3 ms·

I spent the weekend with a bunch of venture partners at a firm's off site and Magic came up a few times in conversation: not ''is it a killer idea?'' (of course

by nugget 12y ago

I spent the weekend with a bunch of venture partners at a firm's off site and Magic came up a few times in conversation: not ''is it a killer idea?'' (of course, if it works) but ''can it scale?''. Some business models simply don't scale until some amorphous inflection point in tech/attitudes/etc hits, no matter how much we want them to. There's a healthy argument to make for raising and burning a bunch of money to aggregate users together in anticipation of the market shortly hitting that scaling inflection point, but it's still a big gamble (albeit one I think Magic and a handful of competitors will all take). And then ultimately if it can scale, I think Amex and Visa/MC buy up competitors and make it a loss leader/free service attached to their card services. I predict a lot of new SMS services headed our way. e.g. If I'm EXP on American Airlines, why don't they have a concierge # for me to text with? Why doesn't Seamless have a # for food delivery? etc.

aqme28 12y ago
I don't think there will be "a lot of new SMS services headed our way." The real value to the user for Magic is that you can use it for everything. Pizza one day, flight reservations the next. You don't need to google multiple numbers for things. And if there were multiple SMS services for pizza ordering or flight reservations or whatever, then Magic would just subcontract out to those smaller services, and people would still just use Magic.
- adventured 12y ago
  Magic isn't going to exist in a year, so that's a non-premise. They're going to drown and the temporary hype will go away (needed to support the volume, which will fall out from under their service just about the time they're trying to raise serious capital), long before they can scale up and deliver on the premise. Someone else will make a lot of money off of a service like this, but it is not going to be Magic.
  - aqme28 12y ago
    Why is this service not sustainable within a year? Seems like a totally valid business to me. edit: Next year, one of us is going to be laughing.
- nugget 12y ago
  Keep in mind that sometimes the less you do, the better you do it. "Doing everything" sounds great but often just means the execution of various "things" suffers. Whereas Seamless for example just focuses on food and can no doubt provide better service there.
DonHopkins 12y ago
The term "SMS Services" reminds me of the archaic term "CD-ROM Industry", which was so popular before that "industry" was blindsided by the Internet. Fetishizing the medium itself, without taking a step back and asking "what's the actual product, and the best way to deliver it?" Why SMS and not Siri? "Users love CD-ROM - it is user friendly." -- http://forge.fh-potsdam.de/~IFLA/INSPEL/94-3laan.pdf http://forge.fh-potsdam.de/~IFLA/INSPEL/94-3laan.pdf In retrospect, that line sounds like Lucille Ball describing Vitameatavegemin: "It's so tasty, too! Just like candy." -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmOLpeKwWGI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmOLpeKwWGI

by nugget 12y ago

aqme28 12y ago

I don't think there will be "a lot of new SMS services headed our way." The real value to the user for Magic is that you can use it for everything. Pizza one day, flight reservations the next. You don't need to google multiple numbers for things. And if there were multiple SMS services for pizza ordering or flight reservations or whatever, then Magic would just subcontract out to those smaller services, and people would still just use Magic.

adventured 12y ago
Magic isn't going to exist in a year, so that's a non-premise. They're going to drown and the temporary hype will go away (needed to support the volume, which will fall out from under their service just about the time they're trying to raise serious capital), long before they can scale up and deliver on the premise. Someone else will make a lot of money off of a service like this, but it is not going to be Magic.
- aqme28 12y ago
  Why is this service not sustainable within a year? Seems like a totally valid business to me. edit: Next year, one of us is going to be laughing.
nugget 12y ago
Keep in mind that sometimes the less you do, the better you do it. "Doing everything" sounds great but often just means the execution of various "things" suffers. Whereas Seamless for example just focuses on food and can no doubt provide better service there.

DonHopkins 12y ago

The term "SMS Services" reminds me of the archaic term "CD-ROM Industry", which was so popular before that "industry" was blindsided by the Internet. Fetishizing the medium itself, without taking a step back and asking "what's the actual product, and the best way to deliver it?" Why SMS and not Siri? "Users love CD-ROM - it is user friendly." -- http://forge.fh-potsdam.de/~IFLA/INSPEL/94-3laan.pdf http://forge.fh-potsdam.de/~IFLA/INSPEL/94-3laan.pdf In retrospect, that line sounds like Lucille Ball describing Vitameatavegemin: "It's so tasty, too! Just like candy." -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmOLpeKwWGI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmOLpeKwWGI