http://features.csmonitor.com/books/2008/11/17/the-outliers/ http://features.csmonitor.com/books/2008/11/17/the-outliers/ England's colonial shipping trade and railroads were also technologies that changed the economics of business, making fortunes in the process.
patio11 17y ago
Excellent article. I think code is just one tiny piece of the puzzle, but here's an example: I'm one guy who programs in his kitchen. I would up at 6:12 AM last Saturday and, unable to get back to sleep, decided to write a new feature into my website. I found it easier than I expected and eventually ended up writing two new features. Then I set up A/B tests for both of them. I then got done at 10:37 AM and spent the rest of my day playing videogames. I was able to "write" two features in 4.5 hours because it was a matter of snapping two bits of OSS code together with a bit of UI glue drizzled on top. (The A/B testing framework is also OSS, though I wrote it.) My customers don't care about that, though: they care that they couldn't do X or Y last Friday and now they can. (Well, if they're in the A/B test group.) You know what isn't anywhere in the above description? A four hour planning meeting between six people discussing whether X or Y should go into the next version of the product. I've been at that meeting before. I think we all have. It is a tremendous waste of time when I can just ship the feature in an A/B test and tell you a week later how 5,000 users reacted. (Answer: feature X increased task success. Feature Y decreased it. Neither effect was statistically significant. As I had been delaying making these primarily out of fear that featureitis would hurt task completion, in the face of repeated customer requests for both features, I'll be shipping them to everybody.) And I'm one guy doing this from his kitchen table in his spare time in a not-too-rich niche. There is nothing about these techniques that make them less effective for bigger, better funded, more focused teams in richer niches.
markbao 17y ago
> Most web products have no marginal cost of replication, so adding a new customer is pure profit. This is my single gripe about this article. This isn't true: although there's a higher profit margin because the cost of one customer on a general web application is close to nil, the cost of acquiring a customer is sometimes pretty high. Especially if you factor in that 1% of free users will convert to paid users (in a freemium model.) Unless if you hit it out of the ballpark with some crazy lucky viral marketing, I'm pretty sure you're going to have to do some solid marketing to gain traction.
- patio11 17y ago
  On the plus side, if your trial -> purchase conversion rate is in fact 1%, then a single A/B test which increases your conversion at any step of the funnel between trial and purchase by 5% results in an almost immediate 5% increase in top-line revenue. And 95% of that (allowing a little bit for cost of payments) will flow straight to the bottom line, because you typically pay for COCA whether the person converts to premium or not. (Well, unless you're doing CPA marketing. Even then, there are compelling reasons to do conversion optimization, as it will make your effective payout for affiliates higher, attracting more of them to your banner.) Actually, come to think of it, in a freemium subscription model a 5% increase in conversion doesn't necessarily do 5% to revenues instantly because a portion of your revenues are produced by existing subscribers. Sorry -- I do one-time purchases, sometimes I forget about the economics for other folks. Still: what other businesses can assign one junior employee to work on button designs for a week and walk away with 5% added to the value of the business? And close to risk-free, because you can experiment on a fraction of your customers and terminate it almost instantly if it doesn't pan out? That is leverage, broadly defined, that would make hedge fund managers green with envy. ("Hey, can you figure out a way to make us 5% extra on all our capital? Oh yeah, and do it risk free. Oh yeah, and I'd like whatever you do to be basically repeatable with a minor variation next week, so that we can institutionalize this and do it as a process rather than a one-off. Alright, call me when you've made me a billion, I'll be on the golf course.")
  - markbao 17y ago
    Absolutely. There is a ton more leverage in the current space, you're totally right. It's just not the dreamy $0 CPA world that you'd expect as a 'seed-stage entrepreneur' reading that article. :)
davidw 17y ago
> It seems that the entrepreneurs who “hit” these days are doing it more quickly, making more money, and doing it at a younger age. Citation needed! I think 'younger age' is likely to be true. Thanks to the internet, it's easier to build up a network and get informed earlier. I wish I had had HN ten years ago! The rest of it... well, I'd like to see some facts.
paraschopra 17y ago
If making technology products has become accessible, similarly barriers to entries has been reduced. When there are lots of players, Nasim Taleb describes the situation as winner takes it all.
- patio11 17y ago
  I think the Internet makes two very different things common. I'm not sure what world any given business falls into: 1) The Internet is vast, and this tends to create everybody-wins. There is a virtually inexhaustible range of niches out there. Seriously -- one giant, flowing river of value creating. You are able to dip a bucket into it. You may not end up with your own private ocean (hello, Google) but you will also probably not die of thirst. I honestly think that this is big, like Industrial Revolution big. Big like "bigger than all the hype about the dot com bubble" big. That was a bunch of PR-funded hype which collapsed in on itself. This is about creation of value -- huge, staggering amounts of aggregate value -- and cutting out a lot of the waste that previously prevented that from reaching people. Industries are being reinvented, and some are being created out of whole cloth. 2) The Internet is deep, and this tends to create winner-takes-most. At the top levels of any intellectual labor there is a step function difference in outcomes between #1 and #2, #2 and #3, etc. We talk about the Long Tail because it is new and exciting, but the fat head is still there. That fat head of SEO means, for example, that executing 1% better than the guy in the #2 spot more than doubles your revenues. By itself. The difference between being Google-successful and being Facebook-successful is several orders of magnitude, even though both of those examples made their founders rich beyond the dreams of avarice. The productivity difference between the best programmers and the worst programmers is widely rumored to be an order of magnitude: I think in the future, we'll see the pay catch up, outside the fairly narrow range of quants on Wall Street. (And the difference between the average programmer and the best day laborer is probably going to keep climbing, too. Returns on one of them keep increasing, you do the math.) It is a great time to be alive for those of us who can leverage these trends. If I were committed to equality of outcomes, though, I would be terrified.
  - paraschopra 17y ago
    Regarding #1, I think you are right that there are a lot of niches which can be tapped and which will make one a moderate amount of money. But problem arises when tons of creative people choose a single niche (e.g. todo lists). Choosing a niche and executing well is important but what stops from other fishes having their lunch at your part of pond? Regarding #2, do you think luck is involved there in getting to jump the step function?
krschultz 17y ago
Is anyone else's Bubble Alarm going off? These are the kind of articles that are often a sign.
- tomjen2 17y ago
  My bubble alarm has been going on for years, but I predicted that neighter Facebook nor Twitter would ever have a viable business model and I have already been proved wrong on Facebook at least - I assumed that it was the harder of the two. Having said that, it still doesn't smell right.

96 points by prakash 17y ago

quellhorst 17y ago

Overnight success is a myth.

Harj 17y ago
depends on your definition of success
- mikeryan 17y ago
  or your definition of "overnight"

kevinholesh 17y ago

Great positive outlook on the rewards of entrepreneurship when the media is constantly droning on about the negative effects of the recession. I too am looking forward to seeing where we'll be in 10 years time.

jmtame 17y ago

A very interesting reminder of just how low the barriers are to doing a start up today.

Scott_MacGregor 17y ago
The barriers are low as long as the brainpower is high. It isn’t just any person off the street who can flesh out and grow a startup company from scratch. It takes a certain type of person with a certain amount of horsepower under the hood to achieve that objective.
- davidw 17y ago
  Ok, but the point is that everything else being equal, that person has a much better shot at things today, because of the very small amount of capital necessary for a web-based business.

10ren 17y ago

Examining a list of the 75 richest people in the history of the world, Gladwell notes that “an astonishing 14 are Americans born within nine years of one another in the mid-19th century.” http://features.csmonitor.com/books/2008/11/17/the-outliers/ http://features.csmonitor.com/books/2008/11/17/the-outliers/ England's colonial shipping trade and railroads were also technologies that changed the economics of business, making fortunes in the process.

patio11 17y ago

Excellent article. I think code is just one tiny piece of the puzzle, but here's an example: I'm one guy who programs in his kitchen. I would up at 6:12 AM last Saturday and, unable to get back to sleep, decided to write a new feature into my website. I found it easier than I expected and eventually ended up writing two new features. Then I set up A/B tests for both of them. I then got done at 10:37 AM and spent the rest of my day playing videogames. I was able to "write" two features in 4.5 hours because it was a matter of snapping two bits of OSS code together with a bit of UI glue drizzled on top. (The A/B testing framework is also OSS, though I wrote it.) My customers don't care about that, though: they care that they couldn't do X or Y last Friday and now they can. (Well, if they're in the A/B test group.) You know what isn't anywhere in the above description? A four hour planning meeting between six people discussing whether X or Y should go into the next version of the product. I've been at that meeting before. I think we all have. It is a tremendous waste of time when I can just ship the feature in an A/B test and tell you a week later how 5,000 users reacted. (Answer: feature X increased task success. Feature Y decreased it. Neither effect was statistically significant. As I had been delaying making these primarily out of fear that featureitis would hurt task completion, in the face of repeated customer requests for both features, I'll be shipping them to everybody.) And I'm one guy doing this from his kitchen table in his spare time in a not-too-rich niche. There is nothing about these techniques that make them less effective for bigger, better funded, more focused teams in richer niches.

