10 ms·

Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

264 points by houseofshards 12y ago

awjr 12y ago
Out of curiosity, with the recent release of their patents, is Tesla going to be enabling other car manufacturers to purchase these batteries? Standardising on a housing module across manufacturers seems a 'good thing' for the general consumer.
- dm2 12y ago
  I don't see why they wouldn't, they already sell their powertrains to other companies. It would probably depend on how much extra capacity they have. The Tesla vehicles are in high demand and only going to be in more demand when they start rolling out the Tesla 3 (which is really the 4th Tesla isn't it, I guess they're referring to it being the 3rd generation with the Model S and X being the same generation).
  - twsted 12y ago
    Elon gave a funny explanation for the new name: he would have wanted a Model E to compose S E X, but the name was already taken. So he chose 3 to at least have S 3 X.
    - DiabloD3 12y ago
      I don't know why this is being downvoted. Elon Musk himself confirmed that S, E, and X was supposed to make fun of how sex is used in marketing to sell.
      - deleted 12y ago
        [deleted]
- aharonovich 12y ago
  They plan to have capacity of 35-50 GWh at 2020 [0]. IMO they will not be able to produce so many cars, to use all the battery capacity in Tesla cars they would to make ~0.5 Million cars per year. This means that they do plan to sell the excess capacity. [0]http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachme...
  - tristramg 12y ago
    They say so in their announcement: “and for the stationary storage market” A huge growing market will be batteries in homes. Germany is trying to push it to go from 30% of photovoltaic self-consumption up to 70% (when the sun shines, people usually are away at work). The excessive electricity is sold to the network. This requires between 5 and 10kWh storage capacity (compared to the 50+kWh of a Tesla) for a single family home. The current price is about 20€cts/kWh for the storage over the whole lifetime. So it is not economic yet, but it should be within a few years and I hope that Tesla will contribute to it. Solar costs about 15€cts/kWh and electricity from the network is around 25€cts/kWh. When solar will reach 10€cts and storage 10€cts/kWh, the market will be very important.
dm2 12y ago
So are they working on a new battery design? The last time I did some research on the Tesla batteries it was just a ton of high-quality 18650s, is this still true?
- Chronic29 12y ago
  Yes.
- marvin 12y ago
  Tesla still uses 18650 cells exclusively, unless I'm misinformed. They are still chemistry and form factor agnostic and only care about performance and price. This announcement is part of a plan to further reduce battery cell and battery pack cost, as well as increase production volumes by a factor of 10-50 over the next 10 years. I don't think there is any information on how these new batteries will look yet.
Kayou 12y ago
Why are most of the lithium cells cylindrical, while most of our devices are cuboid? (I think of phones, laptops, external battries... but phones and most laptops have flat lithium cells nowadays). Is cylindrical less expensive? Is it more secure? It seems like a waste of space to me.
- jacquesm 12y ago
  It's an efficiency matter. The cylinder gives good electrode surface relative to the amount of matter contained. For a cube that ratio would be much worse, for a sphere it would be optimal, but spheres are harder to manufacture and connect to, as well as harder to stack in arrays. So we take a medium between the sphere and the cube and end up with a sweet spot in the cylindrical shape.
  - SeanLuke 12y ago
    This doesn't explain why LiPoly batteries are cuboids.
    - jacquesm 12y ago
      Indeed it does not, this is about Tesla's and Panasonics 'gigafactory' which will make Lithium-Ion batteries in a cylindrical form factor. Lithium Polymer batteries (or LiPo for short) are a special case of Lithium-Ion batteries. They are sold in a 'pouch' format (and they are not the first to use a format like that, for instance, in the polaroid cartridges there used to be a battery in a similar form factor (polapulse)). The reason why LiPo batteries are not so constrained in shape as their siblings is that the electrolyte is a liquid. Solid electrolyte batteries are typically much more constrained in terms of shapes. This is also why regular car batteries (lead-acid) can be block shaped, the acid is also a liquid. The polapulse was an interesting battery, it only had to fire the camera 10 times but was quite high current. The packaging constraints of the cartridge dictated the battery geometry and so a flat pouch like battery was born. LiPo batteries exist in all kinds of interesting shapes and sizes too.
      - 12y ago
ck2 12y ago
I want to own an electric car so badly in my lifetime. Really hope this makes that happen. They sure are quiet though, I worry about pets and wildlife. Gigafactory will employ about 6,500 people by 2020 Delivery truck drivers? I mean the factory is should be mostly automated by 2020.
- C7E0F338E42448 12y ago
  where do you live, where owning an electric car in your lifetime seem like a distant dream? and why do you want to own one so badly?
  - davman 12y ago
    Well I live in the UK, I've specced out a mid range Model S with a few optional extras so this comes in at £67000. Lets assume by some miracle I manage to save up a £7000 deposit, this leaves me with some £60000 to find. At a quick google around its pretty hard to get car finance over £25000, but lets have a crack at it and try autotrader. They'll only let me borrow £50k over 60 months which gives me monthly payments of £958. My monthly take home is £1800, so that leaves me with £852 to play with, my rent is £450 and my council tax is £101, so now we're down to £301 and I haven't paid for my utilities yet. So an electric car in my lifetime (or at least one with a useful range like the Teslas) is a distant dream. At least until the Model 3.
