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So much criticism of Google! My question: Why on earth would Google want to cede any significant chunk of the personal transport value stream to Uber - or acqui

So much criticism of Google! My question: Why on earth would Google want to cede any significant chunk of the personal transport value stream to Uber - or acquire them at a $40Bil+ valuation - when the main (only?) semi-uniquely valuable thing Uber have (a large network of drivers) is worth approximately zero dollars in a self-driving vehicle scenario. Uber are valuable and effective in a human-driven vehicle model because they have achieved critical mass in the pool of human drivers on their network, and are in a position to grow that pool. In a self driving vehicle model critical mass of vehicles/drivers is available to anyone with a decent line of credit.

roskilli 12y ago
Surely the riders install base is quite valuable if both were to have as good tech and self driving cars
- disillusioned 12y ago
  Yeah, sort of, but Google has the unique positioning of a much larger install base by virtue of Google Maps. If they integrated ride hailing and routing (essentially, their Uber competitor) directly into Maps, then Uber's rider base doesn't matter, though their head-start onboarding drivers would help for awhile.
  - visakanv 12y ago
    That was what I was thinking. I already use Google Maps like crazy. Add a "get picked up by driverless car now" button and I'm probably sold. (I don't use Uber though, I'm too broke for that right now.)
- mathattack 12y ago
  Yes - very important. Google has failed entering other markets. The name isn't enough. But... This involves some hard science, which they're outstanding at.
- venomsnake 12y ago
  > Surely the riders install base is quite valuable if both Google can force install their app on any android device. And if they are first driverless car owners I expect very high google ranking for all of Uber controversies in their search engine.
mathattack 12y ago
The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone who wants to go somewhere at any point in time. (And where they all wanted to go in the past) This is what's worth $40 billion. If two companies have automatic cars, the one who knows where they want to go wins. Perhaps Google wanted to buy at $2 billion or $5, but not at $40.
- dkarapetyan 12y ago
  How many data points do you think you need to make predictions about where people want to go? Uber's data isn't as hard to get as you think. The article mentions also that Uber is already using Google maps to do routing so Google already has all the data it needs.
  - mathattack 12y ago
    Google Maps has destinations and directions. Not sure if they store histories of where people searched for directions. (Anyone in the know have thoughts?) Uber has, or eventually will have, "User 1VB7X has hailed an Uber from 45th and 6th nine times out of ten when they were within two blocks. They are now 5 blocks away and headed in that direction." If you add this up for everyone who has the app on their phone, it becomes incredibly powerful for optimizing the motion of Uber cars. I'm still not 100% convinced that Uber wins, but the value of the company is in their data, and the location signals they get from everyone who has the app.
    - andygates 12y ago
      I have a directions search history, and as half of my searches are "from here", that ties my searches to my location as well.
    - uptown 12y ago
wahsd 12y ago
As much as I am also inclined to jump on the bandwagon to chastize Google for having approaching zero capacity to compete with Uber in this space, I know that they are moving on this for the same reason that Uber is working on developing their own autonomous / self driving vehicles. As fun as the Uber-jerking is, the future, if not sabotaged by all the many different interests that have high stakes in doing so, will be one where there are few if any real competitors to one monopolistic offerer of autonomous transportation services. Obviously Uber wants to be that one monopoly and I expect they will continue with their dirty tricks to get there, but others will also try to knock the king from the hill before he can complete his castle. Lyft, Curb, now Google, they will all try to beat Uber to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

roskilli 12y ago

Surely the riders install base is quite valuable if both were to have as good tech and self driving cars

disillusioned 12y ago
Yeah, sort of, but Google has the unique positioning of a much larger install base by virtue of Google Maps. If they integrated ride hailing and routing (essentially, their Uber competitor) directly into Maps, then Uber's rider base doesn't matter, though their head-start onboarding drivers would help for awhile.
- visakanv 12y ago
  That was what I was thinking. I already use Google Maps like crazy. Add a "get picked up by driverless car now" button and I'm probably sold. (I don't use Uber though, I'm too broke for that right now.)
mathattack 12y ago
Yes - very important. Google has failed entering other markets. The name isn't enough. But... This involves some hard science, which they're outstanding at.
venomsnake 12y ago
> Surely the riders install base is quite valuable if both Google can force install their app on any android device. And if they are first driverless car owners I expect very high google ranking for all of Uber controversies in their search engine.

mathattack 12y ago

The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone who wants to go somewhere at any point in time. (And where they all wanted to go in the past) This is what's worth $40 billion. If two companies have automatic cars, the one who knows where they want to go wins. Perhaps Google wanted to buy at $2 billion or $5, but not at $40.

dkarapetyan 12y ago
How many data points do you think you need to make predictions about where people want to go? Uber's data isn't as hard to get as you think. The article mentions also that Uber is already using Google maps to do routing so Google already has all the data it needs.
- mathattack 12y ago
  Google Maps has destinations and directions. Not sure if they store histories of where people searched for directions. (Anyone in the know have thoughts?) Uber has, or eventually will have, "User 1VB7X has hailed an Uber from 45th and 6th nine times out of ten when they were within two blocks. They are now 5 blocks away and headed in that direction." If you add this up for everyone who has the app on their phone, it becomes incredibly powerful for optimizing the motion of Uber cars. I'm still not 100% convinced that Uber wins, but the value of the company is in their data, and the location signals they get from everyone who has the app.
  - andygates 12y ago
    I have a directions search history, and as half of my searches are "from here", that ties my searches to my location as well.
  - uptown 12y ago

wahsd 12y ago

As much as I am also inclined to jump on the bandwagon to chastize Google for having approaching zero capacity to compete with Uber in this space, I know that they are moving on this for the same reason that Uber is working on developing their own autonomous / self driving vehicles. As fun as the Uber-jerking is, the future, if not sabotaged by all the many different interests that have high stakes in doing so, will be one where there are few if any real competitors to one monopolistic offerer of autonomous transportation services. Obviously Uber wants to be that one monopoly and I expect they will continue with their dirty tricks to get there, but others will also try to knock the king from the hill before he can complete his castle. Lyft, Curb, now Google, they will all try to beat Uber to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.