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While I love the number crunching ethos, and think these guys are giving it one hell of a go - I will go on the record and say that they will ultimately fail be

by Chukwu 17y ago

While I love the number crunching ethos, and think these guys are giving it one hell of a go - I will go on the record and say that they will ultimately fail because they are operating under many false premises, a few being: 1. People do not change their minds. By algorithmically matching based on answers to questions, you must assume that those answers are meaningful. And meaningful means CONSISTENT. And people are NOT consistent. Especially on complex issues; in fact there are whole professions (sales (insurance, real estate, car, etc) comes immediately to mind) where success is based on one's ability to get people to change their minds. (That example is offered as evidence, not proof - but proof probably isnt a complicated exercise) 2. Like Thinkers make Great Daters Assuming you are even GETTING like thinkers, (which is tenuous at best) where is it written that like thinkers make great companions? You don't want to have absolutely nothing in common, (at least a common language is necessary) but it isn't linear and i would be surprised if there were any correlation let alone one that was non-asymptotic. Simply - more like thoughts does not entail more compatibility. 3. Looks aren't EVERYTHING Just based on sheer observation - this is not the case. It is unfortunate, and it speaks badly about human nature, but most human beings make judgments based on appearances. And this "appearance crutch" is only exacerbated when it comes to looking for someone to lay with. How many single, male, bleeding heart liberals would take a swing at Sarah Palin if given an iota of an opportunity? Again - offered as evidence, not proof.

philwelch 17y ago
"By algorithmically matching based on answers to questions, you must assume that those answers are meaningful. And meaningful means CONSISTENT. And people are NOT consistent." In practice, the user base for OkCupid will change. And old users will reanswer questions sometimes too. "Assuming you are even GETTING like thinkers, (which is tenuous at best) where is it written that like thinkers make great companions?" That's not how it works. It's not as simple as "answer match questions and we hook you up with people who answered the same way". You can specify which answers your ideal match would give, even if those answers conflict with the answers you yourself give. "most human beings make judgments based on appearances" Which is why you upload photos to OkCupid instead of just using match percentages.
- Chukwu 17y ago
  Uploading photos isn't what supposedly sets okcupid apart, right? They aren't using physical attractiveness in their matching algorithms and that is the point I was trying to make. Your other point has been addressed above; people don't know what they want. Asking them what they want their "ideal match" to answer is as foolhardy as asking them to describe their "ideal mate" neuron by neuron.
  - philwelch 17y ago
    Given a photo by itself, or a photo plus output from a matching algorithm, the photo plus output from a matching algorithm gives more information. My point is that judging physical attractiveness is (mostly!) a solved problem on dating sites, so your main competitive advantage is attacking the other problems. People do not, in fact, know what they want. But they can make educated guesses.
    - Chukwu 17y ago
      Judging physical attractiveness on dating sites isn't even a partially solved problem - I invite you to name the sites that you have found that are close, as a counterexample. How does one go about making an EDUCATED guess with NO knowledge? To put it plainly - statistical information assimilated from meaningless data is also meaningless. I don't know what my perfect mate looks like - and no one does. If you accept that premise, you are then forced to accept that any data gathered from some person A about what their perfect mate P is like is MEANINGLESS. So statistical algorithms from any such information yield meaningless data as well; ergo okcupid cannot do what it hopes to do. QED
      - michaelkeenan 17y ago
        > I don't know what my perfect mate looks like - and no one does. While I agree that one's guess at a perfect partner might not be 100% accurate, are you sure you have no information on this at all? Here are some OkCupid questions. Would you be equally willing to date someone regardless of how they answered these questions? -Is homosexuality a sin? -How important is religion/God in your life? -Are you happy with your life? -Is interracial marriage a bad idea?
potatolicious 17y ago
"where is it written that like thinkers make great companions?" OKCupid does not judge match percentage based on similar answers. For every question on the system it will ask for your answer and your ideal mate's answer. The system knows that some things are important to some people - but maybe not in reverse.
- Chukwu 17y ago
  4. People Know what they want Clearly they don't - otherwise they wouldn't be on okcupid in the first place.
  - HeyLaughingBoy 17y ago
    What do you mean by this?
    - Chukwu 17y ago
      Thanks for asking for clarification; it seems many have totally missed the point of this. For okcupid to employ such a method, they must then be making assumption #4. However, people do not know what they want generally - and this ignorance covers what type of person would be an ideal mate for themselves. So answering questions posed about how you would want your ideal mate to answer a question, is as I pointed out, as foolhardy an exercise as asking one to construct the mind of their ideal mate neuron by neuron. Furthermore, the people who use dating sites are just as ignorant as the rest of us about what their ideal mate might be like, or they have rejected the notion of an "ideal mate" altogether due to frustrating past experiences.