markbao 17y ago

> Most web products have no marginal cost of replication, so adding a new customer is pure profit. This is my single gripe about this article. This isn't true: although there's a higher profit margin because the cost of one customer on a general web application is close to nil, the cost of acquiring a customer is sometimes pretty high. Especially if you factor in that 1% of free users will convert to paid users (in a freemium model.) Unless if you hit it out of the ballpark with some crazy lucky viral marketing, I'm pretty sure you're going to have to do some solid marketing to gain traction.

patio11 17y ago
On the plus side, if your trial -> purchase conversion rate is in fact 1%, then a single A/B test which increases your conversion at any step of the funnel between trial and purchase by 5% results in an almost immediate 5% increase in top-line revenue. And 95% of that (allowing a little bit for cost of payments) will flow straight to the bottom line, because you typically pay for COCA whether the person converts to premium or not. (Well, unless you're doing CPA marketing. Even then, there are compelling reasons to do conversion optimization, as it will make your effective payout for affiliates higher, attracting more of them to your banner.) Actually, come to think of it, in a freemium subscription model a 5% increase in conversion doesn't necessarily do 5% to revenues instantly because a portion of your revenues are produced by existing subscribers. Sorry -- I do one-time purchases, sometimes I forget about the economics for other folks. Still: what other businesses can assign one junior employee to work on button designs for a week and walk away with 5% added to the value of the business? And close to risk-free, because you can experiment on a fraction of your customers and terminate it almost instantly if it doesn't pan out? That is leverage, broadly defined, that would make hedge fund managers green with envy. ("Hey, can you figure out a way to make us 5% extra on all our capital? Oh yeah, and do it risk free. Oh yeah, and I'd like whatever you do to be basically repeatable with a minor variation next week, so that we can institutionalize this and do it as a process rather than a one-off. Alright, call me when you've made me a billion, I'll be on the golf course.")
- markbao 17y ago
  Absolutely. There is a ton more leverage in the current space, you're totally right. It's just not the dreamy $0 CPA world that you'd expect as a 'seed-stage entrepreneur' reading that article. :)

davidw 17y ago

> It seems that the entrepreneurs who “hit” these days are doing it more quickly, making more money, and doing it at a younger age. Citation needed! I think 'younger age' is likely to be true. Thanks to the internet, it's easier to build up a network and get informed earlier. I wish I had had HN ten years ago! The rest of it... well, I'd like to see some facts.

paraschopra 17y ago

If making technology products has become accessible, similarly barriers to entries has been reduced. When there are lots of players, Nasim Taleb describes the situation as winner takes it all.

patio11 17y ago
I think the Internet makes two very different things common. I'm not sure what world any given business falls into: 1) The Internet is vast, and this tends to create everybody-wins. There is a virtually inexhaustible range of niches out there. Seriously -- one giant, flowing river of value creating. You are able to dip a bucket into it. You may not end up with your own private ocean (hello, Google) but you will also probably not die of thirst. I honestly think that this is big, like Industrial Revolution big. Big like "bigger than all the hype about the dot com bubble" big. That was a bunch of PR-funded hype which collapsed in on itself. This is about creation of value -- huge, staggering amounts of aggregate value -- and cutting out a lot of the waste that previously prevented that from reaching people. Industries are being reinvented, and some are being created out of whole cloth. 2) The Internet is deep, and this tends to create winner-takes-most. At the top levels of any intellectual labor there is a step function difference in outcomes between #1 and #2, #2 and #3, etc. We talk about the Long Tail because it is new and exciting, but the fat head is still there. That fat head of SEO means, for example, that executing 1% better than the guy in the #2 spot more than doubles your revenues. By itself. The difference between being Google-successful and being Facebook-successful is several orders of magnitude, even though both of those examples made their founders rich beyond the dreams of avarice. The productivity difference between the best programmers and the worst programmers is widely rumored to be an order of magnitude: I think in the future, we'll see the pay catch up, outside the fairly narrow range of quants on Wall Street. (And the difference between the average programmer and the best day laborer is probably going to keep climbing, too. Returns on one of them keep increasing, you do the math.) It is a great time to be alive for those of us who can leverage these trends. If I were committed to equality of outcomes, though, I would be terrified.
- paraschopra 17y ago
  Regarding #1, I think you are right that there are a lot of niches which can be tapped and which will make one a moderate amount of money. But problem arises when tons of creative people choose a single niche (e.g. todo lists). Choosing a niche and executing well is important but what stops from other fishes having their lunch at your part of pond? Regarding #2, do you think luck is involved there in getting to jump the step function?

krschultz 17y ago

Is anyone else's Bubble Alarm going off? These are the kind of articles that are often a sign.

tomjen2 17y ago
My bubble alarm has been going on for years, but I predicted that neighter Facebook nor Twitter would ever have a viable business model and I have already been proved wrong on Facebook at least - I assumed that it was the harder of the two. Having said that, it still doesn't smell right.