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Earth's Magnetic Field Flip Could Happen Sooner Than Expected
- dm2 12y ago"Still, there is no evidence that a weakened magnetic field would result in a doomsday for Earth."... "Researchers think power grids and communication systems would be most at risk." Somebody give it to me strait, do I need to build a doomsday bunker ASAP and start stockpiling supplies?
- geetee 12y agoDepends on the article you read :) This one sounds much scarier: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2014/06/10/earths-magnetic-flips-may-triggered-mass-extinctions/#.U8WdIvnHsbY http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2014/06/10/earths-... I wonder how it will affect animals that migrate...
- dm2 12y agoIt sounds like a relatively gradual process, animals might be able to adapt quickly, they've done it before.
- pbhjpbhj 12y agoGradual how? If there's no overall magnetic moment then surely navigation on magnetic field sensing organs will simply fail, if it switches/moves - even gradually - and stays the same strength then the animal likely ends up in entirely the wrong place with the wrong foodstuffs and climate. Can't see that either of those "gradual processes" is going to work well. Certainly the magnetic field has flipped before but do we know that animals that use magnetism for migratory guidance were able to "adapt quickly". Can you walk us through the evidence?
- jdmichal 12y agoYou're assuming that this is the only method of navigation they have, instead of it being one tool within their navigation tool belt. Also, I'm sure magnetic sensory organs have some natural error to them that they are constantly re-calibrating for. If the reversal happens within the bounds of natural error and recalibration, then I suspect they would have little trouble adapting.
- thret 12y agoCorrect, animals such as homing pigeons primarily rely on sight and landmarks. There are no known animals that exclusively use magnetic fields to navigate.
- dm2 12y agoThe Monarch Butterfly uses it when the sun isn't available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly#Migratory_Theory_Mechanisms http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly#Migratory_The... Apparently it "sees" the magnetic fields, but it also relies on the sun. I don't think it's been studied if it can reorient itself at birth if the poles are switched or if it's "hardcoded".
- adrianN 12y agoThere are some bacteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetotactic_bacteria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetotactic_bacteria
- thret 12y agoThis is a good point, although I submit that the magnetic direction is irrelevant for their purpose.
- pbhjpbhj 12y agoI wonder how they manage when flying at night. Do those birds that are more capable night-flyers have superior magnetic senses?
- bellerocky 12y ago> do I need to build a doomsday bunker ASAP No. The cost of building and maintaining a bunker is higher than any chance of ever realizing a benefit. This is true for any doomsday type scenario but if you live in a place with dangerously high winds or tornadoes a cellar might be a good place to weather a storm. > stockpiling supplies? Yes, you should always stockpile food and water in case of emergency [1] [1] http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/foodwater/prepare.asp http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/foodwater/prepare.asp
- higherpurpose 12y agoDo they still have that ridiculous law that makes you a potential terrorist for stockpiling more than 7 day's worth of food? http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/10-ridiculous-things-that-make-you.html http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/10-ridiculous-things-tha... Apparently something like that just happened last month: http://www.dcclothesline.com/2014/06/23/fbi-raids-home-dangerous-doomsday-prepper-agents-find-legally-owned-firearms-barrels-food/ http://www.dcclothesline.com/2014/06/23/fbi-raids-home-dange...
- Houshalter 12y agoAs far as I can tell it's not a law, just something that could make you suspicious. Which is still ridiculous but not a crime.
- bellerocky 12y ago> Apparently something like that just happened last month. That guy was making booby traps and telling an undercover FBI agent that he is going to kill federal agents. http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/fbi-arrests-doomsday-prepper-martin-winters/2184898 http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/fbi-arrests-...
- Houshalter 12y agoThe informants claims turned out to be completely wrong. >But the claims and allegations may have been blown way out of proportion. After police obtained a warrant to search Winters’ home based on information obtained from a confidential informant they were probably surprised that not only did Winters have no explosive booby troops set up all over his property as had been claimed, he was also far short of having possession of the fifty high-powered rifles that police said he had been stockpiling. The police claimed he was crazy and plotting an elaborate confrontation with police, but there was no confrontation and the guy turned himself in peacefully. They are only charging him with building some unspecified "destructive device" without a permit, which he has plead not guilty.
