7 ms·

Dropbox Buys E-Commerce A/B Testing Service Predictive Edge, Shuts It Down

77 points by doppp 12y ago

raverbashing 12y ago
Ah yes, this acquisition seems to be buzzword compliant "Dynamic Pricing" using "Machine Learning" in "Cloud computing" That, or they found a correspondence between a detail in their offering/capabilities that matches what Dropbox wants to do.
- sheetjs 12y ago
  I believe the technical term is "Talent Acquisition"
- d357r0y3r 12y ago
  They're going to leverage that synergy, empowering key corporate values to enable a full service solution. A true game changer.
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
  - w1ntermute 12y ago
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsr-QfgFRh8#t=50 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsr-QfgFRh8#t=50
ama729 12y ago
From Predictive Edge website: Many thanks to you all for your feedback & support, and here's to a new chapter! From Our Incredible Journey (http://ourincrediblejourney.tumblr.com/ http://ourincrediblejourney.tumblr.com/): An incredible journey is: One company buying another and closing its services down. This is a purchase of the second company’s staff, rather than their product. An acquihire. If you look through the archives this is what all the incredible journeys have in common. A company gets bought, its staff are excited (publicly, anyway) about their new home, but sorry that the service which brought them to the attention of their new bosses will have to be closed. “But thanks for joining us on our incredible journey!” This is what is galling. A company that can afford to pay millions for some new staff but not for what those staff built. The people who used the service, and invested their belief and time in uploading photos, or forming friendships, or logging data, are left to find new virtual homes while their former hosts enjoy a nice (if possibly delayed) payday. This repeated pattern only encourages more people to create flashy services that have no hope of being sustainable businesses in their own right, but may survive long enough, with VC funding, to attract the attention of a large company eager for new ideas and staff. It’s one thing for companies to go bust, or to close their service after failing to make it work. This is business. It’s capitalism. But starting services only to close them a couple of years later when payday arrives is a vicious way to treat people.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- tptacek 12y ago
  I'm always confused by this mentality people have that teams aren't entitled to disband, or at least they're not entitled to do it for money. Who at this point can claim not to know how startups work? Who's getting the rug pulled out from under them? It's a job. It's not a moral crusade. Are you worried that some service you use and adore might get snatched up by Dropbox? Here's a good rule of thumb: if they're blowing the doors off the market, they're probably not going anywhere. If not: they're eventually going to get picked off by a bigger team that can make more money from the talent.
  - sheetjs 12y ago
    > The people who used the service, and invested their belief and time in uploading photos, or forming friendships, or logging data, are left to find new virtual homes while their former hosts enjoy a nice (if possibly delayed) payday. In a startup acquisition that would garner the approval of the author of the blog (and many others), the founders would, at the very least, find a way to slowly unwind the service. It wouldn't be an abrupt shutdown, leaving customers in the lurch. IT would be carefully planned. At the very least, the founders should care enough about their users to make sure the service runs for a reasonable amount of time.
    - tptacek 12y ago
      Patrick killed my answer; he's nailed it: If you're complaining that someone acquhired your favorite service, you were being heavily subsidized by a venture capitalist.
      - birken 12y ago
        Or they were subsidizing the service with their talent that could have been more productively used elsewhere. People who don't understand this just don't understand business. Even great HN heroes like Elon Musk (who sold paypal to ebay) aren't doing stuff for charity, they are doing it for profit. Sometimes a personal crusade makes straight monetary profit less important, but most of the time it doesn't.
s4sharpie 12y ago
The greatest challenge will be to see how Dropbox is able to integrate so many teams/developers successfully over time. It will be interesting to revisit this post in a year from now and see how many Predictive Edge (or their other acquisitions) former employees are still with Dropbox. AcquiHire is becoming a real trend in the market. I think the key drivers are a lack of available talent willing to change companies and misaligned remuneration. The lack of talent is a common thread. Misaligned remuneration is something more interesting and likely to affect existing devs and companies more and more. If you are in that high echelon of dev talent, you can find someone willing to offer a good salary and the promise of x% of potentially something large in the future. Or now, you can launch your own company, throw out a flashy project to demonstrate your skills, and by acquired by a Dropbox (or it's ilk). This way, you will likely get the same salary, the same promise, but a significant signing bonus upfront. How companies are going to react to this trend will be interesting. Will signing bonuses and ongoing bonuses make a significant return?
- sudont 12y ago
  Hmm, is there historical data of this sort for many companies? Sounds like it could make an interesting survival analysis project.
danbucholtz 12y ago
Alright Dropbox, time to pony up and buy my startup, www.gopaperbox :-D
startupdeep 12y ago
One more Talent Acquisition story!!.
stuaxo 12y ago
Isn't this an expensive way to hire a team ?
- bitJericho 12y ago
  Maybe it's the only way to guarantee having a rockstar team for the next 5 years or whatever they all agree to.

