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The article mentions that China gets 6,895 investor visas whereas a country like South Korea gets 364 visas. Given that China is 1,350 mio. people whereas South

by chvid 12y ago

The article mentions that China gets 6,895 investor visas whereas a country like South Korea gets 364 visas. Given that China is 1,350 mio. people whereas South Korea is 50 mio., the ratio is really 7.3 visa pr. mio. South Korean compared to 5.1 visas pr. mio. Chinese. In the 80es there was a huge buying spree by the Japanese in California and other places. That stopped when Japan's economy popped in the early 90es. Today realestate in China is priced extremely high and that creates a lot for surplus capital for the Chinese to invest. The high realestate price level of China may persist for a while but not forever and this buying will probably stop as the Japanese did.

seanmcdirmid 12y ago
Good money on the Chinese real estate bubble popping this year. It is already stagnating, even in tier one cities. Since the whole system is set up on valuations going up significantly each year, a bit of prolonged stagnation should bring the entire system down unless the government steps in with heavy inflation.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
  - seanmcdirmid 12y ago
    Nobody wants to be a loser in China, and no one will sell there house if they can't make 200% profit but the first-hand property has to get sold because those property developers are leveraged like heck. That is where you'll see breakage first. Most speculators own 3+ apartments (usually unfinished and not even rentable!), so they have plenty of roofs over there heads. In Beijing alone, they estimate that some 40-60% of all apartments are not in use! My guess is that the government will eventually go with a property tax, which will make it expensive to just hold property and do nothing with it (this is what they should have done to pop this current bubble). They won't do anything with the apartments that are underwater (no margin calls) but they'll reclaim anyone who gets behind on their mortgage diligently (and many will just walk away).
thrownaway2424 12y ago
It's all over when they start buying American landmarks. Nothing good happened in or to Japan after some Japanese investors bought Rockefeller Center.
rtpg 12y ago
>Last year, the U.S. issued 6,895 visas to Chinese nationals under the EB-5 program, which allows foreigners to live in America if they invest a minimum of $500,000. South Koreans, the next largest group, got only 364 such visas. Canada this year closed down a similar program that had been swamped by Chinese demand. The fact that Canada closed down an immigration program where each individual would bring in $500k to the economy is just depressing. So much immigration law is just pure, unabashed racism.
- megablast 12y ago
  The problem can be, and you see it a bit in Australia, is that they end up pricing everybody else out of the market.
  - rtpg 12y ago
    If this were just about buying houses I understand that reasoning, but if its an investor visa, I imagine you need to actually put that money into something "productive".
    - nikanj 12y ago
      You only needed to lend it to the government for a few years
      - logicchains 12y ago
        If the assumptions behind GDP are valid, government spending may also be considered "productive".

by chvid 12y ago

seanmcdirmid 12y ago

Good money on the Chinese real estate bubble popping this year. It is already stagnating, even in tier one cities. Since the whole system is set up on valuations going up significantly each year, a bit of prolonged stagnation should bring the entire system down unless the government steps in with heavy inflation.

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
- seanmcdirmid 12y ago
  Nobody wants to be a loser in China, and no one will sell there house if they can't make 200% profit but the first-hand property has to get sold because those property developers are leveraged like heck. That is where you'll see breakage first. Most speculators own 3+ apartments (usually unfinished and not even rentable!), so they have plenty of roofs over there heads. In Beijing alone, they estimate that some 40-60% of all apartments are not in use! My guess is that the government will eventually go with a property tax, which will make it expensive to just hold property and do nothing with it (this is what they should have done to pop this current bubble). They won't do anything with the apartments that are underwater (no margin calls) but they'll reclaim anyone who gets behind on their mortgage diligently (and many will just walk away).

thrownaway2424 12y ago

It's all over when they start buying American landmarks. Nothing good happened in or to Japan after some Japanese investors bought Rockefeller Center.

rtpg 12y ago

>Last year, the U.S. issued 6,895 visas to Chinese nationals under the EB-5 program, which allows foreigners to live in America if they invest a minimum of $500,000. South Koreans, the next largest group, got only 364 such visas. Canada this year closed down a similar program that had been swamped by Chinese demand. The fact that Canada closed down an immigration program where each individual would bring in $500k to the economy is just depressing. So much immigration law is just pure, unabashed racism.

megablast 12y ago
The problem can be, and you see it a bit in Australia, is that they end up pricing everybody else out of the market.
- rtpg 12y ago
  If this were just about buying houses I understand that reasoning, but if its an investor visa, I imagine you need to actually put that money into something "productive".
  - nikanj 12y ago
    You only needed to lend it to the government for a few years
    - logicchains 12y ago
      If the assumptions behind GDP are valid, government spending may also be considered "productive".