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I don't see any reason to believe that is the case. I think a more logical explanation would be that consumers aren't gonna buy a new iPad every year. I bought

by dntrkv 12y ago

I don't see any reason to believe that is the case. I think a more logical explanation would be that consumers aren't gonna buy a new iPad every year. I bought an iPad 2 for my parents and they're still using it to this day and have no issues with it. Maybe next year I will get them an updated version. But if you look at the iPhone, most people are on a 2 year upgrade schedule.

jusben1369 12y ago
But you're only looking at one part of the equation which is existing customers refreshing vs net new sales. So while I agree the refresh cycle might be slower than imagined that's not the only thing going on here.
- MBCook 12y ago
  Doesn't it make more sense that without the subsidy the iPad is treated more like a computer that someone upgrades every few years when they have an issue (breakage or speed) instead of every year or two like an iPhone (where you're throwing money away)? The iPhone is pretty exceptional product, is it really fair to hold everything else to that standard? Are people going to cry foul when consumers don't replace their Apple Watch every 18 months?
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
  - jusben1369 12y ago
    Yes i think you're really onto something and it's part of a much broader discussion. There's a lot of negativity around the two year subsidized plans by telcos in the US. Yet would people be upgrading their iPhone's without these programs? Is the iPhone unique vs laptops and tablets? Or would iPhone sales drop dramatically if those programs disappeared as if we had to pay the full price out of pocket the refresh cycle would move out 12 - 24 months.
Kylekramer 12y ago
Upgrade cycles shouldn't affect sales growth unless the upgrade cycle has gotten longer since the iPad's introduction.
- MBCook 12y ago
  It's only been four years since the iPad was introduced, we may have only been through one full upgrade cycle if that. Lot of people are still using iPad 2s and Apple is still selling them (in the form of the non-Retina Mini) so that's something of a vote of confidence for them. I know many developers wish the thing would die since it's the only A5 and non-Retina iPad.
  - pjc50 12y ago
    My wife is still using my iPad 1, although rather lightly. Upgrading is finally being forced on us as it's obsolete and has become rather crash-prone.
- dntrkv 12y ago
  Another difference is that many people use the iPad as a secondary machine. They have their phone with them at all times. So if the iPad is a little sluggish at times, you won't be too bothered. But if your phone is being slow, you're gonna want to replace it right away. I think that factor, combined with the upgrade cycle, resulted in many people buying an iPad, and except for the really hardcore Apple fans, have just kept that same iPad up until today. Again this is all based on speculation, but from what I have seen from average iPad owners (not techies in the SF bubble) they are happy with their iPad 2/3 purchases even now. Also don't forget to consider that when the time to upgrade an iPad comes up, you can decide not to upgrade it and wait until it's completely dead or whatever. With the iPhone, you can usually sell your 2 year old phone for at least $200 and use that for a free upgrade to the next model. Since most people are gonna keep their plans for that time frame anyway, it's stupid not to use the subsidy.
rwmurrayVT 12y ago
It reminds me of the way automobile purchases used to be when my grandparent's were my age. It was common for people to buy a new vehicle way before it 'died'.

by dntrkv 12y ago

jusben1369 12y ago

But you're only looking at one part of the equation which is existing customers refreshing vs net new sales. So while I agree the refresh cycle might be slower than imagined that's not the only thing going on here.

MBCook 12y ago
Doesn't it make more sense that without the subsidy the iPad is treated more like a computer that someone upgrades every few years when they have an issue (breakage or speed) instead of every year or two like an iPhone (where you're throwing money away)? The iPhone is pretty exceptional product, is it really fair to hold everything else to that standard? Are people going to cry foul when consumers don't replace their Apple Watch every 18 months?
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- jusben1369 12y ago
  Yes i think you're really onto something and it's part of a much broader discussion. There's a lot of negativity around the two year subsidized plans by telcos in the US. Yet would people be upgrading their iPhone's without these programs? Is the iPhone unique vs laptops and tablets? Or would iPhone sales drop dramatically if those programs disappeared as if we had to pay the full price out of pocket the refresh cycle would move out 12 - 24 months.

Kylekramer 12y ago

Upgrade cycles shouldn't affect sales growth unless the upgrade cycle has gotten longer since the iPad's introduction.

MBCook 12y ago
It's only been four years since the iPad was introduced, we may have only been through one full upgrade cycle if that. Lot of people are still using iPad 2s and Apple is still selling them (in the form of the non-Retina Mini) so that's something of a vote of confidence for them. I know many developers wish the thing would die since it's the only A5 and non-Retina iPad.
- pjc50 12y ago
  My wife is still using my iPad 1, although rather lightly. Upgrading is finally being forced on us as it's obsolete and has become rather crash-prone.
dntrkv 12y ago
Another difference is that many people use the iPad as a secondary machine. They have their phone with them at all times. So if the iPad is a little sluggish at times, you won't be too bothered. But if your phone is being slow, you're gonna want to replace it right away. I think that factor, combined with the upgrade cycle, resulted in many people buying an iPad, and except for the really hardcore Apple fans, have just kept that same iPad up until today. Again this is all based on speculation, but from what I have seen from average iPad owners (not techies in the SF bubble) they are happy with their iPad 2/3 purchases even now. Also don't forget to consider that when the time to upgrade an iPad comes up, you can decide not to upgrade it and wait until it's completely dead or whatever. With the iPhone, you can usually sell your 2 year old phone for at least $200 and use that for a free upgrade to the next model. Since most people are gonna keep their plans for that time frame anyway, it's stupid not to use the subsidy.

rwmurrayVT 12y ago

It reminds me of the way automobile purchases used to be when my grandparent's were my age. It was common for people to buy a new vehicle way before it 'died'.