    - outworlder 12y ago
      Are you working in IT?
      - davman 12y ago
        Yes, I'm an entry-level SysAdmin
        eru 12y ago
        Work on improving your income. It's easy in IT, if you are willing to invest some hours in self-improvement and are willing to switch around jobs.
ksec 12y ago
Again as with my previous response, I still dont get why the need for a Gigafactory. Battery Industry are an extremely automated, high volume market and with profit margin in single digit. Cutting those off aren't going to automatically made electric cars affordable. Unless Telsa and Panasonic has jointly developed an revolutionary battery that is going to need some funding and mass produced. But any new battery will need years in time for safety testing. And the news would properly have leaked by now.
- jacquesm 12y ago
  Making things in volume reduces the price. The profits on the batteries may be low (I'm not an insider so I have no idea what the profits are on these), but the profits on the cars (which Tesla makes) are reasonably high. It's like investing in infrastructure when you make something that uses that infrastructure, akin to a hosting facility investing the fibre optic lines that connect it. Electric cars are already affordable, that's not the main sticking point (a fast way to charge them and a widely rolled out network of charging stations is). If they manage to shave a few percentage points off the cost of production and create jobs in the process I don't see the problem.
  - johansch 12y ago
    Tesla says: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory "In cooperation with strategic battery manufacturing partners, we’re planning to build a large scale factory that will allow us to achieve economies of scale and minimize costs through innovative manufacturing, reduction of logistics waste, optimization of co-located processes and reduced overhead." I guess that and also securing the supply chain for themselves as the rest of the car industry starts/continues to compete with them for the battery supply.
- twoodfin 12y ago
  This is perhaps too cynical, but it's to Tesla's advantage to be supporting as many workers in the United States as possible. They benefit tremendously from wide array of state and federal incentives, and having jobs directly depending on the continuation of those incentives makes them politically more likely to continue.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
pptr1 12y ago
This just shows me that Tesla is able to execute. The Gigafactory, opening up patents, rapidly growing charger network, and the eventual $35k Gen III tells me they have tons of potential in the future. Tesla is thinking big. They want everyone in the world to eventually have a electric car. I think they will own a significant share of premium market after they release the Gen III. However, they will be cars that people will desire at a cheaper price point than the Gen III, from different manufacturers. Also some people love certain car brands regardless of anything else, and mostly will stick to those brands. It will be great that those other car brands will be able to more easily make electric vehicles. Those electric cars from other manufacturers will most likely have a Tesla battery and charge on Tesla charging station. I think this is true disruption.
- DannyBee 12y ago
  "opening up patents" There is still no truly legally enforceable promise, that explains in detail, exactly what Elon is giving away and what he isn't, and what the terms are. It's now 1.5 months later, and despite many people asking such a thing, nothing has been forthcoming at all. So before you give them amazing amounts of credit for this, could we please wait till they actually do something more than PR?
  - nitrogen 12y ago
    Do you know for sure that they haven't been negotiating the promised agreements in secret? I'd be very surprised if behemoth automakers managed to finish an agreement in less than two months, when it can take years in other cases. I'd also be surprised if the automakers wanted their names thrown around by Tesla before anything was official.
    - Chronic29 12y ago
      We know for sure they haven't been negotiating and agreement. You'd hear about it otherwise.
  - tzm 12y ago
    Nissan and BMW are currently hammering details with Tesla on this very issue.
snarfy 12y ago
Has there been any analysis on the amount of joule energy pumped out of all of the current gas stations on a daily basis? I'm worried the current electric grid is woefully insufficient for a world full of electric cars. I know their are plenty of electric lines out there running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity already.
- azunds 12y ago
  With current pv technology this probably will not be a problem
  - jacquesm 12y ago
    What technology generates the current has nothing to do with whether or the GPs concerns are valid. It's all about transportation, not just generation. Grand parent mentioned the grid, not the plants.
    - erikpukinskis 12y ago
      You need a lot less grid if you're generating power on the roof of the building you park your car in.
      - jacquesm 12y ago
