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"government is a slow moving, inefficient behemoth" It most certainly is, but that's not relevant. The important thing here is that so far only governments ha
by api 12y ago
"government is a slow moving, inefficient behemoth"
It most certainly is, but that's not relevant.
The important thing here is that so far only governments have had the capacity to make investments that are both of:
- High risk / high payoff
- Long term payoff / broad payoff
The second part is the catch. Private funding mechanisms can make investments that are high risk / high payoff as long as they are both short term enough to fit within private investment vehicle life cycles and narrow enough to allow value created to be monetized -- captured, in other words.
Things like basic research and fundamental invention are long term and broad -- they add value across wide swaths of society and across generational time scales. As such they really can't be monetized using any known financial construct. Private funding vehicles simply cannot invest in such things as there is no potential for private return.
Governments can make these kinds of investments because they are likely to be around long enough to see the return and because they can capture the return by taxing the entire economy -- in other words, they capture return by long-term economic growth and national strength/prestige.
Until or unless someone invents a private investment vehicle that can do this, we are stuck with government as the sole practical financier of the first steps in the technology chain. It is indeed inefficient, but an inefficient financier and generator of invention is superior to none.
Lately I've been leaning toward the view that "market fundamentalism" is partly responsible for the collapse of deep revolutionary invention after around 1970 or so. The timing is certainly right and the causal mechanism seems to be there. The symbolic point would be the cancellation of the Apollo program. By contrast anti-market fundamentalism is probably why the USSR invented a lot but never followed through on most of it. The ideal is to combine the systems. Fundamentalist dogmas are idiotic.
Edit:
Governments probably aren't that good at invention either. They just look great when compared against nothing.
That being said, governments are terrible at every step after fundamental invention. That's why Engelbart/SRI had to be followed by PARC and Apple and such, otherwise what they invented would still be a lab curiosity. They just don't have the mechanisms or institutional culture to "ship" or innovate.
Invention and innovation are not the same thing. Saying they are is arguing that all combinatorial fitness landscapes are smooth and "well behaved," and if that were the case machine learning would be a lot easier. Examples:
Invention: discovery and harnessing of radio waves, an absolutely unprecedented step change in technology. First we had no ability to communicate both wirelessly and invisibly over great distances, and then we did. Inventions are qualitative changes that open vast new regions of the combinatorial space -- they're analogous in evolutionary learning theory terms to journeys across physical space to land on a new planet.
Innovation: morse code radio -> voice -> high quality / FM voice -> television -> digital -> spread spectrum / TDMA digital -> ... Innovations are quantitative changes that are more akin to gradient descent in learning theory terms.
The evolutionary analogy extends both ways. There are inventions in biology too, like the appearance of photosynthesis or eukaryotic cell structures. These are unlikely events and therefore do not occur very often in the fossil record. Innovation occurs constantly.
Biology could invent more if there were a god who intentionally biased the system in ways that facilitated it, but as far as we know no such thing exists. But for cultural evolution -- the evolution of extended phenotype -- we are the gods and can indeed do that.
Edit #2:
I'm sure people will cite cases where independents or small academic teams operating on only small amounts of funding have invented world-changing things. Two things about that. One is that it was more common back when science was in its earlier stages -- as science has developed we have kept raising the bar in terms of how much capital is required to keep going. Today the capital and labor requirements to make fundamental inventions are (in most fields) far outside the reach of small funding vehicles or individuals. Second is that this is just plain uncommon. Even back then most of these folks had deep pocketed benefactors or were themselves wealthy. There are always exceptions but you shouldn't base policy on exceptions.
- walshemj 12y agoIt depends when shit matters they can move very fast eg the crash program to fit sidewinders to harriers for the Falkland's war. or say the production of the U2 by the CIA
- api 12y agoYes, pressure can speed up government work. Typically only war or the threat of war does that, since fundamentally governments exist to monopolize force. As a result, all government culture is essentially military -- even the civilian government has a military feel and is often staffed by ex-military.
- eli_gottlieb 12y ago>Lately I've been leaning toward the view that "market fundamentalism" is partly responsible for the collapse of deep revolutionary invention after around 1970 or so. The timing is certainly right and the causal mechanism seems to be there. The symbolic point would be the cancellation of the Apollo program. One of the most elegant critiques of neoliberalism I've ever heard is but a few words: "the cancellation of the long term". Markets are great aggregators of localized information, localized in space, social networks, and time. The downside is that this means they get stuck in local optima and don't really use long-term information very well. They're really just massively parallel, distributed hill-climbing algorithms for economic production and allocation. So when you're looking to move from one hill to an entirely different hill, you need something less like a combinatorial hill-climber and more like an intelligent agent that enacts coherent long-term plans. That's where the state comes in, and in fact, where it never left, since states enforce the property, debt, and contract laws that keep markets functioning in the first place. The counterpoint is that companies like Google (Google X and the like) or individuals like Thiel and Musk have managed to show that once you get sufficiently rich mega-rich people, who are completely secure in their wealth, they can afford to make long-term plans that might temporarily spite the market (like starting Calico instead of buying an Instagram competitor). The problem is both that the public then has no control over the process, and that there's no particular reason for the mega-rich to make these long-term plans other than as personal hobby-horses: these guys are techno-futurist nerds, nobody made them pour their money into radical life extension, space exploration, or artificial intelligence.