17 ms·

Apple at $400 will likely be the best value investment of my career.

by IBM 12y ago

wiredfool 12y ago
Apple at $12 (pre split, ca 1996) is the whale that got away of my investment career.
- afterburner 12y ago
  You're missing hundreds of these kinds of opportunities every year... don't be too sad.
- idlewords 12y ago
  My (non-tech) friend was sighing about this too, until he thought some more and realized he would have certainly sold it at $20. Which would possibly be an even worse feeling.
  - craigyk 12y ago
    When the G5 Powermac came out I gave some serious thought to putting that money toward stock ($3k at ~$15/share). I needed a computer too badly though... I did end up buying at 280, 320, 500 though. Sold it all off just before the last split.
  - jfb 12y ago
    My initial tranche of options were at $42 in 2004; I sold the majority in 2009. I alternate regret, rage, and joy in the fact that my extremely good luck in getting the job at Apple allowed me to completely clear my family's debts, and provide capital to start an (ultimately) unsuccessful company. Can't change the past, but oh, there are times.
    - saithier 12y ago
      Well, if it makes you feel any better, I sold 14k shares (adjusted for splits) back in 2002 to buy a used car. Didn't have nearly as much room as that house I coulda bought in SF. :-/
  - wiredfool 12y ago
    Yep. IIRC, The delay was due to not getting a brokerage account setup properly, and then having the stock pop from 12 (almost book value, or $4billion) to $17. At which point I decided that the move had already happened.
  - enraged_camel 12y ago
    This happened to me with Tesla. I bought a hundred shares at $35, and had a sell order that said, "sell if it drops more than 10%." Two months later, around $80, it fell to $70 or something like that, and mine automatically got sold. Then it jumped to $250. But I was gambling with it (it's the only time in my life I've bought a single company's stock like that), and I think in retrospect the result is quite good. I just can't shake away the "if only..." feeling. :-)
    - wiredfool 12y ago
      Would you guess I did the same thing (procrastinated) with Tesla? Thought hard about it at <20, popped to $30 and I thought the run was over.
    - andykellr 12y ago
      When I got my car in March 2013, I decided it was so amazing that I should buy some stock. I don't really invest in individual stocks so I bought 100 shares at $20. A few weeks later I sold 50 for $35 (an amazing % return). Then I watched it climb to $280, wishing I bought 1,000 instead and hung on. Despite my missed opportunity, I think the car is far better than any other vehicle on the road. There really is no comparison. 8-speed double-clutch automatic with paddle shifters? I prefer no transmission. I could go on and on. Hopefully, someday in the distant future, all of our cars will be non-smoking.
- IBM 12y ago
  No doubt. It's not that I don't think my other investments won't surpass Apple in appreciation, but it likely will on a risk-adjusted basis. I never invested 75% of my portfolio in anything, but I did for Apple.
- sixothree 12y ago
  Bought at 21 sold somewhere near 80. Two splits ago. Ugh.
- MBCook 12y ago
  My dad still remembers (and complains about) when his stockbroker was calling him begging him to buy stock in the nearly bankrupt Apple saying it was a good opportunity. Even a tiny investment would've paid off easily even by the mid 2000s.
  - jliptzin 12y ago
    But most people would probably sell when they double or triple their money. You'd have to be insanely prophetic to hold on to the stock this whole time without taking profit.
    - MBCook 12y ago
      Yeah, but it makes a good story. I know I got scared after making quite a bit of money on a small (few hundred dollar) buy in TSLA when it started dropping and got out. I thought I got lucky to make a few times return (I did) and didn't want to push my luck so I sold my few shares. Today TSLA is worth at least 3x what I sold for, but I never would have held though all those ups and downs let alone for two decades. I didn't buy the stock as a real investment, just a little fun in a company I liked.
    - icelancer 12y ago
      Also very dumb to not rebalance. No way would your portfolio justify holding that kind of balance unless your net worth moved at the same rate!
    - jkestner 12y ago
      Prophetic, or patient. I've seen about 60x return - once AAPL popped into a higher stable orbit, I didn't feel it was risky to hold onto it (a drop would still be an overall profit). I was not desperate for the money, so I stopped thinking about it.
  - selmnoo 12y ago
    Pretty useless to mourn about such hypotheticals. I had a few bitcoins about 3 years ago that were lost to a failed harddrive (beyond repair -- believe me I tried to get it come back). I think about how much I would have every now and then... but meh, this is an opportunity lost that's just somehow more realizable than probably a handful of other opportunities lost that I can't even identify. So, just keep on going, be vigilant and hope for better for another day.
- Anechoic 12y ago
  Bought at $16 in 1996: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1291314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1291314 Still have it (well, them) :).
  - cpach 12y ago
    Was the reclaim successful? :)
    - Anechoic 12y ago
      Yep :)
      - cpach 12y ago
        Congratulations then :)
idlewords 12y ago
That's defeatist talk, IBM! Snap out of it!
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
Someone1234 12y ago
For anyone confused, the reason Apple is currently only worth around $98/share (when the person above invested $400, and consider it a good investment) is that Apple split their stock in June this year. Before the split it was at $645.57/each, they gave everyone 7 worth $94/each instead. Since June the 7 pieces has gone from $94/each up to today's value of $98.32/each, or $688.24 pre-split. If they invested at $400/share they'd have made +75% profit if they sold today ($288 profit/each). That is before taking into account inflation, tax, and opportunity costs. If they owned their stock pre-2005 then they have experienced two splits and their stock is worth twice as much ($800) in the above estimations.
- ninkendo 12y ago
  My favorite part of the 7:1 split is that the new stock price could be thought of as a percentage value of the highest AAPL ever was before the split, which was ~$700 or so back in Sep 2012.

