20 ms·

So in the vein of: "the future is already here, just not evenly distributed.." Where is this superintelligence being built now? Where do the people here thin

So in the vein of: "the future is already here, just not evenly distributed.." Where is this superintelligence being built now? Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from?

AndrewKemendo 12y ago
Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from? This question is actually the topic of my masters research which will be published Summer of '15. The top probability estimates are as follows in order of our likelihood: 1. Private for-profit company 2. State (Government/Military) laboratory 3. University laboratory 4. Open source project 5. Lone Wolf developer These are based largely on where incentives for AGI implementation lie, where funding is most available and where activity is occurring.
- georgeecollins 12y ago
  Great answer! Thank you. Since you seem to really have thought about this: what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been achieved? I can imagine a situation where someone suspects that one of these projects listed above is "superintelligent". What would be the test of that?
  - AndrewKemendo 12y ago
    what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been achieved? The AGI community hasn't agreed on a test or metric, however the best answer I have found in a study is the work of José Hernández-Orallo and his "Anytime intelligence test" [1]. Practically though, I personally think we will know once enough people are convinced, a kind of "know it when I see it" [2] situation. [1] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370210001554 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370210... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it
- _random_ 12y ago
  I would rate #5 above #4 :) - trust in lone mad geniuses.
  - jotm 12y ago
    An open source project is likely to get several mad geniuses, which is probably why it's rated higher.

So in the vein of: "the future is already here, just not evenly distributed.." Where is this superintelligence being built now? Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from?

AndrewKemendo 12y ago

Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from? This question is actually the topic of my masters research which will be published Summer of '15. The top probability estimates are as follows in order of our likelihood: 1. Private for-profit company 2. State (Government/Military) laboratory 3. University laboratory 4. Open source project 5. Lone Wolf developer These are based largely on where incentives for AGI implementation lie, where funding is most available and where activity is occurring.

georgeecollins 12y ago
Great answer! Thank you. Since you seem to really have thought about this: what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been achieved? I can imagine a situation where someone suspects that one of these projects listed above is "superintelligent". What would be the test of that?
- AndrewKemendo 12y ago
  what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been achieved? The AGI community hasn't agreed on a test or metric, however the best answer I have found in a study is the work of José Hernández-Orallo and his "Anytime intelligence test" [1]. Practically though, I personally think we will know once enough people are convinced, a kind of "know it when I see it" [2] situation. [1] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370210001554 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370210... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it
_random_ 12y ago
I would rate #5 above #4 :) - trust in lone mad geniuses.
- jotm 12y ago
  An open source project is likely to get several mad geniuses, which is probably why it's rated higher.