        Do the math. It will not work. Sunlight in full sun with the sun at 90 degrees relative to the panels, in winter (cool panels) will give you about 200 watts / square meter of surface of electricity at the exit of the inverter. You'll need a little bit less grid, definitely not a lot. Those buildings are typically multi-layer and don't have a roof over the top layer (though not always) so it's not a trivial modification either. You could design that in from day 1 of course and it will help a little bit but that's borderline making money rather than a significant reduction in infrastructure. Say your carpark is 100 meters long and 30 meters wide, that will house 50x4x4 = 800 cars to charge but you're collecting (on a good day) no more than 100x30x200 = 600 KW. It's not nothing, but if you take into account that a single normal car charger is already 3 KW to charge a full park of such cars would require 2.4 MW. And that's the slowest rate of charge for those cars, go faster and the requirements shoot up. Best case with only 4 decks of cars you're looking at a 25% reduction. Worst case not more than 10%. Good but not great. The grid is definitely going to see some structural modifications before we can push the equivalent of our current gasoline consumption through it.
julianpye 12y ago
This is very significant for Panasonic's new direction. They now partner with a startup that takes on a IPR policy radically different from the Panasonic of the past. Panasonic's R&D engineers used to be measured internally by the amount of patents filed and the company had a large presence in every significant patent pool. In addition it means that one of Panasonic's key manufacturing expertise will be located overseas, which is also a radical departure to the mindset of keeping core manufacturing as 'black boxes' in Japan. However this may still apply to components that are integrated in the Gigafactory.
- jacquesm 12y ago
  > which is also a radical departure to the mindset of keeping core manufacturing as 'black boxes' in Japan. I saw some of this up close recently and it was quite interesting how Japan was still 'fighting the last war' in this sense. They were trying to avoid a repetition of Japanese companies doing an end-run around American and European companies by doing their manufacturing and then turning around to innovate on the processes and principles in the end resulting in a wholly new industrial base. But the world has long moved on from that time and even though there is plenty of innovation in this sphere the threat of a manufacturer turning into a competitor is still present (for instance, in China) but between the US, the EU and Japan that threat is all but non-existent. Japanese companies are slowly coming around on this and are becoming more free with respect to sharing technology and IP with other partners. This Panasonic move is another step in that direction.
cpwright 12y ago
I found some of the business arrangements interesting, though maybe not surprising. I think those are the real new details of this release. First, they'll be producing 50GwH of packs, but only 35GwH of cells; so they'll still be dependent on external cell manufacturing for a sizable portion of the packs. Second, that it sounds like Panasonic will basically own and run the cell part of the factory; as opposed to Tesla or a joint venture purchasing the equipment and making the cells themselves.
- centizen 12y ago
  Panasonic already has one of the largest production complexes in the world for battery production; but with the huge demand from Tesla they have had a hard time keeping up with the market. I see this as a way for them to scale up to a capacity that can handle Tesla's orders while still being able to produce 18650 cells for the rest of the electronics market. Over the past few months I (and many others) have had a very hard time getting a reliable supply of the NCR18650B cells Tesla is using in their packs. I don't see Panasonic wanting to give up any of the control it has over this sector. The agreement is probably positioned to obligate Tesla to purchase X amount of cells a year to make the new gigafactory economically feasible for Panasonic.
ansible 12y ago
I am curious about the choice of lithium-ion vs. something like lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry. Obviously, there is a good reason for Tesla and Panasonic not to have chosen LFP, does anyone know why? I know the energy density is lower, but are there other reasons?
- swypych 12y ago
  I would suspect safety is probably the driving force here, especially considering the capacity of these batteries. https://suite.io/mike-dehaan/4bfn2v4 https://suite.io/mike-dehaan/4bfn2v4 http://www.umanitoba.ca/outreach/conferences/phev2007/PHEV2007/proceedings/PluginHwy_PHEV2007_Session1_Guerfi.pdf http://www.umanitoba.ca/outreach/conferences/phev2007/PHEV20...
- seanflyon 12y ago
  I assume cost per watt-hour is the dominant factor.
- TD-Linux 12y ago
  Lithium iron phosphate has much lower energy density (energy per weight). This is the most important factor in the choice of battery, along with the cost per energy. LFP's advantage is in power density, which is not an issue with the size of pack that Tesla is using.
rthomas6 12y ago
In terms of investing (buying Tesla stock), is Tesla's probable-seeming big success with their next two cars already built in to the price? In other words, how overvalued is Tesla stock? Would it be worth making it a significant fraction of my portfolio?
- howeyc 12y ago
  > In terms of investing (buying Tesla stock), is Tesla's probable-seeming big success with their next two cars already built in to the price? Definitely. > In other words, how overvalued is Tesla stock? For those following Discounted-Cash-Flow models, a lot.[1] > Would it be worth making it a significant fraction of my portfolio? That's up to you. I'll leave you two parting thoughts: a) It could follow the path of Amazon, lots of people screaming "overpriced" forever as it rises. b) Building a lasting car manufacturer isn't exactly easy.[2] --- [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/aswath-damodaran-tesla-valuation-2014-3 http://www.businessinsider.com/aswath-damodaran-tesla-valuat... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man...

