Great submission. Pretty relevant to Hacker News, since writers and startups work in the similar high odds environment (like NNT's "Extremistan"). Circumstance,

Great submission. Pretty relevant to Hacker News, since writers and startups work in the similar high odds environment (like NNT's "Extremistan"). Circumstance, timing and luck have at least as much influence on the ultimate result as merit. (Though, unlike writers, startups can have investors financing their attempts. Some writers have it in the form of advance payment. I wonder if there's a YC model for authors..) As for "A Web server and worth-of-mouth is all that you need to reach an audience of 50 million", I think this is telling of the time this was written, in 1996. Seems to me we've since discovered that reaching a large audience online requires similar amounts of luck or self promotion as it did pre-Web, perhaps with cheaper costs. (BTW, I always thought this doers vs credit takers is the main underlying theme of The Wire. The conflict between the McNultys and Rawls's of this world.)