5 ms·

It's been really interesting watching the media constantly trying to predict the "End of America" over the last 7 years since 2008. As far as I can tell, the o

It's been really interesting watching the media constantly trying to predict the "End of America" over the last 7 years since 2008. As far as I can tell, the only reason this saga continues is because of the marketing hype it builds. Most of the people I know who watch only mainstream news all believe that we are going to have a massive crash that will completely kill our country in a few years. When you actually ignore the hype and look at purely the numbers you'll see that the US is doing incredible compared to the rest of the world right now. The Euro is crashing, Russia is in ruins, Saudi Arabia's OPEC squeeze is now hurting all of the other "US enemies" while the net effect of the oil crisis on the US is mostly zero-sum. I'm incredibly bullish on the US right now. Sure we'll probably have another small crash in the next few years but we'll recover quickly and keep on surging for the foreseeable future. That's the nature of market cycles! It's super easy to be negative and for some reason that's the cool trend for people to take right now but frankly the macro-view of the facts say differently.

toyg 12y ago
> The Euro is crashing Well, for an anti-hyper, there's a ton of spin right there ;) The Euro is not crashing, it's pretty stable against most currencies except (re)surgent USD and GBP. It has some structural issues to overcome, not unlike USD, but "crashing" it is not.
- adventured 12y ago
  The Euro lost 21% of its value against the global reserve currency in 9.5 months or so. For a major currency, that is pretty close to crashing. It's going to get worse yet, given the US is on the upswing (strengthening the dollar), and Europe is still mired in economic disaster and moving into QE mode (weakening the Euro).
  - toyg 12y ago
    Unless you also imply that other reliable currencies like AUD are "crashing", that's just the USD growing again after living in hell since 2008. AS I said, there are some structural issues to overcome, but it's not like the USD is heaven on Earth: US debt is still huge and the US government keeps having silly lockdowns every few months.
Shivetya 12y ago
The US will be fine until the promises of the governments, more state and city oriented, come to fruition. The pension debts are so high; think Greece times almost a hundred; that cities will have to bankrupt to avoid them and even then some may not be able to without changes to state Constitutions. (estimates are near four trillion dollars) All this happens in the background as the can gets kicked down the road again and again but courts are starting to push back forcing cities and states to pay. Then you have the Chicago experiment, where the public unions are ganging up to put one of their own into the mayor slot so they can pay their members what they are "owed". As in, the power of the public employee unions may come to the point where they run their cities top to bottom and the payout will damage the economy. So be bullish, Europe is already suffering through their own pay the piper with Greece as the first in line. Liberalism will collapse like communism for the same reasons, you cannot promise people everything and not pay up. A market crash may or may not happen on its own, there is definitely some very overvalued companies out there; Uber and Tesla come to mind; but watch carefully the play in courts as the tax man will be coming hard and businesses are the first to pay because they are easy to brand as evil
- unabridged 12y ago
  The public unions are just a tip of the entitlements that need to be paid out. Public union retirees were people with steady employment for 20+ years, they probably have houses and other investments. What about all the other people hitting retirement age who were bounced around many jobs and never even got a pension? This is how basic income will begin, a critical mass of retirees who either lost pensions through company fraud, municipal bankruptcy, or who never even had a pension in the first place. All it takes is a few southern populists to throw off the chains of fiscal conservatism and the money will flow. Greece will never happen here, because we can print as much money as we want. We have spent trillions in Iraq and interest rates haven't even gone up. We could easily put trillions into the hands of the poorest Americans and the Fed would still be able to sell debt below 5% interest.
  - innguest 12y ago
    > We have spent trillions in Iraq and interest rates haven't even gone up. That's because they're set by the Fed and not allowed to fluctuate according to market pressure. Surely you knew this? It's the same reason why, some argue, the Fed can't raise rates now (because of leveraged derivatives).
shillster 12y ago
Spoken like a Buffet-believer
innguest 12y ago
Nice to meet you, I'm the guy that sells you put options and makes money off your "bullish" beliefs. Could you tell me what MainStream Media on Earth has been predicting the crash of the US economy for 7 years? To me the MSM seem to have been cheerleading the Fed all along. Haven't they been making fun of Peter Schiff all along or am I living in a parallel universe? And if you're so good with numbers and are up for a challenge, you could try and explain the horrible numbers that get posted daily on zerohedge. They need educated Keynesians such as yourself to disabuse them of those horrible graphs they keep showing.
- adambratt 12y ago
  Sure send me an email if you want to have a real conversation. Zerohedge hasn't published a positive sentiment in years. I know some of the guys that post there and they really do profit from stirring up the hype.
  - innguest 12y ago
    I just wanted the answer to my question, but I guess if you had one you'd just give it to me and not hide it. They haven't published a positive sentiment in 7 years of ZIRP? You don't say? And they profit from stirring up the hype? OMG, call the profit police. This "they profit from it" argument does not work with capitalists. I'd hope they profit from doing what they do, because that means they'll be in business that much longer. I am not against anyone profiting from speaking their mind. I am endowed with critical thinking skills and I can judge their arguments for what they are.

