Another strong factor is the PRC's rapidly aging demographics thanks to the CCP's One Child Policy. They're looking at a demographic collapse not entirely unli

Another strong factor is the PRC's rapidly aging demographics thanks to the CCP's One Child Policy. They're looking at a demographic collapse not entirely unlike Japan's ... except it's happening before they get really wealthy, and without the (unsustainable though they might be) outside the family safety nets of "developed" countries. And all this in a regime of financial repression (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_repression https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_repression). Decline is at least as good a bet as postulating "extremely challenging" growth ... and perhaps the PRC's current aggressive foreign and military policies are in part in reflection of this. Certainly wouldn't be the first time that happened, that motivated a lot of French policy before WWI.