6 ms·

It is not going to equalize around $100. It's going to be lower than that as more and more specialists from around the world enter the field. Indeed, these are

by jotm 12y ago

It is not going to equalize around $100. It's going to be lower than that as more and more specialists from around the world enter the field. Indeed, these are the good old days, just like it was for many explorers and entrepreneurs in the past. The software world is also still (and always will be) dependent on the "real world", where fossil fuel is still key and will be for a long, long time. I have to say that you live in a bubble slightly above ~95% of the world, you are indeed very lucky - hopefully for the rest of your life.

gngaman 12y ago
Agreed, hoping for $100-$200/hr for all devs across the world is wishful thinking. When things 'level out', one would expect it to tend to the average, not the outliers.
- twic 12y ago
  It will probably tend to the minimum. But the minimum is constantly rising, as the standard of living in the developing world rises. So it's not unreasonable to think it will level out around the current US rate. Indeed, eventually it will be a uniform $1000/hr, because of inflation. Then $10,000/hr, and so on.
  - cbr 12y ago
    Much easier to have this conversation in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars.
- danielweber 12y ago
  I heard this a decade ago, and maybe this time it will actually happen, but the third-world has yet to suck down the wages of domestic software developers.
reedlaw 12y ago
My big question is how can software--particularly free software--create jobs? Take operating systems. With free alternatives the trend is towards commoditization and declining prices. Same goes for almost any category of desktop software. The only potentially increasing trend is in service, customization, etc.--all geared towards business productivity. Increased productivity may or may not result in net employment gain. In fact, for every programming job there may be manual jobs becoming obsolete. So what can sustain high hourly rates and create new jobs? One part of the answer must be increased specialization, but not everyone can become a specialist.
- FranOntanaya 12y ago
  Free software allows new businesses to enter markets with a lower upfront investment than old ones, hence creating jobs (including jobs related to using that free software.) Now, are they just siphoning profits (and wages) from the older businesses in order to create these jobs? In my opinion, it's more the case that the older business had a high price initially to offset their upfront software costs, and by the time sufficient free software appears they are just riding it without having ever had to distinguish themselves as the 'premium' option, even though it's a fact they aren't even trying to develop to the non-premium market with lower prices. So the new folks come, they have lower prices, and a lot of people that would have never used that service start using it. And unless the older businesses fail to justify their premiums, this should grow the market enough to preserve high wages. Eventually the new business will (should) develop their own in-house solutions beyond the free software, and you'll have the cycle repeat itself.
- ams6110 12y ago
  Same way as any other business that takes a "free" or very cheap raw product and adds value by transforming it for a particular use. Iron ore is "free" you just have to go dig it up. How can steel companies create jobs?
  - reedlaw 12y ago
    With iron there is scarcity and extraction costs. Free software displaces proprietary software which benefits just about everyone except the proprietary software companies.
- BraveNewCurency 12y ago
  > how can software--particularly free software--create jobs? Ok, let's take Linux as a specific example. Take a gander at this: http://lwn.net/Articles/547073/ http://lwn.net/Articles/547073/ So major companies (Oracle, Red Hat, Google, IBM, Intel, Samsung, Fujitsu, Texas Instruments, etc) are contributing to Linux. That creates jobs for all the kernel hackers who probably started before kernel knowledge was a hot commodity. But that effect is minor compared to what people are building WITH Linux: - Red Hat (a 1B company!) wouldn't even exist if it weren't for Linux. They don't "sell Linux", they sell services around Linux. - IBM invested a billion dollars in Linux, and it paid off. They recently decided to invest another billion. Their support for Linux sells Mainframes and their expertise sells services. - Google wouldn't be able to give away their search engine (over 10 million servers) if they had to pay Microsoft for every server. - Companies like TI and Intel can add Linux support for their chips (a tiny expense compared to creating a new CPU), which will enable new devices to be created easily. Some of those new devices (TiVo, Android, Tomato WRT, RPi) will be successful and cause their companies to hire more people. Giving away software doesn't compete with programmers -- it only competes with companies that sell software. Only a tiny fraction (maybe 