77 points by doppp 12y ago

Ah yes, this acquisition seems to be buzzword compliant "Dynamic Pricing" using "Machine Learning" in "Cloud computing" That, or they found a correspondence between a detail in their offering/capabilities that matches what Dropbox wants to do.

sheetjs 12y ago
I believe the technical term is "Talent Acquisition"
d357r0y3r 12y ago
They're going to leverage that synergy, empowering key corporate values to enable a full service solution. A true game changer.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- w1ntermute 12y ago
  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsr-QfgFRh8#t=50 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsr-QfgFRh8#t=50

ama729 12y ago

From Predictive Edge website: Many thanks to you all for your feedback & support, and here's to a new chapter! From Our Incredible Journey (http://ourincrediblejourney.tumblr.com/ http://ourincrediblejourney.tumblr.com/): An incredible journey is: One company buying another and closing its services down. This is a purchase of the second company’s staff, rather than their product. An acquihire. If you look through the archives this is what all the incredible journeys have in common. A company gets bought, its staff are excited (publicly, anyway) about their new home, but sorry that the service which brought them to the attention of their new bosses will have to be closed. “But thanks for joining us on our incredible journey!” This is what is galling. A company that can afford to pay millions for some new staff but not for what those staff built. The people who used the service, and invested their belief and time in uploading photos, or forming friendships, or logging data, are left to find new virtual homes while their former hosts enjoy a nice (if possibly delayed) payday. This repeated pattern only encourages more people to create flashy services that have no hope of being sustainable businesses in their own right, but may survive long enough, with VC funding, to attract the attention of a large company eager for new ideas and staff. It’s one thing for companies to go bust, or to close their service after failing to make it work. This is business. It’s capitalism. But starting services only to close them a couple of years later when payday arrives is a vicious way to treat people.

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
tptacek 12y ago
I'm always confused by this mentality people have that teams aren't entitled to disband, or at least they're not entitled to do it for money. Who at this point can claim not to know how startups work? Who's getting the rug pulled out from under them? It's a job. It's not a moral crusade. Are you worried that some service you use and adore might get snatched up by Dropbox? Here's a good rule of thumb: if they're blowing the doors off the market, they're probably not going anywhere. If not: they're eventually going to get picked off by a bigger team that can make more money from the talent.
- sheetjs 12y ago
  > The people who used the service, and invested their belief and time in uploading photos, or forming friendships, or logging data, are left to find new virtual homes while their former hosts enjoy a nice (if possibly delayed) payday. In a startup acquisition that would garner the approval of the author of the blog (and many others), the founders would, at the very least, find a way to slowly unwind the service. It wouldn't be an abrupt shutdown, leaving customers in the lurch. IT would be carefully planned. At the very least, the founders should care enough about their users to make sure the service runs for a reasonable amount of time.
  - tptacek 12y ago
    Patrick killed my answer; he's nailed it: If you're complaining that someone acquhired your favorite service, you were being heavily subsidized by a venture capitalist.
    - birken 12y ago
      Or they were subsidizing the service with their talent that could have been more productively used elsewhere. People who don't understand this just don't understand business. Even great HN heroes like Elon Musk (who sold paypal to ebay) aren't doing stuff for charity, they are doing it for profit. Sometimes a personal crusade makes straight monetary profit less important, but most of the time it doesn't.

s4sharpie 12y ago

The greatest challenge will be to see how Dropbox is able to integrate so many teams/developers successfully over time. It will be interesting to revisit this post in a year from now and see how many Predictive Edge (or their other acquisitions) former employees are still with Dropbox. AcquiHire is becoming a real trend in the market. I think the key drivers are a lack of available talent willing to change companies and misaligned remuneration. The lack of talent is a common thread. Misaligned remuneration is something more interesting and likely to affect existing devs and companies more and more. If you are in that high echelon of dev talent, you can find someone willing to offer a good salary and the promise of x% of potentially something large in the future. Or now, you can launch your own company, throw out a flashy project to demonstrate your skills, and by acquired by a Dropbox (or it's ilk). This way, you will likely get the same salary, the same promise, but a significant signing bonus upfront. How companies are going to react to this trend will be interesting. Will signing bonuses and ongoing bonuses make a significant return?

sudont 12y ago
Hmm, is there historical data of this sort for many companies? Sounds like it could make an interesting survival analysis project.

danbucholtz 12y ago

Alright Dropbox, time to pony up and buy my startup, www.gopaperbox :-D

startupdeep 12y ago

One more Talent Acquisition story!!.

stuaxo 12y ago

Isn't this an expensive way to hire a team ?

bitJericho 12y ago
Maybe it's the only way to guarantee having a rockstar team for the next 5 years or whatever they all agree to.