6 ms·

Wow, that article is a total bummer. But it seems to me he's cherry picking all of the things that haven't worked out so well, or progressed as fast as we'd lik

by dicroce 12y ago

Wow, that article is a total bummer. But it seems to me he's cherry picking all of the things that haven't worked out so well, or progressed as fast as we'd like and pronouncing us a failure.... What about all the things that we didn't predict, that we DO have? We are remarkably close to self driving cars... that is awesome... Some recent breakthroughs in AI I suspect will be rippling through our civilization for quite a while to come...

api 12y ago
Everything you cite is in or closely related to the IT sector, which is the exception. Every other sector has gone cold or even backwards since ~1970.
- k__ 12y ago
  But I got the feeling that the other sectors need IT for advancement. IT just has to get on a level that it's full power can be used by everyone.
- pillowpants2 12y ago
  Self-Driving would classify under transportation.
- rpedela 12y ago
  There has been plenty of innovation. When mature, electric vehicles mean the cost of fuel is essentially zero. Whenever there has a been a massive drop in energy costs, there has also been an economic boom. Electric vehicles also mean no more air pollution from vehicles which means a healthier population and fewer medical bills. Then you have the whole AI thing which promises to drastically reduce, if not eliminate, accidents as well as reduce traffic congestion. SpaceX is getting pretty damn close to a reusable rocket which will drastically reduce the cost of entering orbit. If that happens, then it is likely that space will become a viable market for private enterprise: tourism, mining, etc. There is a lot of work going on in energy including some designs for fusion that should be commercially viable. I don't know what is going to happen with energy, but there are way too many people working on it for nothing significant to happen in the near future. In healthcare, it seems like every few days I am reading about a person being cured of blindness with stem cells, growing or 3D printing an organ in a lab, or some new insight into how the body ages. I could keep going, but I am tired of typing letters. The point is that "Every other sector has gone cold or even backwards since ~1970" is a false statement.
  - dragonwriter 12y ago
    > When mature, electric vehicles mean the cost of fuel is essentially zero. Whenever there has a been a massive drop in energy costs, there has also been an economic boom. But the first sentence is wrong -- it only means the cost of energy for a vehicle is equal to the cost of the same energy on the electric grid, plus the cost of wear on the onboard storage system (battery, etc.) Unless your definition of "mature" for electric vehicles includes existing in a world where energy costs on the electric grid are essentially zero (which is a whole lot bigger of an advance than electric vehicles, and applies a lot more broadly!), mature electric vehicle technology doesn't mean that the energy cost for vehicles in essentially zero, either.
    - dllthomas 12y ago
      I agree with your point, but I think an interesting aspect is that a shift toward pushing our transportation energy through the grid might (maybe) lead to some additional economies of scale that could bring down energy costs more broadly. That said, there might instead be diseconomies of scale that dominate - so certainly not a sure thing.
      - dragonwriter 12y ago
        > I think an interesting aspect is that a shift toward pushing our transportation energy through the grid might (maybe) lead to some additional economies of scale that could bring down energy costs more broadly. I do think that both the economies of scale that this involves and the fact that it makes the shift to alternative (whether "cheaper" or "cleaner" or both) fuels one that involves changing grid inputs without requiring changes to vehicles, fueling infrastructure (once you have the electric charging infrastructure in place), etc., are big gains. When I was dismissing the idea that electric vehicles had a near-zero energy cost, I wasn't intending to dismiss the idea that electric vehicles offer some real opportunities for improvement.