Apple at $400 will likely be the best value investment of my career.

by IBM 12y ago

Apple at $400 will likely be the best value investment of my career.

wiredfool 12y ago

Apple at $12 (pre split, ca 1996) is the whale that got away of my investment career.

afterburner 12y ago
You're missing hundreds of these kinds of opportunities every year... don't be too sad.
idlewords 12y ago
My (non-tech) friend was sighing about this too, until he thought some more and realized he would have certainly sold it at $20. Which would possibly be an even worse feeling.
- craigyk 12y ago
  When the G5 Powermac came out I gave some serious thought to putting that money toward stock ($3k at ~$15/share). I needed a computer too badly though... I did end up buying at 280, 320, 500 though. Sold it all off just before the last split.
- jfb 12y ago
  My initial tranche of options were at $42 in 2004; I sold the majority in 2009. I alternate regret, rage, and joy in the fact that my extremely good luck in getting the job at Apple allowed me to completely clear my family's debts, and provide capital to start an (ultimately) unsuccessful company. Can't change the past, but oh, there are times.
  - saithier 12y ago
    Well, if it makes you feel any better, I sold 14k shares (adjusted for splits) back in 2002 to buy a used car. Didn't have nearly as much room as that house I coulda bought in SF. :-/
- wiredfool 12y ago
  Yep. IIRC, The delay was due to not getting a brokerage account setup properly, and then having the stock pop from 12 (almost book value, or $4billion) to $17. At which point I decided that the move had already happened.
- enraged_camel 12y ago
  This happened to me with Tesla. I bought a hundred shares at $35, and had a sell order that said, "sell if it drops more than 10%." Two months later, around $80, it fell to $70 or something like that, and mine automatically got sold. Then it jumped to $250. But I was gambling with it (it's the only time in my life I've bought a single company's stock like that), and I think in retrospect the result is quite good. I just can't shake away the "if only..." feeling. :-)
  - wiredfool 12y ago
    Would you guess I did the same thing (procrastinated) with Tesla? Thought hard about it at <20, popped to $30 and I thought the run was over.
  - andykellr 12y ago
    When I got my car in March 2013, I decided it was so amazing that I should buy some stock. I don't really invest in individual stocks so I bought 100 shares at $20. A few weeks later I sold 50 for $35 (an amazing % return). Then I watched it climb to $280, wishing I bought 1,000 instead and hung on. Despite my missed opportunity, I think the car is far better than any other vehicle on the road. There really is no comparison. 8-speed double-clutch automatic with paddle shifters? I prefer no transmission. I could go on and on. Hopefully, someday in the distant future, all of our cars will be non-smoking.
IBM 12y ago
No doubt. It's not that I don't think my other investments won't surpass Apple in appreciation, but it likely will on a risk-adjusted basis. I never invested 75% of my portfolio in anything, but I did for Apple.
sixothree 12y ago
Bought at 21 sold somewhere near 80. Two splits ago. Ugh.
MBCook 12y ago
My dad still remembers (and complains about) when his stockbroker was calling him begging him to buy stock in the nearly bankrupt Apple saying it was a good opportunity. Even a tiny investment would've paid off easily even by the mid 2000s.
- jliptzin 12y ago
  But most people would probably sell when they double or triple their money. You'd have to be insanely prophetic to hold on to the stock this whole time without taking profit.
  - MBCook 12y ago
    Yeah, but it makes a good story. I know I got scared after making quite a bit of money on a small (few hundred dollar) buy in TSLA when it started dropping and got out. I thought I got lucky to make a few times return (I did) and didn't want to push my luck so I sold my few shares. Today TSLA is worth at least 3x what I sold for, but I never would have held though all those ups and downs let alone for two decades. I didn't buy the stock as a real investment, just a little fun in a company I liked.
  - icelancer 12y ago
    Also very dumb to not rebalance. No way would your portfolio justify holding that kind of balance unless your net worth moved at the same rate!
  - jkestner 12y ago
    Prophetic, or patient. I've seen about 60x return - once AAPL popped into a higher stable orbit, I didn't feel it was risky to hold onto it (a drop would still be an overall profit). I was not desperate for the money, so I stopped thinking about it.
- selmnoo 12y ago
  Pretty useless to mourn about such hypotheticals. I had a few bitcoins about 3 years ago that were lost to a failed harddrive (beyond repair -- believe me I tried to get it come back). I think about how much I would have every now and then... but meh, this is an opportunity lost that's just somehow more realizable than probably a handful of other opportunities lost that I can't even identify. So, just keep on going, be vigilant and hope for better for another day.
Anechoic 12y ago
Bought at $16 in 1996: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1291314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1291314 Still have it (well, them) :).
- cpach 12y ago
  Was the reclaim successful? :)
  - Anechoic 12y ago
    Yep :)
    - cpach 12y ago
      Congratulations then :)

idlewords 12y ago

That's defeatist talk, IBM! Snap out of it!

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

Someone1234 12y ago

For anyone confused, the reason Apple is currently only worth around $98/share (when the person above invested $400, and consider it a good investment) is that Apple split their stock in June this year. Before the split it was at $645.57/each, they gave everyone 7 worth $94/each instead. Since June the 7 pieces has gone from $94/each up to today's value of $98.32/each, or $688.24 pre-split. If they invested at $400/share they'd have made +75% profit if they sold today ($288 profit/each). That is before taking into account inflation, tax, and opportunity costs. If they owned their stock pre-2005 then they have experienced two splits and their stock is worth twice as much ($800) in the above estimations.

ninkendo 12y ago
My favorite part of the 7:1 split is that the new stock price could be thought of as a percentage value of the highest AAPL ever was before the split, which was ~$700 or so back in Sep 2012.