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I think this line of reasoning conflates deflation caused by a massive deleveraging crisis and deflation caused by more of the economy jumping on the train of d
by natrius 12y ago
I think this line of reasoning conflates deflation caused by a massive deleveraging crisis and deflation caused by more of the economy jumping on the train of dramatic price decreases that the technology industry has always dealt with.
Our global deflation problem is caused by too much debt. Debt can't increase faster than the economy indefinitely because it becomes impossible to pay back. But it had been increasing in that fashion for quite some time before the financial crisis. We're now living in a world where debt isn't growing at those fast rates, and central banks have been trying to keep the economy going without it.
Central banks have kept the economy going by buying low-risk assets with new money, which makes the value of assets in general go up. They've also set interest rates to zero, which makes it attractive to borrow money. Asset holders feel richer and spend more money than they would otherwise. Investment opportunities become more attractive because it's cheaper to borrow money to take advantage of those opportunities. We get economic growth. These were reasonable actions for our central banks to take.
But eventually, the actions of our central banks will need to be reversed. Low interest rates and quantitative easing in perpetuity will eventually cause inflation when the economy gets healthier, or asset prices will get too high for people to continue to expect future gains. This is why the Fed is planning on raising interest rates this year. The problem is that raising interest rates will cause people to stop expecting higher asset prices as well, and they will sell.
Deflation in the long run is something to worry about, but it's strange for me to hear long term worries when we have more serious short term worries. How do you stop our extraordinary monetary policies without dramatically popping the asset bubble and causing the problems that our policies have been avoiding for six years?
- surfmike 12y agoThe Fed is still not even hitting its own 2% inflation target. Long-term inflation indicators are showing we'll have below-target inflation for a long time. People have been saying inflation is right around the corner ever since QE started, and it's nowhere in sight. I would argue exactly the opposite -- deflation in the short term is something we should absolutely worry about. We know very well how to put a lid on inflation once it starts, but for now we have exactly the opposite problem.
- adventured 12y agoSupposedly is not hitting its own 2% target. The cost of healthcare, tuition, a house, oil, gold, corn, electricity, etc - all have increased dramatically since 2000.
- natrius 12y agoImminent inflation isn't the only problem to worry about. The main problem is investors believing that the market has topped. If we keep rates low and the world's central banks keep buying assets, eventually prices will reach a point that people stop believing. The other option is that when expected inflation goes up, people will predict that interest rates will go up, and as a result, they'll believe that the market has topped. If asset prices drop precipitously, we might be back in 2008 (or worse).