- nextstep 12y agoIf the Earth's magnetic field wasn't protecting the earth, even for a few minutes, tons of high energy particles from the sun would enter our atmosphere. That could be pretty shitty for life on Earth (even if it doesn't mass-extinct any species).
- rdmcfee 12y agoExperts don't think that will happen: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on_biosphere http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on...
- Natsu 12y agoThe article said that it was previously expected in ~2000 years, then mentioned that the rate is about 10x faster. Assuming (quite possibly erroneously) that the relationship is linear and both of these factoids are accurate, that puts the change on the order of ~200 years. So it doesn't seem likely that most of us will live to see it. That said, I understood it to be a gradual process and I thought there was a time of little to no magnetic field while it's shifting, which might be disconcerting. Hopefully it's just a matter of securing power lines and hardening satellites, but I'm not sure whether anyone has studied this in much depth.
- troymc 12y agoThe author didn't cite any sources but I suspect they were alluding to the fact that we know (roughly) when the field reversals happened in the recent past, and we also know when the mass extinctions were, and one can then see that the field reversals don't tend to cause mass extinctions. I guess the main reason is that the Earth's atmosphere also provides a lot of radiation protection, regardless of what the magnetic field is doing.
- gone35 12y agoThe concern is that the Earth's magnetic field (likely) weakens around 10% or so during transitions, which leads to an increase in ionizing radiation reaching the surface. This leads to two different risks: - Biospheric effects, due to increased rates of DNA damage; and - Infrastructure effects, due to increased radiation damage to satellites, or damages to power grids due to large induced currents from geomagnetic storms. Infrastructure effects are well understood: higher risk of power or communications outages. You can mitigate that risk by stockpiling water (which is a good thing to do anyway), buying a diesel generator, etc. On the other hand, biospheric effects are less well understood. There is some statistical evidence of some species going extinct right around pole reversals, and several plausible mechanisms have been proposed, but the evidence is by no means conclusive, due in part to intrinsic limits in the fossil record. Note however that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, so biospheric effects cannot be entirely discarded. But it is also unclear what steps could anyone take to mitigate such uncertain but potentially fat-tailed risks, so it is your call.
- kamaal 12y agoWe also need to take into account cascading effects on a particular event. Lets say, for example global electricity is reduced to 30% of its current supply by radiation damage. I won't say the entire human species may go extinct, but for sure a lot of people will die. Literally nothing works without electricity today, starting from food production, to distribution, to cooking, to supply of water to literally every aspect of our life. I bet that number will be really high. Like more than 50% of the humans. I guess what you see then is struggle for the control of resources. A certain powerful groups will control the supply of resources and hence will dictate how every thing will play out from there on.
- Cthulhu_ 12y agoThat is a possible scenario, but one that is only feasible if it were to suddenly happen; by the looks of it though, these effects will not be sudden, and will not be global; it's likely power outages will be slightly more common, but at the same time people can mitigate the effects by adding redundancy or shielding or however it works. So while the earth may be more susceptible to solar flares, it won't be as dramatic as your scenario (or that of doomsday preppers) states.
- jmount 12y agoOne flaw that bugs me in the article: "the dangerous cosmic radiation spewing from the sun in the form of solar winds." From the Wikipedia: "Cosmic rays are immensely high-energy radiation, mainly originating outside the Solar System." It might not be strictly wrong (as language leaves open that some cosmic rays may come from our sun; and the Wikipedia solar wind article has "The solar wind affects the other incoming cosmic rays interacting with the atmosphere of planets."). But cosmic radiation is most famous for being very high energy (cosmic scale) and of exotic origin. A small pedantic point, but lack of distinction makes me think of this http://explosm.net/comics/3557/ http://explosm.net/comics/3557/ . Edit: I know cosmic rays are not typically em-radiation. The name rays (which usually denotes em-radition) is a historic accident. Hence "cosmic rays" and "cosmic radiation" are fairly close terms. And yes our sun produces tons of rays and radiation- but not typically at the "cosmic" energy scales. I don't mind getting down-voted for being overly pedantic (and perhaps worse yet trying to be pedantic, while being possibly wrong- this isn't my field). But some of the follow-ups really look like they are missing the same type of distinction in the exact manner I was originally complaining about (which is why there is some small value in trying point this out).
