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This reminds me of a study focusing on soccer games. It analyzed A) how often players shot goals toward the left, middle and right sides of the net; and B) how

This reminds me of a study focusing on soccer games. It analyzed A) how often players shot goals toward the left, middle and right sides of the net; and B) how often goalies responded by jumping toward the left, middle and right sides. The stats revealed a surprising phenomenon. Though opposing players shot toward each area of the goal evenly — about 33% of the time — goalies jumped toward the left or the right 80-90% of the time. So what explains the irrational behavior of these highly skilled goalies? The researcher who presented this to me and others at a conference argued that it came down to the appearance of productivity. If a goalie leaps left or right and fails to stop the goal, he can claim that he tried his best. But if a goalie remains in the center, even if doing so is the most effective option, he risks looking like he did nothing. I call this "productivity theater." In other words, there's sometimes a disconnect between what it means to be an effective worker and what it means to appear effective. To offer just one example from the workplace: in some offices, the culture dictates that employees must stay from 8 to 6 each day. Their schedules may make them look like hard workers, but some are probably checking Facebook or email much of the day. Contrast this with offices that emphasize owning and completing projects rather than working an amount of time. With the second policy, you're likely to find some workers who appear less busy but make more meaningful contributions.

jacques_chester 12y ago
DeMarco and Lister called it "undertime".
- sitkack 12y ago
  Is that my version of "homing from work" ?
TylerJay 12y ago
As a counterpoint, I remember being taught in a Game Theory course that both the shooters and the goalies acted in accordance with the Nash Equilibrium which (IIRC) happens to be equal amounts to each option. You would think that if such a vulnerability actually existed, coaches and analysts would have figured it out and it would be exploited.
- autodidakto 12y ago
  Thanks. I hope someone could look up a discussion on this soccer goalie example: I never really understood it. Is the example above saying goalies would do the "more productive" thing of standing still more often if they didn't feel the pressure to look like they were doing something? If kickers evenly spread out their shots, you got a 1/3 chance no matter what you do. It wouldn't matter if the goalie went always left or always right or just stood there every time. And if goalies are being irrational, why aren't kickers exploiting it? Though I agree that you shouldn't be penalized for standing still, that doesn't make jumping right or left "fake work".
  - seanos 12y ago
    "And if goalies are being irrational, why aren't kickers exploiting it?" Two reasons I can think of. First, if you shoot to the left or right (particularly top or bottom corner of goal) then the goalkeeper has further to travel to reach the ball, therefore if it is done with sufficient accuracy and power it is harder, or even impossible, to save even if the goalkeeper guesses correctly. In contrast, a central shot, even if hit with high power is often easy to save if the goalkeeper keeps central. Therefore, shooting left or right more often than centrally can be a rational choice if the goalkeeper distributes evenly between going left, right and center - especially for high level players. Secondly, shooting centrally can look a bit silly if the goalkeeper guesses correctly, since it is usually an easy save, therefore it is seen as a bit of an arrogant, or show off, move. Therefore players may be reluctant to shoot centrally - this is somewhat related to the reasoning given for the goalkeepers in that the players want to be seen to be doing something.
001sky 12y ago
Conversely, there are offices where someone "not being present" can shut down the productivity of the entire firm. People are paid to "be available" as well as to do tasks. The importance of "availability" on "task performance" is not imaginary--witness how computatuional hardware shows performance variation based on cache architecture.
raverbashing 12y ago
Or: you have to jump if you want to reach a ball kicked on a goal corner So if you guess that the ball is going to one of the sides, jump If you don't jump you're defending 1/3 of shoots (Of course, soccer is more complicated than that - for instance not all shots are perfect, and some are made to trick the goalie especially in penalty shoots - but you get the idea)
eaurouge 12y ago
You're referring to penalty kicks. And I think the study you refer to is discussed here: http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-by-numbers.html http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-b.... That discussion gets a number of things wrong and trivializes the odds against the goalkeeper. Any goalie preparing for a match in the sudden death stages of a tournament, like the World Cup [1], would study previous kicks from the opposing players. The players also study goalkeepers past shootouts. So any pattern the goalkeeper chooses to adopt influences the direction of future kicks by opposing players, and vice versa. In other words, if I know that the opposing goalie stays in the center, as a rule, 30% of the time (heck even 10%), there's no way I'm going to shoot down the middle. I'm going to go for the right or left corner to increase my odds. Going down the middle actually requires more skill than the linked article credits it with. As a player, you'll have to disguise the direction and you'll want to aim for the upper half (if it's too low, the goalie can save with the feet), meaning you could miss and hit the bar or worse, row Z. The reason goalies don't just stay in the center is that it's more likely that the opposing player would aim for the bottom left/right corners. And if a goalkeeper spent more time in the center, he/she increases the odds further that shots against that particular goalie would go to the bottom left/right corners. I think the reason most penalty kicks go to the bottom left corner (left from the player's perspective) is that most players are right-footed and they can strike the ball with more force to their left than (with the open foot) to their right. With enough speed and accuracy, a shot to the bottom corner (just sneaking by the post) will beat the goalie even if the goalie dives in the right direction. A shot to the upper corner will always beat the goalie; just can't get there in time. But shots to the upper half of the goal are tough, especially when you consider that the player is very likely suffering from nerves at the time. 1. 32 days, 8 hours and 45 minutes from now, yay!!
- hawkharris 12y ago
  Thanks for reviewing the study and offering your take on goalies' behavior. As someone who knows very little about soccer, I was mainly interested in how it might serve as a metaphor for productivity in the workplace. But it was interesting to learn more about the context for the study as well as how goalies and other players anticipatw moves.