    - seanflyon 12y ago
      "essentially zero" is an exaggeration, but electric cars are dramatically cheaper to fuel. They use much less energy and the energy they use is in a much cheaper form (electricity vs gasoline).
- baddox 12y ago
  Do you consider self-driving cars to be in or closely related to the IT sector?
  - scottlocklin 12y ago
    I consider "self driving cars" as not existing the corporeal world.
    - baddox 12y ago
      But that's the only thing cited in dicroce's comment, and api said "Everything you cite is in or closely related to the IT sector, which is the exception." Also, self driving cars certainly exist in the corporeal world.
- notahacker 12y ago
  >Everything you cite is in or closely related to the IT sector, which is the exception. Every other sector has gone cold or even backwards since ~1970 Sure, the IT sector has enabled pretty much everything since the 1970s, including most of the world having a telephone in their pocket, and developments like with massive transformative potential like encoding human genomes. But that's like writing off the Industrial Revolution as being a time entirely unremarkable but for developments "in or closely related to the mechanical engineering sector"
- nostrademons 12y ago
  That's only because you're unaware of innovations that have happened in other sectors and their consequences. In oil, there've been huge breakthroughs in fracking, horizontal drilling, and oil shale and tar sands mining. As a result, U.S. oil imports have fallen by a third since 2008 [1], and domestic crude oil production is up nearly 50%. We've pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan because the Middle East is no longer strategically important to us, saving thousands of lives in those wars. Oil is expensive now, but the price is relatively stable, meaning that we can plan ahead for the future (like buying a fuel-efficient car instead of an SUV) instead of being at the whims of global politics. In finance, it's now possible to get funding for an idea without being a grizzled 30-year veteran of an industry. If you have a creative project or even something plain-old crazy, you can go on Kickstarter and crowd-fund it with pre-orders. Microfinance is commonplace enough that it's driving down returns, and it's lifted millions of people out of poverty in the developing world. You can accept credit card payments with just an iPad. In education, you can take courses online with world-leading professors at elite universities, all without leaving your living room or paying tuition. In travel, you can take virtual tours of places you might want to visit on your computer, map out on itinerary, read reviews, and book flights, hotel rooms, and activities within minutes, again all without leaving your living room. I'm just old enough to remember travel agents. Remember when you had to drive to meet one, have only a vague idea of what country you wanted to see, take the options they give you because you don't know what else is available, and pay through the nose for all of it? The first Google-assisted trip I took, back in 2004, was a revelation, and that was before Maps or StreetView or smartphones or Kayak or Yelp or the universal ability to book things online. Most of the time when I hear folks say "Things have gotten worse than they used to be", they don't mean "things have gotten worse", they mean "Argh, things have changed and I don't know how anything works anymore and what's my place in the world and how will I support myself and everybody else seems to be doing better than me!" Much of which is an illusion, because everybody else is equally insecure about their prospects and place in the world. But the opportunities are out there, and objectively speaking, we are so much, much better off than we were when I was a kid in the 80s. [1] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_a.htm http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_... [2] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm

by dicroce 12y ago

api 12y ago

Everything you cite is in or closely related to the IT sector, which is the exception. Every other sector has gone cold or even backwards since ~1970.

k__ 12y ago
But I got the feeling that the other sectors need IT for advancement. IT just has to get on a level that it's full power can be used by everyone.
pillowpants2 12y ago
Self-Driving would classify under transportation.
rpedela 12y ago
There has been plenty of innovation. When mature, electric vehicles mean the cost of fuel is essentially zero. Whenever there has a been a massive drop in energy costs, there has also been an economic boom. Electric vehicles also mean no more air pollution from vehicles which means a healthier population and fewer medical bills. Then you have the whole AI thing which promises to drastically reduce, if not eliminate, accidents as well as reduce traffic congestion. SpaceX is getting pretty damn close to a reusable rocket which will drastically reduce the cost of entering orbit. If that happens, then it is likely that space will become a viable market for private enterprise: tourism, mining, etc. There is a lot of work going on in energy including some designs for fusion that should be commercially viable. I don't know what is going to happen with energy, but there are way too many people working on it for nothing significant to happen in the near future. In healthcare, it seems like every few days I am reading about a person being cured of blindness with stem cells, growing or 3D printing an organ in a lab, or some new insight into how the body ages. I could keep going, but I am tired of typing letters. The point is that "Every other sector has gone cold or even backwards since ~1970" is a false statement.
- dragonwriter 12y ago
  > When mature, electric vehicles mean the cost of fuel is essentially zero. Whenever there has a been a massive drop in energy costs, there has also been an economic boom. But the first sentence is wrong -- it only means the cost of energy for a vehicle is equal to the cost of the same energy on the electric grid, plus the cost of wear on the onboard storage system (battery, etc.) Unless your definition of "mature" for electric vehicles includes existing in a world where energy costs on the electric grid are essentially zero (which is a whole lot bigger of an advance than electric vehicles, and applies a lot more broadly!), mature electric vehicle technology doesn't mean that the energy cost for vehicles in essentially zero, either.
  - dllthomas 12y ago
    I agree with your point, but I think an interesting aspect is that a shift toward pushing our transportation energy through the grid might (maybe) lead to some additional economies of scale that could bring down energy costs more broadly. That said, there might instead be diseconomies of scale that dominate - so certainly not a sure thing.
    - dragonwriter 12y ago
      > I think an interesting aspect is that a shift toward pushing our transportation energy through the grid might (maybe) lead to some additional economies of scale that could bring down energy costs more broadly. I do think that both the economies of scale that this involves and the fact that it makes the shift to alternative (whether "cheaper" or "cleaner" or both) fuels one that involves changing grid inputs without requiring changes to vehicles, fueling infrastructure (once you have the electric charging infrastructure in place), etc., are big gains. When I was dismissing the idea that electric vehicles had a near-zero energy cost, I wasn't intending to dismiss the idea that electric vehicles offer some real opportunities for improvement.
  - seanflyon 12y ago
    "essentially zero" is an exaggeration, but electric cars are dramatically cheaper to fuel. They use much less energy and the energy they use is in a much cheaper form (electricity vs gasoline).
baddox 12y ago
Do you consider self-driving cars to be in or closely related to the IT sector?
- scottlocklin 12y ago
  I consider "self driving cars" as not existing the corporeal world.
  - baddox 12y ago
    But that's the only thing cited in dicroce's comment, and api said "Everything you cite is in or closely related to the IT sector, which is the exception." Also, self driving cars certainly exist in the corporeal world.
notahacker 12y ago
>Everything you cite is in or closely related to the IT sector, which is the exception. Every other sector has gone cold or even backwards since ~1970 Sure, the IT sector has enabled pretty much everything since the 1970s, including most of the world having a telephone in their pocket, and developments like with massive transformative potential like encoding human genomes. But that's like writing off the Industrial Revolution as being a time entirely unremarkable but for developments "in or closely related to the mechanical engineering sector"
nostrademons 12y ago
That's only because you're unaware of innovations that have happened in other sectors and their consequences. In oil, there've been huge breakthroughs in fracking, horizontal drilling, and oil shale and tar sands mining. As a result, U.S. oil imports have fallen by a third since 2008 [1], and domestic crude oil production is up nearly 50%. We've pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan because the Middle East is no longer strategically important to us, saving thousands of lives in those wars. Oil is expensive now, but the price is relatively stable, meaning that we can plan ahead for the future (like buying a fuel-efficient car instead of an SUV) instead of being at the whims of global politics. In finance, it's now possible to get funding for an idea without being a grizzled 30-year veteran of an industry. If you have a creative project or even something plain-old crazy, you can go on Kickstarter and crowd-fund it with pre-orders. Microfinance is commonplace enough that it's driving down returns, and it's lifted millions of people out of poverty in the developing world. You can accept credit card payments with just an iPad. In education, you can take courses online with world-leading professors at elite universities, all without leaving your living room or paying tuition. In travel, you can take virtual tours of places you might want to visit on your computer, map out on itinerary, read reviews, and book flights, hotel rooms, and activities within minutes, again all without leaving your living room. I'm just old enough to remember travel agents. Remember when you had to drive to meet one, have only a vague idea of what country you wanted to see, take the options they give you because you don't know what else is available, and pay through the nose for all of it? The first Google-assisted trip I took, back in 2004, was a revelation, and that was before Maps or StreetView or smartphones or Kayak or Yelp or the universal ability to book things online. Most of the time when I hear folks say "Things have gotten worse than they used to be", they don't mean "things have gotten worse", they mean "Argh, things have changed and I don't know how anything works anymore and what's my place in the world and how will I support myself and everybody else seems to be doing better than me!" Much of which is an illusion, because everybody else is equally insecure about their prospects and place in the world. But the opportunities are out there, and objectively speaking, we are so much, much better off than we were when I was a kid in the 80s. [1] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_a.htm http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_... [2] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm