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Scottish independence referendum poll tracker

31 points by Sami_Lehtinen 12y ago

michel-slm 12y ago
Kudos to the BBC and the UK as a whole, there are not many countries in which the state broadcasting unit seems to be covering a move to secede with reasonable impartiality. cf. the shock to the Indonesian political elite when East Timor voted overwhelmingly to secede - there is a downside to a press that is too docile
- amouat 12y ago
  They've actually had quite a lot of criticism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_independence_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_...
- klmr 12y ago
  The BBC is technically independent [1], not a “state broadcast” – that’s the whole point of being funded via TV license [2]. … Of course, in reality people accuse the BBC of all kinds of biases, amongst them being pro-government (I find myself in that camp, but there are few hard numbers [3]). It’s also been accused of bias by both sides of the referendum debate [4]. [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC#Governance_and_Corporate_Structure http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC#Governance_and_Corporate_St... [2]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licence#History http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licence#History [3]: http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/08/hard-evidence-how-biased-bbc http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/08/hard-evidence-... [4]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_independence_referendum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_i...
  - atmosx 12y ago
    BBC is (always were) pro government. That said, IMHO is the state-of-art TV broadcast network.
    - asuffield 12y ago
      "Pro government" is maybe a little strong. The BBC is funded by the government under an "arms length" arrangement with license fees; it is (understandably) nervous about doing anything that annoys the government enough to make it reconsider this status. That doesn't mean that the BBC actively endorses the government of the time, but rather that it tends to prefer not to rock the boat too hard. It's never been - and never will be - a hotbed of edgy, controversial content. You could describe its objective as "quality content that isn't going to be hated by too many people".
    - gadders 12y ago
      The BBC is not pro-government currently, and wasn't pro-Labour after the Iraq War. I think the best way to describe the BBC's bias is "pro-Guardian" (a left-leaning newspaper).
  - blueskin_ 12y ago
    The BBC is only neutral where it serves their best interests. For example, good luck finding any coverage of the opposition to the TV tax that funds them. Also worth noting that you can be politically 'neutral' while still having unbalanced levels of coverage or using weasel words. While the BBC certainly does better than most organisations that claim to be neutral, there is still a tendency to oppose the incumbent government as well as a slight lean to the left politically.
    - tobylane 12y ago
      On the other hand good luck finding something against the TV licence fee, or against most things the BBC do, that isn't written by a Murdoch paper. I agree on the second paragraph, it's a shame that each individual doesn't shine through that where relevant.
tchai_ 12y ago
The fact is that no non-Scottish UK citizen really gives a toss. It's Scotland vs Westminster and the rest of the UK couldn't give a fuck what they do.
- vixin 12y ago
  Not true. They will once they understand the significance of the Westminster parliament losing 52 Scottish Labour MPs which would leave the rest of the UK with a strong Tory majority. If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign.
  - gadders 12y ago
    "most likely to be Labour" - er, what? Ed Milliband? I would say it's 50/50 as to who the next PM would be.
  - nicholassmith 12y ago
    "If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign." I doubt it, if Scotland votes yes it'd probably cripple Cameron's career, not whoever becomes PM after the vote.
    - chrisdevereux 12y ago
      I sometimes wonder if this was exactly Osbourne's plan
      - nicholassmith 12y ago
        Part of me wants to say that gives Osbourne a lot more credit than he deserves, part of me thinks he's probably shrewd enough to have a go at it with some level of success.
      - crapshoot101 12y ago
        You think Boris wouldn't be the heir apparent in that case, not Osbourne?
blueskin_ 12y ago
It's worth noting that YouGov polls have been the most cited, especially recently, while there has been a coordinated effort by the pro-independence campaign to start registering their people on there in bulk to inflate their numbers in the polls (YouGov allows anyone to register to participate).
- cm-t 12y ago
  I don't know. But note that you can change the source from the selectbox below (and others sources show that the "Yes" is not yet #1 (but might be (or not), if you count later the "Don't know" voices).
  - cowls 12y ago
    YouGov is the most recent poll though, the others are 1-6 weeks older. So it is hard to compare
  - fra 12y ago
    Error: ')' expected.