by Chukwu 17y ago

philwelch 17y ago

"By algorithmically matching based on answers to questions, you must assume that those answers are meaningful. And meaningful means CONSISTENT. And people are NOT consistent." In practice, the user base for OkCupid will change. And old users will reanswer questions sometimes too. "Assuming you are even GETTING like thinkers, (which is tenuous at best) where is it written that like thinkers make great companions?" That's not how it works. It's not as simple as "answer match questions and we hook you up with people who answered the same way". You can specify which answers your ideal match would give, even if those answers conflict with the answers you yourself give. "most human beings make judgments based on appearances" Which is why you upload photos to OkCupid instead of just using match percentages.

Chukwu 17y ago
Uploading photos isn't what supposedly sets okcupid apart, right? They aren't using physical attractiveness in their matching algorithms and that is the point I was trying to make. Your other point has been addressed above; people don't know what they want. Asking them what they want their "ideal match" to answer is as foolhardy as asking them to describe their "ideal mate" neuron by neuron.
- philwelch 17y ago
  Given a photo by itself, or a photo plus output from a matching algorithm, the photo plus output from a matching algorithm gives more information. My point is that judging physical attractiveness is (mostly!) a solved problem on dating sites, so your main competitive advantage is attacking the other problems. People do not, in fact, know what they want. But they can make educated guesses.
  - Chukwu 17y ago
    Judging physical attractiveness on dating sites isn't even a partially solved problem - I invite you to name the sites that you have found that are close, as a counterexample. How does one go about making an EDUCATED guess with NO knowledge? To put it plainly - statistical information assimilated from meaningless data is also meaningless. I don't know what my perfect mate looks like - and no one does. If you accept that premise, you are then forced to accept that any data gathered from some person A about what their perfect mate P is like is MEANINGLESS. So statistical algorithms from any such information yield meaningless data as well; ergo okcupid cannot do what it hopes to do. QED
    - michaelkeenan 17y ago
      > I don't know what my perfect mate looks like - and no one does. While I agree that one's guess at a perfect partner might not be 100% accurate, are you sure you have no information on this at all? Here are some OkCupid questions. Would you be equally willing to date someone regardless of how they answered these questions? -Is homosexuality a sin? -How important is religion/God in your life? -Are you happy with your life? -Is interracial marriage a bad idea?

potatolicious 17y ago

"where is it written that like thinkers make great companions?" OKCupid does not judge match percentage based on similar answers. For every question on the system it will ask for your answer and your ideal mate's answer. The system knows that some things are important to some people - but maybe not in reverse.

Chukwu 17y ago
4. People Know what they want Clearly they don't - otherwise they wouldn't be on okcupid in the first place.
- HeyLaughingBoy 17y ago
  What do you mean by this?
  - Chukwu 17y ago
    Thanks for asking for clarification; it seems many have totally missed the point of this. For okcupid to employ such a method, they must then be making assumption #4. However, people do not know what they want generally - and this ignorance covers what type of person would be an ideal mate for themselves. So answering questions posed about how you would want your ideal mate to answer a question, is as I pointed out, as foolhardy an exercise as asking one to construct the mind of their ideal mate neuron by neuron. Furthermore, the people who use dating sites are just as ignorant as the rest of us about what their ideal mate might be like, or they have rejected the notion of an "ideal mate" altogether due to frustrating past experiences.