5%?) of programmers work for companies that sell software directly. The vast majority of programmers write internal line-of-business software, or sell their software indirectly (SaaS). So any Open Source software (Drupal, Apache, etc) is far more likely to help lots of companies save money (therefore have money left over to create jobs). > In fact, for every programming job there may be manual jobs becoming obsolete. That will make programming jobs be more "in demand" compared to regular jobs, therefore command higher salaries. > So what can sustain high hourly rates and create new jobs? You are thinking about it from the wrong end. The question is "can a bit of software be worth millions/billions to a company?" The answer is clearly "yes", since we've seen tiny teams create billions in value over and over. Search around for the writings of patio11 on HN. He will open your eyes. People charging $200/hr are playing a different ball game than people charging $20/hr. They are not 10x better, just better at demonstrating the value of their software to the client. > not everyone can become a specialist. Just the opposite. There are so many new technologies and branches of science coming out that everyone will be a specialist in the future. In fact, programmers are already highly specialized. No matter what technology you pick (COBOL, Java, .NET, Linux, Microsoft, nodejs, Ruby, Python), you will find that some subset of programmers will refuse to work on it because they refuse to learn it.
parasubvert 12y ago
I'm not so sure. Rates from the Indian SIs for senior developers have risen to the $60-80 range lately. Not that people get paid that of course, but they're probably paid around $30-40/hour. China remains less expensive, but I doubt for long. Rates usually rise across a region over time. Sure, I can still find small developer collectives in Bangalore or Hyderabad selling Java coders at $15/hour ... But thats the lower end of junior developers.
AJ007 12y ago
It remains to be seen what will happen to developer employment in the next global economic contraction. The US equity & IPO markets are likely ballooning wages on the high end. Long term certainly there remains a lot of transition from paper to bits and then require really skilled developers to maintain and grow after the transition. There should also be a lot more programmers then. Communication skills & who is employing you matter a lot. A mediocre developer can charge a lot when they are working alone on a project for a non-technical company. That isn't going to work when placed in a position where its obvious your work is crap. Of course inflation means wages will go hell above $100, but what that means is entirely relative. That said, it is nice to be in an area where your wages are not neck and neck with robots. Increasing minimum wages + almost zero % interest rates are converging on unskilled labor very quickly.
ForHackernews 12y ago
"When it gets down to it — talking trade balances here — once we've brain-drained all our technology into other countries, once things have evened out, they're making cars in Bolivia and microwave ovens in Tadzhikistan and selling them here — once our edge in natural resources has been made irrelevant by giant Hong Kong ships and dirigibles that can ship North Dakota all the way to New Zealand for a nickel — once the Invisible Hand has taken away all those historical inequities and smeared them out into a broad global layer of what a Pakistani brickmaker would consider to be prosperity — y'know what? There's only four things we do better than anyone else: music movies microcode (software) high-speed pizza delivery"
- jotm 12y ago
  The UK and Russia would like to have a word with you on the first three. That last one is tough to beat, though :-D
- Eiriksmal 12y ago
  Well, the average 21st-century car already has "contact patches the size of a fat lady's thighs" and we regularly converse through our avatars... Maybe it's one more eerie Stephens pseudo-prediction that will come true.
d23 12y ago
The problem I have with that view is that it takes a lot more than picking up a pick-axe and spending a day or two learning how to look for gold. I don't know about you, but I'd venture a guess that most of the HN crowd (myself included) has been borderline obsessed with computers since a young age. Even if someone spends $10k to take one of those 6 week "boot-camp rails" classes, do you really think they're going to be able to compete at the same level as the rest of us?
- jiggy2011 12y ago
  I assume that the GP is talking about the developing world. As more people in India,China,Eastern Europe,Latin America and Africa also grow up with computers, many of them will be just as talented as US/Western Europe based developers and will be willing to work for a lower hourly rate.
  - jotm 12y ago
    Not only the developing world - simply youngsters who will be entering the workforce soon. There's going to be a lot of them (what with programming being the new goto "future proof" profession) and it will drive down pay rates like never before, in my opinion.

