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> At present consumption rates, know reserves will last less than 50 years But those reserves are growing not shrinking over time. In the 1950s there was only

> At present consumption rates, know reserves will last less than 50 years But those reserves are growing not shrinking over time. In the 1950s there was only 10 years of known reserves. We need to start worrying when the known reserves start getting smaller, rather than growing over time. http://www.scdigest.com/images/misc/World-Oil-Reserves_web_000.jpg http://www.scdigest.com/images/misc/World-Oil-Reserves_web_0... http://www.cheaperpetrolparty.com/Images/World%20Crude%20Oil%20Reserves%201980-2007.jpg http://www.cheaperpetrolparty.com/Images/World%20Crude%20Oil... http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/opec_reserve_growth.gif http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/opec_reserve_growth.gif > Markets are slow to transfer information to economic actors when conditions change drastically Hardly. Prices rise and fall in minutes when there's new information. Also if the 20th century has taught us anything it's that we need to keep politicans as far away from resource development as possible,

crpatino 17y ago
lupin, I think you are taking a really cheap shot at me. I am not arguing that we are about to run out of oil in the near future. I dont think oil will "run dry" in my lifetime, and quite possible not in my kids lifetime as well. So, let me restate my point. Rebuild an artificial oil reserve of the size of our original natural oil reserve (at the late 19th century levels... regardless of the reserve was known or not), is not an achievable goal for the 21st century. We dont have the time to do the R&D and we dont have the resources to implement the project in the scale needed. Can we do the stuff, I think yes; but un a much lower scale and only for strategic applications that cannot use any other form of less concentrated energy. The rest of society will have to due without or find an alternative solution. Now... >Hardly. Prices rise and fall in minutes when there's new information. That is precisely the problem! Variation within minutes does not produce a consistent strategy, it produces noise. We are guiding the future of ourselves and our children on sheer noise. Not an improvement over the shaman who reads the burned scraps of the dinner. In peak oil circles, it is a widely held belief that 2005 is the year of Peak Oil (since global oil production has plateaued over the last 5 years or so). I do not believe it is the Peak Oil. I believe we are observing a peak oil, resulting from underinvestment from the Big Oil industry in the 90's, when it was so cheap to bother and they decided to "focus on developing existing reserves". Fortunately, you cannot just declare that you are now exploiting new reserves. It takes both material and human infrastructure that takes time to implement. Thus, demand exceeds supply and you see a barrel rise up to almost $150 USD. This triggers a catalyst to structural problems in finance sector and you end up in recession... unable to command the resources needed to upgrade your infrastructure.
- lupin_sansei 17y ago
  No offence meant! So here's the interesting thing, our known reserves today are bigger than they were in the 19th century and paradoxically are getting bigger every year even though we are using more and more oil. Until this situation ends there's no need to waste resources developing an alternative energy source (assuming the sole reason for doing so is to mitigate running out of oil). We are essentially running into oil rather than out of it. Higher oil prices automatically command resources and people to direct their attention to oil production. This is why we never run out of any resource, as soon as the price rises people move into the field (in order to get higher wages/returns) to solve the problem.

crpatino 17y ago

lupin, I think you are taking a really cheap shot at me. I am not arguing that we are about to run out of oil in the near future. I dont think oil will "run dry" in my lifetime, and quite possible not in my kids lifetime as well. So, let me restate my point. Rebuild an artificial oil reserve of the size of our original natural oil reserve (at the late 19th century levels... regardless of the reserve was known or not), is not an achievable goal for the 21st century. We dont have the time to do the R&D and we dont have the resources to implement the project in the scale needed. Can we do the stuff, I think yes; but un a much lower scale and only for strategic applications that cannot use any other form of less concentrated energy. The rest of society will have to due without or find an alternative solution. Now... >Hardly. Prices rise and fall in minutes when there's new information. That is precisely the problem! Variation within minutes does not produce a consistent strategy, it produces noise. We are guiding the future of ourselves and our children on sheer noise. Not an improvement over the shaman who reads the burned scraps of the dinner. In peak oil circles, it is a widely held belief that 2005 is the year of Peak Oil (since global oil production has plateaued over the last 5 years or so). I do not believe it is the Peak Oil. I believe we are observing a peak oil, resulting from underinvestment from the Big Oil industry in the 90's, when it was so cheap to bother and they decided to "focus on developing existing reserves". Fortunately, you cannot just declare that you are now exploiting new reserves. It takes both material and human infrastructure that takes time to implement. Thus, demand exceeds supply and you see a barrel rise up to almost $150 USD. This triggers a catalyst to structural problems in finance sector and you end up in recession... unable to command the resources needed to upgrade your infrastructure.

lupin_sansei 17y ago
No offence meant! So here's the interesting thing, our known reserves today are bigger than they were in the 19th century and paradoxically are getting bigger every year even though we are using more and more oil. Until this situation ends there's no need to waste resources developing an alternative energy source (assuming the sole reason for doing so is to mitigate running out of oil). We are essentially running into oil rather than out of it. Higher oil prices automatically command resources and people to direct their attention to oil production. This is why we never run out of any resource, as soon as the price rises people move into the field (in order to get higher wages/returns) to solve the problem.