- allegory 12y ago
  YouGov allows everyone to register but selects panels based on approximate population distribution rather than surveying everyone. Disclaimer: used to work in that sector.
  - michaelt 12y ago
    Assuming support for Scottish independence is randomly distributed among the Scottish population, what criteria would you use to select a representative panel?
    - allegory 12y ago
      I'm not sure what they would use myself but based on the prequel questions they ask people plus some heuristics they can determine roughly were you sit within the populous on a number of aspects between age, class, income, location and political inclination etc. If a poll is biased towards political inclination they can exclude that from the selection criteria to avoid result bias.
gabemart 12y ago
Odds at online bookmakers and betting exchanges still rate a "No" vote as around twice a likely as a "Yes" vote. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottis...
- jebus989 12y ago
  As well they should. This one poll gives the appearance of a trend towards Yes and a dramatic close finish, but Yes have always been behind by a fairly consistent margin [0]. Just so happens the odd poll (~2/50 now) finds a Yes majority by crook or by hook (e.g. SNP commission a poll) and it makes a nice news piece. I did a quick analysis of that polling data should anyone be interested [1]. [0] http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendu... [1] http://blm.io/blog/scottish-independence-polls/ http://blm.io/blog/scottish-independence-polls/
  - klmr 12y ago
    Phenomenal work, well done. I was slightly disappointed that the (beautiful) blog post was not authored in R Markdown. ;-) One comment, your analysis only takes into account data up to July of this year. It is entirely plausible that the recent debates could have affected the polls dramatically (there’s precedence for this, prime example being the Kennedy–Nixon debate), something that the BBC data is consistent with.
zoner 12y ago
As a foreigner, living in Scotland the whole debate seems left wing-ish to me. SNP shows they are nationalistic, but wants to be an independent republic, not having the Queen (or restore their own historical realm). There are also a lot of very good things I see, but there's no sign of the same nationalistic spirit as I can see in Poland, Croatia or Hungary. Beautiful landscape anyway, they could be rich and smart when independent. In fact, after Russia, Scotland will be the most manliest country in the world with more culture and gentleman than Russia :) I will be also very sad an other Kingdom will be smaller in case they became independent. Despite I have the right to vote, I can't say aye or naw yet, but silently observing the thing to learn from it. Hope Transylmania one day will have the same opportunity.
- frozenport 12y ago
  Pretty sure the Isle-of-Man is the manliest country.
atmosx 12y ago
That's probably the most interesting thing that will happen in 2014, especially if Scotland votes 'YES' (which I believe will do, I don't trust pools anyway). Generally speaking, after 2008 and the policies the EU choose to endorse, Europe is heading towards right-wing, nationalistic governments, who speak against a unified EU. That's because where the EU was seen as a good thing before, it was used by liberals to kill effectively every social protection Europe had to offer[1]. That doesn't apply to Scotland as much as other countries, but I believe it does affect the vote indirectly. [1] From Spain to Turkey, every country that had to do a non-popular, usually anti-social reform, used Brussels as the main reason.
crapshoot101 12y ago
Would be shocked if this actually happens. Most Scottish business will move down south (they've said as much loudly), they will not be able to use the pound, and because of the EU's "any member can veto policy", I think EU membership will be harder, not easier for Scotland to get - Spain, for one (with Catalonia or the Basque region), is not going to want this precedent set. Still, will be interesting to watch. Money is still on "No", but stranger things have happened.
- crapshoot101 12y ago
  By the way, Tyler Cowen has an interesting link on this (Citing the FT): note that financial services are the biggest part of Scotland's GDP now, and getting away from the pound would affect that: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/09/does-sterlingsation-make-sense-for-scotland-or-would-a-separate-currency-be-better.html http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/09/doe...
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
- arethuza 12y ago
  I think it's perhaps more accurate to say that business leaders in Scotland are split just the same way that the rest of the population is: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-28960729 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-2896... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28944255 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28944255 Also worth noting that the SNP wants to lower corporation tax rates to attract large companies here.
  - Alphasite_ 12y ago
    The UK already has very low corporate taxes, so Putting it even lower could be interesting.
    - justincormack 12y ago