by jotm 12y ago

gngaman 12y ago

Agreed, hoping for $100-$200/hr for all devs across the world is wishful thinking. When things 'level out', one would expect it to tend to the average, not the outliers.

twic 12y ago
It will probably tend to the minimum. But the minimum is constantly rising, as the standard of living in the developing world rises. So it's not unreasonable to think it will level out around the current US rate. Indeed, eventually it will be a uniform $1000/hr, because of inflation. Then $10,000/hr, and so on.
- cbr 12y ago
  Much easier to have this conversation in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars.
danielweber 12y ago
I heard this a decade ago, and maybe this time it will actually happen, but the third-world has yet to suck down the wages of domestic software developers.

reedlaw 12y ago

My big question is how can software--particularly free software--create jobs? Take operating systems. With free alternatives the trend is towards commoditization and declining prices. Same goes for almost any category of desktop software. The only potentially increasing trend is in service, customization, etc.--all geared towards business productivity. Increased productivity may or may not result in net employment gain. In fact, for every programming job there may be manual jobs becoming obsolete. So what can sustain high hourly rates and create new jobs? One part of the answer must be increased specialization, but not everyone can become a specialist.

FranOntanaya 12y ago
Free software allows new businesses to enter markets with a lower upfront investment than old ones, hence creating jobs (including jobs related to using that free software.) Now, are they just siphoning profits (and wages) from the older businesses in order to create these jobs? In my opinion, it's more the case that the older business had a high price initially to offset their upfront software costs, and by the time sufficient free software appears they are just riding it without having ever had to distinguish themselves as the 'premium' option, even though it's a fact they aren't even trying to develop to the non-premium market with lower prices. So the new folks come, they have lower prices, and a lot of people that would have never used that service start using it. And unless the older businesses fail to justify their premiums, this should grow the market enough to preserve high wages. Eventually the new business will (should) develop their own in-house solutions beyond the free software, and you'll have the cycle repeat itself.
ams6110 12y ago
Same way as any other business that takes a "free" or very cheap raw product and adds value by transforming it for a particular use. Iron ore is "free" you just have to go dig it up. How can steel companies create jobs?
- reedlaw 12y ago
  With iron there is scarcity and extraction costs. Free software displaces proprietary software which benefits just about everyone except the proprietary software companies.
BraveNewCurency 12y ago
> how can software--particularly free software--create jobs? Ok, let's take Linux as a specific example. Take a gander at this: http://lwn.net/Articles/547073/ http://lwn.net/Articles/547073/ So major companies (Oracle, Red Hat, Google, IBM, Intel, Samsung, Fujitsu, Texas Instruments, etc) are contributing to Linux. That creates jobs for all the kernel hackers who probably started before kernel knowledge was a hot commodity. But that effect is minor compared to what people are building WITH Linux: - Red Hat (a 1B company!) wouldn't even exist if it weren't for Linux. They don't "sell Linux", they sell services around Linux. - IBM invested a billion dollars in Linux, and it paid off. They recently decided to invest another billion. Their support for Linux sells Mainframes and their expertise sells services. - Google wouldn't be able to give away their search engine (over 10 million servers) if they had to pay Microsoft for every server. - Companies like TI and Intel can add Linux support for their chips (a tiny expense compared to creating a new CPU), which will enable new devices to be created easily. Some of those new devices (TiVo, Android, Tomato WRT, RPi) will be successful and cause their companies to hire more people. Giving away software doesn't compete with programmers -- it only competes with companies that sell software. Only a tiny fraction (maybe 5%?) of programmers work for companies that sell software directly. The vast majority of programmers write internal line-of-business software, or sell their software indirectly (SaaS). So any Open Source software (Drupal, Apache, etc) is far more likely to help lots of companies save money (therefore have money left over to create jobs). > In fact, for every programming job there may be manual jobs becoming obsolete. That will make programming jobs be more "in demand" compared to regular jobs, therefore command higher salaries. > So what can sustain high hourly rates and create new jobs? You are thinking about it from the wrong end. The question is "can a bit of software be worth millions/billions to a company?" The answer is clearly "yes", since we've seen tiny teams create billions in value over and over. Search around for the writings of patio11 on HN. He will open your eyes. People charging $200/hr are playing a different ball game than people charging $20/hr. They are not 10x better, just better at demonstrating the value of their software to the client. > not everyone can become a specialist. Just the opposite. There are so many new technologies and branches of science coming out that everyone will be a specialist in the future. In fact, programmers are already highly specialized. No matter what technology you pick (COBOL, Java, .NET, Linux, Microsoft, nodejs, Ruby, Python), you will find that some subset of programmers will refuse to work on it because they refuse to learn it.

