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This should illustrate why getting "off oil" should be such a priority. That doesn't mean totally phasing it out, which would probably take centuries, but it do

by api 12y ago

This should illustrate why getting "off oil" should be such a priority. That doesn't mean totally phasing it out, which would probably take centuries, but it does mean getting to the point where oil is no longer the rate limiting reagent in the economy. Right now our hopes, dreams, futures, and lives are pinned to the oil price graph. If it doesn't scare you, you haven't thought about it very much.

krschultz 12y ago
Unfortunately falling oil prices puts a lot of pressure on alternative energy sources. We were just getting to the point where the unsubsidized price of wind & solar was within spitting distance of oil. Though replacing coal with natural gas is a net win for the environment, and that might accelerate with natural gas prices dropping through the floor.
- saryant 12y ago
  Natural gas prices in the US should stabilize as the American producers begin exporting to the world market.
brandon272 12y ago
Are you referring to climate change (i.e. low oil prices reduce efforts to move to alternative energy) or revenues from oil?
- api 12y ago
  I'm referring to the eventual depletion of oil and other fossil fuels, which is the single greatest existential threat faced by humanity. It's far greater than worst case climate change scenarios. A good way to think about fossil fuel depletion: Imagine that there is a planet killer asteroid heading toward us. We've known about it since at least the 1950s, and there it is... heading slowly inexorably toward us. But for various reasons our math isn't perfect, so we don't know exactly when it's going to hit. It might be in the 2030s, or the 2050s, but almost certainly no later than 2100. When it does we all die. Nobody is talking about it, and very few are doing anything about it. Right now if we started to really run out of fossil fuels, everyone would starve to death. Our population is at least two orders of magnitude larger than what can be supported without that level of energy use. There would also probably be a global war, possibly thermonuclear, as every economy collapses at once and various warmongers and crackpots take over every country's leadership. There's an article about post-9/11 CIA torture on HN's front page right now... that was after an attack that just killed a few thousand people. Imagine the political lunacy that would ensue as the whole of modern civilization collapses in on itself, everyone's savings evaporates in a series of hyper-deflations, stock markets crash and then crash and then crash some more, etc. Every major nation would get a Hitler. Like I said... if you aren't afraid of this you haven't looked into it deeply or thought about it very much.

by api 12y ago

krschultz 12y ago

Unfortunately falling oil prices puts a lot of pressure on alternative energy sources. We were just getting to the point where the unsubsidized price of wind & solar was within spitting distance of oil. Though replacing coal with natural gas is a net win for the environment, and that might accelerate with natural gas prices dropping through the floor.

saryant 12y ago
Natural gas prices in the US should stabilize as the American producers begin exporting to the world market.

brandon272 12y ago

Are you referring to climate change (i.e. low oil prices reduce efforts to move to alternative energy) or revenues from oil?

api 12y ago
I'm referring to the eventual depletion of oil and other fossil fuels, which is the single greatest existential threat faced by humanity. It's far greater than worst case climate change scenarios. A good way to think about fossil fuel depletion: Imagine that there is a planet killer asteroid heading toward us. We've known about it since at least the 1950s, and there it is... heading slowly inexorably toward us. But for various reasons our math isn't perfect, so we don't know exactly when it's going to hit. It might be in the 2030s, or the 2050s, but almost certainly no later than 2100. When it does we all die. Nobody is talking about it, and very few are doing anything about it. Right now if we started to really run out of fossil fuels, everyone would starve to death. Our population is at least two orders of magnitude larger than what can be supported without that level of energy use. There would also probably be a global war, possibly thermonuclear, as every economy collapses at once and various warmongers and crackpots take over every country's leadership. There's an article about post-9/11 CIA torture on HN's front page right now... that was after an attack that just killed a few thousand people. Imagine the political lunacy that would ensue as the whole of modern civilization collapses in on itself, everyone's savings evaporates in a series of hyper-deflations, stock markets crash and then crash and then crash some more, etc. Every major nation would get a Hitler. Like I said... if you aren't afraid of this you haven't looked into it deeply or thought about it very much.