31 points by Sami_Lehtinen 12y ago

Kudos to the BBC and the UK as a whole, there are not many countries in which the state broadcasting unit seems to be covering a move to secede with reasonable impartiality. cf. the shock to the Indonesian political elite when East Timor voted overwhelmingly to secede - there is a downside to a press that is too docile

amouat 12y ago
They've actually had quite a lot of criticism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_independence_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_...
klmr 12y ago
The BBC is technically independent [1], not a “state broadcast” – that’s the whole point of being funded via TV license [2]. … Of course, in reality people accuse the BBC of all kinds of biases, amongst them being pro-government (I find myself in that camp, but there are few hard numbers [3]). It’s also been accused of bias by both sides of the referendum debate [4]. [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC#Governance_and_Corporate_Structure http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC#Governance_and_Corporate_St... [2]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licence#History http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licence#History [3]: http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/08/hard-evidence-how-biased-bbc http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2013/08/hard-evidence-... [4]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_independence_referendum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_BBC#Scottish_i...
- atmosx 12y ago
  BBC is (always were) pro government. That said, IMHO is the state-of-art TV broadcast network.
  - asuffield 12y ago
    "Pro government" is maybe a little strong. The BBC is funded by the government under an "arms length" arrangement with license fees; it is (understandably) nervous about doing anything that annoys the government enough to make it reconsider this status. That doesn't mean that the BBC actively endorses the government of the time, but rather that it tends to prefer not to rock the boat too hard. It's never been - and never will be - a hotbed of edgy, controversial content. You could describe its objective as "quality content that isn't going to be hated by too many people".
  - gadders 12y ago
    The BBC is not pro-government currently, and wasn't pro-Labour after the Iraq War. I think the best way to describe the BBC's bias is "pro-Guardian" (a left-leaning newspaper).
- blueskin_ 12y ago
  The BBC is only neutral where it serves their best interests. For example, good luck finding any coverage of the opposition to the TV tax that funds them. Also worth noting that you can be politically 'neutral' while still having unbalanced levels of coverage or using weasel words. While the BBC certainly does better than most organisations that claim to be neutral, there is still a tendency to oppose the incumbent government as well as a slight lean to the left politically.
  - tobylane 12y ago
    On the other hand good luck finding something against the TV licence fee, or against most things the BBC do, that isn't written by a Murdoch paper. I agree on the second paragraph, it's a shame that each individual doesn't shine through that where relevant.

tchai_ 12y ago

The fact is that no non-Scottish UK citizen really gives a toss. It's Scotland vs Westminster and the rest of the UK couldn't give a fuck what they do.

vixin 12y ago
Not true. They will once they understand the significance of the Westminster parliament losing 52 Scottish Labour MPs which would leave the rest of the UK with a strong Tory majority. If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign.
- gadders 12y ago
  "most likely to be Labour" - er, what? Ed Milliband? I would say it's 50/50 as to who the next PM would be.
- nicholassmith 12y ago
  "If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign." I doubt it, if Scotland votes yes it'd probably cripple Cameron's career, not whoever becomes PM after the vote.
  - chrisdevereux 12y ago
    I sometimes wonder if this was exactly Osbourne's plan
    - nicholassmith 12y ago
      Part of me wants to say that gives Osbourne a lot more credit than he deserves, part of me thinks he's probably shrewd enough to have a go at it with some level of success.
    - crapshoot101 12y ago
      You think Boris wouldn't be the heir apparent in that case, not Osbourne?

blueskin_ 12y ago

It's worth noting that YouGov polls have been the most cited, especially recently, while there has been a coordinated effort by the pro-independence campaign to start registering their people on there in bulk to inflate their numbers in the polls (YouGov allows anyone to register to participate).

cm-t 12y ago
I don't know. But note that you can change the source from the selectbox below (and others sources show that the "Yes" is not yet #1 (but might be (or not), if you count later the "Don't know" voices).
- cowls 12y ago
  YouGov is the most recent poll though, the others are 1-6 weeks older. So it is hard to compare
- fra 12y ago
  Error: ')' expected.
allegory 12y ago
YouGov allows everyone to register but selects panels based on approximate population distribution rather than surveying everyone. Disclaimer: used to work in that sector.
- michaelt 12y ago
  Assuming support for Scottish independence is randomly distributed among the Scottish population, what criteria would you use to select a representative panel?
  - allegory 12y ago
    I'm not sure what they would use myself but based on the prequel questions they ask people plus some heuristics they can determine roughly were you sit within the populous on a number of aspects between age, class, income, location and political inclination etc. If a poll is biased towards political inclination they can exclude that from the selection criteria to avoid result bias.

gabemart 12y ago

Odds at online bookmakers and betting exchanges still rate a "No" vote as around twice a likely as a "Yes" vote. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottis...

jebus989 12y ago
As well they should. This one poll gives the appearance of a trend towards Yes and a dramatic close finish, but Yes have always been behind by a fairly consistent margin [0]. Just so happens the odd poll (~2/50 now) finds a Yes majority by crook or by hook (e.g. SNP commission a poll) and it makes a nice news piece. I did a quick analysis of that polling data should anyone be interested [1]. [0] http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendu... [1] http://blm.io/blog/scottish-independence-polls/ http://blm.io/blog/scottish-independence-polls/
- klmr 12y ago
  Phenomenal work, well done. I was slightly disappointed that the (beautiful) blog post was not authored in R Markdown. ;-) One comment, your analysis only takes into account data up to July of this year. It is entirely plausible that the recent debates could have affected the polls dramatically (there’s precedence for this, prime example being the Kennedy–Nixon debate), something that the BBC data is consistent with.

zoner 12y ago

As a foreigner, living in Scotland the whole debate seems left wing-ish to me. SNP shows they are nationalistic, but wants to be an independent republic, not having the Queen (or restore their own historical realm). There are also a lot of very good things I see, but there's no sign of the same nationalistic spirit as I can see in Poland, Croatia or Hungary. Beautiful landscape anyway, they could be rich and smart when independent. In fact, after Russia, Scotland will be the most manliest country in the world with more culture and gentleman than Russia :) I will be also very sad an other Kingdom will be smaller in case they became independent. Despite I have the right to vote, I can't say aye or naw yet, but silently observing the thing to learn from it. Hope Transylmania one day will have the same opportunity.

frozenport 12y ago
Pretty sure the Isle-of-Man is the manliest country.

atmosx 12y ago

That's probably the most interesting thing that will happen in 2014, especially if Scotland votes 'YES' (which I believe will do, I don't trust pools anyway). Generally speaking, after 2008 and the policies the EU choose to endorse, Europe is heading towards right-wing, nationalistic governments, who speak against a unified EU. That's because where the EU was seen as a good thing before, it was used by liberals to kill effectively every social protection Europe had to offer[1]. That doesn't apply to Scotland as much as other countries, but I believe it does affect the vote indirectly. [1] From Spain to Turkey, every country that had to do a non-popular, usually anti-social reform, used Brussels as the main reason.

crapshoot101 12y ago

Would be shocked if this actually happens. Most Scottish business will move down south (they've said as much loudly), they will not be able to use the pound, and because of the EU's "any member can veto policy", I think EU membership will be harder, not easier for Scotland to get - Spain, for one (with Catalonia or the Basque region), is not going to want this precedent set. Still, will be interesting to watch. Money is still on "No", but stranger things have happened.

crapshoot101 12y ago
By the way, Tyler Cowen has an interesting link on this (Citing the FT): note that financial services are the biggest part of Scotland's GDP now, and getting away from the pound would affect that: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/09/does-sterlingsation-make-sense-for-scotland-or-would-a-separate-currency-be-better.html http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/09/doe...
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
arethuza 12y ago
I think it's perhaps more accurate to say that business leaders in Scotland are split just the same way that the rest of the population is: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-28960729 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-2896... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28944255 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28944255 Also worth noting that the SNP wants to lower corporation tax rates to attract large companies here.
- Alphasite_ 12y ago
  The UK already has very low corporate taxes, so Putting it even lower could be interesting.
  - justincormack 12y ago