parasubvert 12y ago

I'm not so sure. Rates from the Indian SIs for senior developers have risen to the $60-80 range lately. Not that people get paid that of course, but they're probably paid around $30-40/hour. China remains less expensive, but I doubt for long. Rates usually rise across a region over time. Sure, I can still find small developer collectives in Bangalore or Hyderabad selling Java coders at $15/hour ... But thats the lower end of junior developers.

AJ007 12y ago

It remains to be seen what will happen to developer employment in the next global economic contraction. The US equity & IPO markets are likely ballooning wages on the high end. Long term certainly there remains a lot of transition from paper to bits and then require really skilled developers to maintain and grow after the transition. There should also be a lot more programmers then. Communication skills & who is employing you matter a lot. A mediocre developer can charge a lot when they are working alone on a project for a non-technical company. That isn't going to work when placed in a position where its obvious your work is crap. Of course inflation means wages will go hell above $100, but what that means is entirely relative. That said, it is nice to be in an area where your wages are not neck and neck with robots. Increasing minimum wages + almost zero % interest rates are converging on unskilled labor very quickly.

ForHackernews 12y ago

"When it gets down to it — talking trade balances here — once we've brain-drained all our technology into other countries, once things have evened out, they're making cars in Bolivia and microwave ovens in Tadzhikistan and selling them here — once our edge in natural resources has been made irrelevant by giant Hong Kong ships and dirigibles that can ship North Dakota all the way to New Zealand for a nickel — once the Invisible Hand has taken away all those historical inequities and smeared them out into a broad global layer of what a Pakistani brickmaker would consider to be prosperity — y'know what? There's only four things we do better than anyone else: music movies microcode (software) high-speed pizza delivery"

jotm 12y ago
The UK and Russia would like to have a word with you on the first three. That last one is tough to beat, though :-D
Eiriksmal 12y ago
Well, the average 21st-century car already has "contact patches the size of a fat lady's thighs" and we regularly converse through our avatars... Maybe it's one more eerie Stephens pseudo-prediction that will come true.

d23 12y ago

The problem I have with that view is that it takes a lot more than picking up a pick-axe and spending a day or two learning how to look for gold. I don't know about you, but I'd venture a guess that most of the HN crowd (myself included) has been borderline obsessed with computers since a young age. Even if someone spends $10k to take one of those 6 week "boot-camp rails" classes, do you really think they're going to be able to compete at the same level as the rest of us?

jiggy2011 12y ago
I assume that the GP is talking about the developing world. As more people in India,China,Eastern Europe,Latin America and Africa also grow up with computers, many of them will be just as talented as US/Western Europe based developers and will be willing to work for a lower hourly rate.
- jotm 12y ago
  Not only the developing world - simply youngsters who will be entering the workforce soon. There's going to be a lot of them (what with programming being the new goto "future proof" profession) and it will drive down pay rates like never before, in my opinion.