264 points by houseofshards 12y ago

awjr 12y ago

Out of curiosity, with the recent release of their patents, is Tesla going to be enabling other car manufacturers to purchase these batteries? Standardising on a housing module across manufacturers seems a 'good thing' for the general consumer.

dm2 12y ago
I don't see why they wouldn't, they already sell their powertrains to other companies. It would probably depend on how much extra capacity they have. The Tesla vehicles are in high demand and only going to be in more demand when they start rolling out the Tesla 3 (which is really the 4th Tesla isn't it, I guess they're referring to it being the 3rd generation with the Model S and X being the same generation).
- twsted 12y ago
  Elon gave a funny explanation for the new name: he would have wanted a Model E to compose S E X, but the name was already taken. So he chose 3 to at least have S 3 X.
  - DiabloD3 12y ago
    I don't know why this is being downvoted. Elon Musk himself confirmed that S, E, and X was supposed to make fun of how sex is used in marketing to sell.
    - deleted 12y ago
      [deleted]
aharonovich 12y ago
They plan to have capacity of 35-50 GWh at 2020 [0]. IMO they will not be able to produce so many cars, to use all the battery capacity in Tesla cars they would to make ~0.5 Million cars per year. This means that they do plan to sell the excess capacity. [0]http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachme...
- tristramg 12y ago
  They say so in their announcement: “and for the stationary storage market” A huge growing market will be batteries in homes. Germany is trying to push it to go from 30% of photovoltaic self-consumption up to 70% (when the sun shines, people usually are away at work). The excessive electricity is sold to the network. This requires between 5 and 10kWh storage capacity (compared to the 50+kWh of a Tesla) for a single family home. The current price is about 20€cts/kWh for the storage over the whole lifetime. So it is not economic yet, but it should be within a few years and I hope that Tesla will contribute to it. Solar costs about 15€cts/kWh and electricity from the network is around 25€cts/kWh. When solar will reach 10€cts and storage 10€cts/kWh, the market will be very important.

dm2 12y ago

So are they working on a new battery design? The last time I did some research on the Tesla batteries it was just a ton of high-quality 18650s, is this still true?

