5 ms·

"Still, there is no evidence that a weakened magnetic field would result in a doomsday for Earth."... "Researchers think power grids and communication systems w

by dm2 12y ago

"Still, there is no evidence that a weakened magnetic field would result in a doomsday for Earth."... "Researchers think power grids and communication systems would be most at risk." Somebody give it to me strait, do I need to build a doomsday bunker ASAP and start stockpiling supplies?

geetee 12y ago
Depends on the article you read :) This one sounds much scarier: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2014/06/10/earths-magnetic-flips-may-triggered-mass-extinctions/#.U8WdIvnHsbY http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2014/06/10/earths-... I wonder how it will affect animals that migrate...
- dm2 12y ago
  It sounds like a relatively gradual process, animals might be able to adapt quickly, they've done it before.
  - pbhjpbhj 12y ago
    Gradual how? If there's no overall magnetic moment then surely navigation on magnetic field sensing organs will simply fail, if it switches/moves - even gradually - and stays the same strength then the animal likely ends up in entirely the wrong place with the wrong foodstuffs and climate. Can't see that either of those "gradual processes" is going to work well. Certainly the magnetic field has flipped before but do we know that animals that use magnetism for migratory guidance were able to "adapt quickly". Can you walk us through the evidence?
    - jdmichal 12y ago
      You're assuming that this is the only method of navigation they have, instead of it being one tool within their navigation tool belt. Also, I'm sure magnetic sensory organs have some natural error to them that they are constantly re-calibrating for. If the reversal happens within the bounds of natural error and recalibration, then I suspect they would have little trouble adapting.
      - thret 12y ago
        Correct, animals such as homing pigeons primarily rely on sight and landmarks. There are no known animals that exclusively use magnetic fields to navigate.
        dm2 12y ago
        The Monarch Butterfly uses it when the sun isn't available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly#Migratory_Theory_Mechanisms http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly#Migratory_The... Apparently it "sees" the magnetic fields, but it also relies on the sun. I don't think it's been studied if it can reorient itself at birth if the poles are switched or if it's "hardcoded".
        adrianN 12y ago
        There are some bacteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetotactic_bacteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetotactic_bacteria
        thret 12y ago
        This is a good point, although I submit that the magnetic direction is irrelevant for their purpose.
        pbhjpbhj 12y ago
        I wonder how they manage when flying at night. Do those birds that are more capable night-flyers have superior magnetic senses?
bellerocky 12y ago
> do I need to build a doomsday bunker ASAP No. The cost of building and maintaining a bunker is higher than any chance of ever realizing a benefit. This is true for any doomsday type scenario but if you live in a place with dangerously high winds or tornadoes a cellar might be a good place to weather a storm. > stockpiling supplies? Yes, you should always stockpile food and water in case of emergency [1] [1] http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/foodwater/prepare.asp http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/foodwater/prepare.asp
- higherpurpose 12y ago
  Do they still have that ridiculous law that makes you a potential terrorist for stockpiling more than 7 day's worth of food? http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/10-ridiculous-things-that-make-you.html http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/10-ridiculous-things-tha... Apparently something like that just happened last month: http://www.dcclothesline.com/2014/06/23/fbi-raids-home-dangerous-doomsday-prepper-agents-find-legally-owned-firearms-barrels-food/ http://www.dcclothesline.com/2014/06/23/fbi-raids-home-dange...
  - Houshalter 12y ago
    As far as I can tell it's not a law, just something that could make you suspicious. Which is still ridiculous but not a crime.
  - bellerocky 12y ago
    > Apparently something like that just happened last month. That guy was making booby traps and telling an undercover FBI agent that he is going to kill federal agents. http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/fbi-arrests-doomsday-prepper-martin-winters/2184898 http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/fbi-arrests-...
    - Houshalter 12y ago
      The informants claims turned out to be completely wrong. >But the claims and allegations may have been blown way out of proportion. After police obtained a warrant to search Winters’ home based on information obtained from a confidential informant they were probably surprised that not only did Winters have no explosive booby troops set up all over his property as had been claimed, he was also far short of having possession of the fifty high-powered rifles that police said he had been stockpiling. The police claimed he was crazy and plotting an elaborate confrontation with police, but there was no confrontation and the guy turned himself in peacefully. They are only charging him with building some unspecified "destructive device" without a permit, which he has plead not guilty.
nextstep 12y ago
If the Earth's magnetic field wasn't protecting the earth, even for a few minutes, tons of high energy particles from the sun would enter our atmosphere. That could be pretty shitty for life on Earth (even if it doesn't mass-extinct any species).
- rdmcfee 12y ago
  Experts don't think that will happen: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on_biosphere http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on...
Natsu 12y ago
The article said that it was previously expected in ~2000 years, then mentioned that the rate is about 10x faster. Assuming (quite possibly erroneously) that the relationship is linear and both of these factoids are accurate, that puts the change on the order of ~200 years. So it doesn't seem likely that most of us will live to see it. That said, I understood it to be a gradual process and I thought there was a time of little to no magnetic field while it's shifting, which might be disconcerting. Hopefully it's just a matter of securing power lines and hardening satellites, but I'm not sure whether anyone has studied this in much depth.
troymc 12y ago
The author didn't cite any sources but I suspect they were alluding to the fact that we know (roughly) when the field reversals happened in the recent past, and we also know when the mass extinctions were, and one can then see that the field reversals don't tend to cause mass extinctions. I guess the main reason is that the Earth's atmosphere also provides a lot of radiation protection, regardless of what the magnetic field is doing.
gone35 12y ago
The concern is that the Earth's magnetic field (likely) weakens around 10% or so during transitions, which leads to an increase in ionizing radiation reaching the surface. This leads to two different risks: - Biospheric effects, due to increased rates of DNA damage; and - Infrastructure effects, due to increased radiation damage to satellites, or damages to power grids due to large induced currents from geomagnetic storms. Infrastructure effects are well understood: higher risk of power or communications outages. You can mitigate that risk by stockpiling water (which is a good thing to do anyway), buying a diesel generator, etc. On the other hand, biospheric effects are less well understood. There is some statistical evidence of some species going extinct right around pole reversals, and several plausible mechanisms have been proposed, but the evidence is by no means conclusive, due in part to intrinsic limits in the fossil record. Note however that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, so biospheric effects cannot be entirely discarded. But it is also unclear what steps could anyone take to mitigate such uncertain but potentially fat-tailed risks, so it is your call.
- kamaal 12y ago
  We also need to take into account cascading effects on a particular event. Lets say, for example global electricity is reduced to 30% of its current supply by radiation damage. I won't say the entire human species may go extinct, but for sure a lot of people will die. Literally nothing works without electricity today, starting from food production, to distribution, to cooking, to supply of water to literally every aspect of our life. I bet that number will be really high. Like more than 50% of the humans. I guess what you see then is struggle for the control of resources. A certain powerful groups will control the supply of resources and hence will dictate how every thing will play out from there on.
  - Cthulhu_ 12y ago
    That is a possible scenario, but one that is only feasible if it were to suddenly happen; by the looks of it though, these effects will not be sudden, and will not be global; it's likely power outages will be slightly more common, but at the same time people can mitigate the effects by adding redundancy or shielding or however it works. So while the earth may be more susceptible to solar flares, it won't be as dramatic as your scenario (or that of doomsday preppers) states.

