Very nice read, from this lecture: >>So you're in the room. Conditioned on that fact, how worried should you be? How likely is it that you're going to die?

Very nice read, from this lecture: >>So you're in the room. Conditioned on that fact, how worried should you be? How likely is it that you're going to die? A: 1/36. Scott: OK. That would be one guess. >>One answer is that the dice have a 1/36 chance of landing snake-eyes, so you should be only a "little bit" worried (considering). A second reflection you could make is to consider, of people who enter the room, what the fraction is of people who ever get out. Let's say that it ends at 1,000. Then, 110 people get out and 1,000 die. If it ends at 10,000, then 1,110 people get out and 10,000 die. In either case, about 8/9 of the people who ever go into the room will die. But it's not really a problem. If you flip a coin, then 10 coins, then 100 coins and continue until you get all heads then vast majority of flipped coins will be heads while still any particular coin have 1/2 probability of landing heads. There just isn't any paradox or even anything surprising. Similarly here it's in my opinion obvious that chances of dying are 1/36 and they are the same for all people in the situation. The fact that most people die isn't a paradox at all.