- th0br0 12y agoWhy is this a flaw? Solar flares are a form of cosmic radiation; they're not the only source for it of course, but, as far as I know, one of the (if not the) strongest ones.
- jmount 12y agoI thought solar flares interacted in ways that suppressed cosmic rays (such as http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/07oct_afraid/ http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/07... ), not produced them. But it isn't my field, I could easily be the one who is wrong.
- chc 12y agoThe sun definitely produces radiation.
- dreamweapon 12y agoThe Preppers are going to really flip over this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prepper https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prepper
- ChuckMcM 12y agoThis is an interesting result. An old paper [1](1988) was my first exposure to asking the question about whether or not periodic pole reversals were tied to other cyclic phenomena such as volcanism, glacial periods, and mass extinctions. I observe that the magnetic field has a fairly material impact on the upper atmosphere, so it seems reasonable to include it in the models on climate change. [1] http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/30064982?uid=2&uid=4&sid=21104496247763 http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/30064982?uid=2&uid=4&s...
- sytelus 12y agoI thought Mars lost water and have thin atmosphere because of loss of its magnetic field. Mars owes its dry and dusty appearance to its wispy atmosphere, less than 1 percent of the thickness of the Earth's. But it wasn't always that way: The Red Planet formerly had a much thicker atmosphere that probably allowed for liquid water on the surface, an atmosphere that was depleted when the planet's magnetic field faded away. http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/space/moon-mars/what-happened-to-mars-atmosphere-15277534 http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/space/moon-mars/what...
- unlikelymordant 12y agoWe are not losing it, it is changing polarity ("flipping"). It may be reduced for a short time while the flip happens. It has happened many times before.
- Audrey_II 12y agoTLDR: Were boned. Polarity shift will unleash the water volcano, cleansing the earth of its impurities. Good luck everyone!
- outrightfree 12y agoVery minor nitpicky grammar point: "... the Swarm satellites — three separate satellites floating in tandem." Can three things operate in tandem?
- lotsofcows 12y agoNo. Tandem also implies one behind the other which, even in the context of an orbit, doesn't make much sense.
- heroku 12y agodoes this mean earth is going to rotate backwards, just like it says in the holy bible?
- TeMPOraL 12y agoThere is no such thing written anywhere in the Bible.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- stephencanon 12y ago"Behold, I will bring again the shadow of the degrees, which is gone down in the sun dial of Ahaz, ten degrees backward. So the sun returned ten degrees, by which degrees it was gone down.” (Isaiah 38:8)
- TeMPOraL 12y agoI completely forgot about that passage. However it was only God playing astronomy tricks to make a particular point; I don't recall any case where there is written that the Earth is supposed to start rotating backwards in the future (or the Sun going in the other direction, etc.)
- theandrewbailey 12y agoNot sure what bible you're reading. The earth has always rotated "forwards". In the bible, the closest thing I can think of is this passage from Joshua 10: "So the sun stood still in the midst of heaven, and hasted not to go down about a whole day."
- TeMPOraL 12y agoThere's this and the one stephencanon quoted downthread; both of them were described as divine acts serving particular purpose at the moment. I don't recall any similar prophecy for the future. And I used to be quite a Bible nut ;).
- mangeletti 12y agoAs a short-term solution, I propose iron credits. I'll launch the yellow revolution, whereupon concerned citizens will send our non-profit organization of care some money. I will use this money to plant fields of corn, which will be used to produce bioplastic, which will in turn replace the use of iron (the ferrous metal that started all of this mayhem in the first place) world-wide. The long-term solution is to place a tax on iron. This price chart (https://bitly.com/Wa4lD3 https://bitly.com/Wa4lD3) illustrates an increase in demand for iron. A simple 41.3% tax on iron and iron-based products and on the income of all global citizens and companies that use at least 1 product that contains iron or is made by a company that used something containing iron to produce it will promote responsible and sustainable manufacturing practices. If we don't act now, it'll be too late. Polarity shift levels have risen over 3 inches in the past year alone, and our independent and intelligent panel of scientists estimates that a shift of more than 6 inches over the next 100 years will set us back to the stone age.