by dm2 12y ago

geetee 12y ago

Depends on the article you read :) This one sounds much scarier: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2014/06/10/earths-magnetic-flips-may-triggered-mass-extinctions/#.U8WdIvnHsbY http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2014/06/10/earths-... I wonder how it will affect animals that migrate...

dm2 12y ago
It sounds like a relatively gradual process, animals might be able to adapt quickly, they've done it before.
- pbhjpbhj 12y ago
  Gradual how? If there's no overall magnetic moment then surely navigation on magnetic field sensing organs will simply fail, if it switches/moves - even gradually - and stays the same strength then the animal likely ends up in entirely the wrong place with the wrong foodstuffs and climate. Can't see that either of those "gradual processes" is going to work well. Certainly the magnetic field has flipped before but do we know that animals that use magnetism for migratory guidance were able to "adapt quickly". Can you walk us through the evidence?
  - jdmichal 12y ago
    You're assuming that this is the only method of navigation they have, instead of it being one tool within their navigation tool belt. Also, I'm sure magnetic sensory organs have some natural error to them that they are constantly re-calibrating for. If the reversal happens within the bounds of natural error and recalibration, then I suspect they would have little trouble adapting.
    - thret 12y ago
      Correct, animals such as homing pigeons primarily rely on sight and landmarks. There are no known animals that exclusively use magnetic fields to navigate.
      - dm2 12y ago
        The Monarch Butterfly uses it when the sun isn't available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly#Migratory_Theory_Mechanisms http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly#Migratory_The... Apparently it "sees" the magnetic fields, but it also relies on the sun. I don't think it's been studied if it can reorient itself at birth if the poles are switched or if it's "hardcoded".
      - adrianN 12y ago
        There are some bacteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetotactic_bacteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetotactic_bacteria
        thret 12y ago
        This is a good point, although I submit that the magnetic direction is irrelevant for their purpose.
      - pbhjpbhj 12y ago
        I wonder how they manage when flying at night. Do those birds that are more capable night-flyers have superior magnetic senses?