toyg 12y ago

> The Euro is crashing Well, for an anti-hyper, there's a ton of spin right there ;) The Euro is not crashing, it's pretty stable against most currencies except (re)surgent USD and GBP. It has some structural issues to overcome, not unlike USD, but "crashing" it is not.

adventured 12y ago
The Euro lost 21% of its value against the global reserve currency in 9.5 months or so. For a major currency, that is pretty close to crashing. It's going to get worse yet, given the US is on the upswing (strengthening the dollar), and Europe is still mired in economic disaster and moving into QE mode (weakening the Euro).
- toyg 12y ago
  Unless you also imply that other reliable currencies like AUD are "crashing", that's just the USD growing again after living in hell since 2008. AS I said, there are some structural issues to overcome, but it's not like the USD is heaven on Earth: US debt is still huge and the US government keeps having silly lockdowns every few months.

Shivetya 12y ago

The US will be fine until the promises of the governments, more state and city oriented, come to fruition. The pension debts are so high; think Greece times almost a hundred; that cities will have to bankrupt to avoid them and even then some may not be able to without changes to state Constitutions. (estimates are near four trillion dollars) All this happens in the background as the can gets kicked down the road again and again but courts are starting to push back forcing cities and states to pay. Then you have the Chicago experiment, where the public unions are ganging up to put one of their own into the mayor slot so they can pay their members what they are "owed". As in, the power of the public employee unions may come to the point where they run their cities top to bottom and the payout will damage the economy. So be bullish, Europe is already suffering through their own pay the piper with Greece as the first in line. Liberalism will collapse like communism for the same reasons, you cannot promise people everything and not pay up. A market crash may or may not happen on its own, there is definitely some very overvalued companies out there; Uber and Tesla come to mind; but watch carefully the play in courts as the tax man will be coming hard and businesses are the first to pay because they are easy to brand as evil

unabridged 12y ago
The public unions are just a tip of the entitlements that need to be paid out. Public union retirees were people with steady employment for 20+ years, they probably have houses and other investments. What about all the other people hitting retirement age who were bounced around many jobs and never even got a pension? This is how basic income will begin, a critical mass of retirees who either lost pensions through company fraud, municipal bankruptcy, or who never even had a pension in the first place. All it takes is a few southern populists to throw off the chains of fiscal conservatism and the money will flow. Greece will never happen here, because we can print as much money as we want. We have spent trillions in Iraq and interest rates haven't even gone up. We could easily put trillions into the hands of the poorest Americans and the Fed would still be able to sell debt below 5% interest.
- innguest 12y ago
  > We have spent trillions in Iraq and interest rates haven't even gone up. That's because they're set by the Fed and not allowed to fluctuate according to market pressure. Surely you knew this? It's the same reason why, some argue, the Fed can't raise rates now (because of leveraged derivatives).

shillster 12y ago

Spoken like a Buffet-believer

innguest 12y ago

Nice to meet you, I'm the guy that sells you put options and makes money off your "bullish" beliefs. Could you tell me what MainStream Media on Earth has been predicting the crash of the US economy for 7 years? To me the MSM seem to have been cheerleading the Fed all along. Haven't they been making fun of Peter Schiff all along or am I living in a parallel universe? And if you're so good with numbers and are up for a challenge, you could try and explain the horrible numbers that get posted daily on zerohedge. They need educated Keynesians such as yourself to disabuse them of those horrible graphs they keep showing.

adambratt 12y ago
Sure send me an email if you want to have a real conversation. Zerohedge hasn't published a positive sentiment in years. I know some of the guys that post there and they really do profit from stirring up the hype.
- innguest 12y ago
  I just wanted the answer to my question, but I guess if you had one you'd just give it to me and not hide it. They haven't published a positive sentiment in 7 years of ZIRP? You don't say? And they profit from stirring up the hype? OMG, call the profit police. This "they profit from it" argument does not work with capitalists. I'd hope they profit from doing what they do, because that means they'll be in business that much longer. I am not against anyone profiting from speaking their mind. I am endowed with critical thinking skills and I can judge their arguments for what they are.