Chronic29 12y ago
Yes.
marvin 12y ago
Tesla still uses 18650 cells exclusively, unless I'm misinformed. They are still chemistry and form factor agnostic and only care about performance and price. This announcement is part of a plan to further reduce battery cell and battery pack cost, as well as increase production volumes by a factor of 10-50 over the next 10 years. I don't think there is any information on how these new batteries will look yet.

Kayou 12y ago

Why are most of the lithium cells cylindrical, while most of our devices are cuboid? (I think of phones, laptops, external battries... but phones and most laptops have flat lithium cells nowadays). Is cylindrical less expensive? Is it more secure? It seems like a waste of space to me.

jacquesm 12y ago
It's an efficiency matter. The cylinder gives good electrode surface relative to the amount of matter contained. For a cube that ratio would be much worse, for a sphere it would be optimal, but spheres are harder to manufacture and connect to, as well as harder to stack in arrays. So we take a medium between the sphere and the cube and end up with a sweet spot in the cylindrical shape.
- SeanLuke 12y ago
  This doesn't explain why LiPoly batteries are cuboids.
  - jacquesm 12y ago
    Indeed it does not, this is about Tesla's and Panasonics 'gigafactory' which will make Lithium-Ion batteries in a cylindrical form factor. Lithium Polymer batteries (or LiPo for short) are a special case of Lithium-Ion batteries. They are sold in a 'pouch' format (and they are not the first to use a format like that, for instance, in the polaroid cartridges there used to be a battery in a similar form factor (polapulse)). The reason why LiPo batteries are not so constrained in shape as their siblings is that the electrolyte is a liquid. Solid electrolyte batteries are typically much more constrained in terms of shapes. This is also why regular car batteries (lead-acid) can be block shaped, the acid is also a liquid. The polapulse was an interesting battery, it only had to fire the camera 10 times but was quite high current. The packaging constraints of the cartridge dictated the battery geometry and so a flat pouch like battery was born. LiPo batteries exist in all kinds of interesting shapes and sizes too.
    - 12y ago

ck2 12y ago

I want to own an electric car so badly in my lifetime. Really hope this makes that happen. They sure are quiet though, I worry about pets and wildlife. Gigafactory will employ about 6,500 people by 2020 Delivery truck drivers? I mean the factory is should be mostly automated by 2020.

C7E0F338E42448 12y ago
where do you live, where owning an electric car in your lifetime seem like a distant dream? and why do you want to own one so badly?
- davman 12y ago
  Well I live in the UK, I've specced out a mid range Model S with a few optional extras so this comes in at £67000. Lets assume by some miracle I manage to save up a £7000 deposit, this leaves me with some £60000 to find. At a quick google around its pretty hard to get car finance over £25000, but lets have a crack at it and try autotrader. They'll only let me borrow £50k over 60 months which gives me monthly payments of £958. My monthly take home is £1800, so that leaves me with £852 to play with, my rent is £450 and my council tax is £101, so now we're down to £301 and I haven't paid for my utilities yet. So an electric car in my lifetime (or at least one with a useful range like the Teslas) is a distant dream. At least until the Model 3.
  - outworlder 12y ago
    Are you working in IT?
    - davman 12y ago
      Yes, I'm an entry-level SysAdmin
      - eru 12y ago
        Work on improving your income. It's easy in IT, if you are willing to invest some hours in self-improvement and are willing to switch around jobs.

ksec 12y ago

Again as with my previous response, I still dont get why the need for a Gigafactory. Battery Industry are an extremely automated, high volume market and with profit margin in single digit. Cutting those off aren't going to automatically made electric cars affordable. Unless Telsa and Panasonic has jointly developed an revolutionary battery that is going to need some funding and mass produced. But any new battery will need years in time for safety testing. And the news would properly have leaked by now.