bellerocky 12y ago

> do I need to build a doomsday bunker ASAP No. The cost of building and maintaining a bunker is higher than any chance of ever realizing a benefit. This is true for any doomsday type scenario but if you live in a place with dangerously high winds or tornadoes a cellar might be a good place to weather a storm. > stockpiling supplies? Yes, you should always stockpile food and water in case of emergency [1] [1] http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/foodwater/prepare.asp http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/foodwater/prepare.asp

higherpurpose 12y ago
Do they still have that ridiculous law that makes you a potential terrorist for stockpiling more than 7 day's worth of food? http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/10-ridiculous-things-that-make-you.html http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/10-ridiculous-things-tha... Apparently something like that just happened last month: http://www.dcclothesline.com/2014/06/23/fbi-raids-home-dangerous-doomsday-prepper-agents-find-legally-owned-firearms-barrels-food/ http://www.dcclothesline.com/2014/06/23/fbi-raids-home-dange...
- Houshalter 12y ago
  As far as I can tell it's not a law, just something that could make you suspicious. Which is still ridiculous but not a crime.
- bellerocky 12y ago
  > Apparently something like that just happened last month. That guy was making booby traps and telling an undercover FBI agent that he is going to kill federal agents. http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/fbi-arrests-doomsday-prepper-martin-winters/2184898 http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/fbi-arrests-...
  - Houshalter 12y ago
    The informants claims turned out to be completely wrong. >But the claims and allegations may have been blown way out of proportion. After police obtained a warrant to search Winters’ home based on information obtained from a confidential informant they were probably surprised that not only did Winters have no explosive booby troops set up all over his property as had been claimed, he was also far short of having possession of the fifty high-powered rifles that police said he had been stockpiling. The police claimed he was crazy and plotting an elaborate confrontation with police, but there was no confrontation and the guy turned himself in peacefully. They are only charging him with building some unspecified "destructive device" without a permit, which he has plead not guilty.

nextstep 12y ago

If the Earth's magnetic field wasn't protecting the earth, even for a few minutes, tons of high energy particles from the sun would enter our atmosphere. That could be pretty shitty for life on Earth (even if it doesn't mass-extinct any species).

rdmcfee 12y ago
Experts don't think that will happen: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on_biosphere http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on...

Natsu 12y ago

The article said that it was previously expected in ~2000 years, then mentioned that the rate is about 10x faster. Assuming (quite possibly erroneously) that the relationship is linear and both of these factoids are accurate, that puts the change on the order of ~200 years. So it doesn't seem likely that most of us will live to see it. That said, I understood it to be a gradual process and I thought there was a time of little to no magnetic field while it's shifting, which might be disconcerting. Hopefully it's just a matter of securing power lines and hardening satellites, but I'm not sure whether anyone has studied this in much depth.

troymc 12y ago

The author didn't cite any sources but I suspect they were alluding to the fact that we know (roughly) when the field reversals happened in the recent past, and we also know when the mass extinctions were, and one can then see that the field reversals don't tend to cause mass extinctions. I guess the main reason is that the Earth's atmosphere also provides a lot of radiation protection, regardless of what the magnetic field is doing.

gone35 12y ago

The concern is that the Earth's magnetic field (likely) weakens around 10% or so during transitions, which leads to an increase in ionizing radiation reaching the surface. This leads to two different risks: - Biospheric effects, due to increased rates of DNA damage; and - Infrastructure effects, due to increased radiation damage to satellites, or damages to power grids due to large induced currents from geomagnetic storms. Infrastructure effects are well understood: higher risk of power or communications outages. You can mitigate that risk by stockpiling water (which is a good thing to do anyway), buying a diesel generator, etc. On the other hand, biospheric effects are less well understood. There is some statistical evidence of some species going extinct right around pole reversals, and several plausible mechanisms have been proposed, but the evidence is by no means conclusive, due in part to intrinsic limits in the fossil record. Note however that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, so biospheric effects cannot be entirely discarded. But it is also unclear what steps could anyone take to mitigate such uncertain but potentially fat-tailed risks, so it is your call.

kamaal 12y ago
We also need to take into account cascading effects on a particular event. Lets say, for example global electricity is reduced to 30% of its current supply by radiation damage. I won't say the entire human species may go extinct, but for sure a lot of people will die. Literally nothing works without electricity today, starting from food production, to distribution, to cooking, to supply of water to literally every aspect of our life. I bet that number will be really high. Like more than 50% of the humans. I guess what you see then is struggle for the control of resources. A certain powerful groups will control the supply of resources and hence will dictate how every thing will play out from there on.
- Cthulhu_ 12y ago
  That is a possible scenario, but one that is only feasible if it were to suddenly happen; by the looks of it though, these effects will not be sudden, and will not be global; it's likely power outages will be slightly more common, but at the same time people can mitigate the effects by adding redundancy or shielding or however it works. So while the earth may be more susceptible to solar flares, it won't be as dramatic as your scenario (or that of doomsday preppers) states.