jacquesm 12y ago
Making things in volume reduces the price. The profits on the batteries may be low (I'm not an insider so I have no idea what the profits are on these), but the profits on the cars (which Tesla makes) are reasonably high. It's like investing in infrastructure when you make something that uses that infrastructure, akin to a hosting facility investing the fibre optic lines that connect it. Electric cars are already affordable, that's not the main sticking point (a fast way to charge them and a widely rolled out network of charging stations is). If they manage to shave a few percentage points off the cost of production and create jobs in the process I don't see the problem.
- johansch 12y ago
  Tesla says: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory "In cooperation with strategic battery manufacturing partners, we’re planning to build a large scale factory that will allow us to achieve economies of scale and minimize costs through innovative manufacturing, reduction of logistics waste, optimization of co-located processes and reduced overhead." I guess that and also securing the supply chain for themselves as the rest of the car industry starts/continues to compete with them for the battery supply.
twoodfin 12y ago
This is perhaps too cynical, but it's to Tesla's advantage to be supporting as many workers in the United States as possible. They benefit tremendously from wide array of state and federal incentives, and having jobs directly depending on the continuation of those incentives makes them politically more likely to continue.

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

pptr1 12y ago

This just shows me that Tesla is able to execute. The Gigafactory, opening up patents, rapidly growing charger network, and the eventual $35k Gen III tells me they have tons of potential in the future. Tesla is thinking big. They want everyone in the world to eventually have a electric car. I think they will own a significant share of premium market after they release the Gen III. However, they will be cars that people will desire at a cheaper price point than the Gen III, from different manufacturers. Also some people love certain car brands regardless of anything else, and mostly will stick to those brands. It will be great that those other car brands will be able to more easily make electric vehicles. Those electric cars from other manufacturers will most likely have a Tesla battery and charge on Tesla charging station. I think this is true disruption.

DannyBee 12y ago
"opening up patents" There is still no truly legally enforceable promise, that explains in detail, exactly what Elon is giving away and what he isn't, and what the terms are. It's now 1.5 months later, and despite many people asking such a thing, nothing has been forthcoming at all. So before you give them amazing amounts of credit for this, could we please wait till they actually do something more than PR?
- nitrogen 12y ago
  Do you know for sure that they haven't been negotiating the promised agreements in secret? I'd be very surprised if behemoth automakers managed to finish an agreement in less than two months, when it can take years in other cases. I'd also be surprised if the automakers wanted their names thrown around by Tesla before anything was official.
  - Chronic29 12y ago
    We know for sure they haven't been negotiating and agreement. You'd hear about it otherwise.
- tzm 12y ago
  Nissan and BMW are currently hammering details with Tesla on this very issue.

snarfy 12y ago

Has there been any analysis on the amount of joule energy pumped out of all of the current gas stations on a daily basis? I'm worried the current electric grid is woefully insufficient for a world full of electric cars. I know their are plenty of electric lines out there running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity already.

azunds 12y ago
With current pv technology this probably will not be a problem
- jacquesm 12y ago
  What technology generates the current has nothing to do with whether or the GPs concerns are valid. It's all about transportation, not just generation. Grand parent mentioned the grid, not the plants.
  - erikpukinskis 12y ago
    You need a lot less grid if you're generating power on the roof of the building you park your car in.
    - jacquesm 12y ago
      Do the math. It will not work. Sunlight in full sun with the sun at 90 degrees relative to the panels, in winter (cool panels) will give you about 200 watts / square meter of surface of electricity at the exit of the inverter. You'll need a little bit less grid, definitely not a lot. Those buildings are typically multi-layer and don't have a roof over the top layer (though not always) so it's not a trivial modification either. You could design that in from day 1 of course and it will help a little bit but that's borderline making money rather than a significant reduction in infrastructure. Say your carpark is 100 meters long and 30 meters wide, that will house 50x4x4 = 800 cars to charge but you're collecting (on a good day) no more than 100x30x200 = 600 KW. It's not nothing, but if you take into account that a single normal car charger is already 3 KW to charge a full park of such cars would require 2.4 MW. And that's the slowest rate of charge for those cars, go faster and the requirements shoot up. Best case with only 4 decks of cars you're looking at a 25% reduction. Worst case not more than 10%. Good but not great. The grid is definitely going to see some structural modifications before we can push the equivalent of our current gasoline consumption through it.

julianpye 12y ago

This is very significant for Panasonic's new direction. They now partner with a startup that takes on a IPR policy radically different from the Panasonic of the past. Panasonic's R&D engineers used to be measured internally by the amount of patents filed and the company had a large presence in every significant patent pool. In addition it means that one of Panasonic's key manufacturing expertise will be located overseas, which is also a radical departure to the mindset of keeping core manufacturing as 'black boxes' in Japan. However this may still apply to components that are integrated in the Gigafactory.

jacquesm 12y ago
> which is also a radical departure to the mindset of keeping core manufacturing as 'black boxes' in Japan. I saw some of this up close recently and it was quite interesting how Japan was still 'fighting the last war' in this sense. They were trying to avoid a repetition of Japanese companies doing an end-run around American and European companies by doing their manufacturing and then turning around to innovate on the processes and principles in the end resulting in a wholly new industrial base. But the world has long moved on from that time and even though there is plenty of innovation in this sphere the threat of a manufacturer turning into a competitor is still present (for instance, in China) but between the US, the EU and Japan that threat is all but non-existent. Japanese companies are slowly coming around on this and are becoming more free with respect to sharing technology and IP with other partners. This Panasonic move is another step in that direction.

cpwright 12y ago

I found some of the business arrangements interesting, though maybe not surprising. I think those are the real new details of this release. First, they'll be producing 50GwH of packs, but only 35GwH of cells; so they'll still be dependent on external cell manufacturing for a sizable portion of the packs. Second, that it sounds like Panasonic will basically own and run the cell part of the factory; as opposed to Tesla or a joint venture purchasing the equipment and making the cells themselves.

centizen 12y ago
Panasonic already has one of the largest production complexes in the world for battery production; but with the huge demand from Tesla they have had a hard time keeping up with the market. I see this as a way for them to scale up to a capacity that can handle Tesla's orders while still being able to produce 18650 cells for the rest of the electronics market. Over the past few months I (and many others) have had a very hard time getting a reliable supply of the NCR18650B cells Tesla is using in their packs. I don't see Panasonic wanting to give up any of the control it has over this sector. The agreement is probably positioned to obligate Tesla to purchase X amount of cells a year to make the new gigafactory economically feasible for Panasonic.

ansible 12y ago

I am curious about the choice of lithium-ion vs. something like lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry. Obviously, there is a good reason for Tesla and Panasonic not to have chosen LFP, does anyone know why? I know the energy density is lower, but are there other reasons?

swypych 12y ago
I would suspect safety is probably the driving force here, especially considering the capacity of these batteries. https://suite.io/mike-dehaan/4bfn2v4 https://suite.io/mike-dehaan/4bfn2v4 http://www.umanitoba.ca/outreach/conferences/phev2007/PHEV2007/proceedings/PluginHwy_PHEV2007_Session1_Guerfi.pdf http://www.umanitoba.ca/outreach/conferences/phev2007/PHEV20...
seanflyon 12y ago
I assume cost per watt-hour is the dominant factor.
TD-Linux 12y ago
Lithium iron phosphate has much lower energy density (energy per weight). This is the most important factor in the choice of battery, along with the cost per energy. LFP's advantage is in power density, which is not an issue with the size of pack that Tesla is using.

rthomas6 12y ago

In terms of investing (buying Tesla stock), is Tesla's probable-seeming big success with their next two cars already built in to the price? In other words, how overvalued is Tesla stock? Would it be worth making it a significant fraction of my portfolio?

howeyc 12y ago
> In terms of investing (buying Tesla stock), is Tesla's probable-seeming big success with their next two cars already built in to the price? Definitely. > In other words, how overvalued is Tesla stock? For those following Discounted-Cash-Flow models, a lot.[1] > Would it be worth making it a significant fraction of my portfolio? That's up to you. I'll leave you two parting thoughts: a) It could follow the path of Amazon, lots of people screaming "overpriced" forever as it rises. b) Building a lasting car manufacturer isn't exactly easy.[2] --- [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/aswath-damodaran-tesla-valuation-2014-3 http://www.businessinsider.com/aswath-damodaran-tesla-valuat... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man...