jacques_chester 12y ago

DeMarco and Lister called it "undertime".

sitkack 12y ago
Is that my version of "homing from work" ?

TylerJay 12y ago

As a counterpoint, I remember being taught in a Game Theory course that both the shooters and the goalies acted in accordance with the Nash Equilibrium which (IIRC) happens to be equal amounts to each option. You would think that if such a vulnerability actually existed, coaches and analysts would have figured it out and it would be exploited.

autodidakto 12y ago
Thanks. I hope someone could look up a discussion on this soccer goalie example: I never really understood it. Is the example above saying goalies would do the "more productive" thing of standing still more often if they didn't feel the pressure to look like they were doing something? If kickers evenly spread out their shots, you got a 1/3 chance no matter what you do. It wouldn't matter if the goalie went always left or always right or just stood there every time. And if goalies are being irrational, why aren't kickers exploiting it? Though I agree that you shouldn't be penalized for standing still, that doesn't make jumping right or left "fake work".
- seanos 12y ago
  "And if goalies are being irrational, why aren't kickers exploiting it?" Two reasons I can think of. First, if you shoot to the left or right (particularly top or bottom corner of goal) then the goalkeeper has further to travel to reach the ball, therefore if it is done with sufficient accuracy and power it is harder, or even impossible, to save even if the goalkeeper guesses correctly. In contrast, a central shot, even if hit with high power is often easy to save if the goalkeeper keeps central. Therefore, shooting left or right more often than centrally can be a rational choice if the goalkeeper distributes evenly between going left, right and center - especially for high level players. Secondly, shooting centrally can look a bit silly if the goalkeeper guesses correctly, since it is usually an easy save, therefore it is seen as a bit of an arrogant, or show off, move. Therefore players may be reluctant to shoot centrally - this is somewhat related to the reasoning given for the goalkeepers in that the players want to be seen to be doing something.

001sky 12y ago

Conversely, there are offices where someone "not being present" can shut down the productivity of the entire firm. People are paid to "be available" as well as to do tasks. The importance of "availability" on "task performance" is not imaginary--witness how computatuional hardware shows performance variation based on cache architecture.

raverbashing 12y ago

Or: you have to jump if you want to reach a ball kicked on a goal corner So if you guess that the ball is going to one of the sides, jump If you don't jump you're defending 1/3 of shoots (Of course, soccer is more complicated than that - for instance not all shots are perfect, and some are made to trick the goalie especially in penalty shoots - but you get the idea)

eaurouge 12y ago

You're referring to penalty kicks. And I think the study you refer to is discussed here: http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-by-numbers.html http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-b.... That discussion gets a number of things wrong and trivializes the odds against the goalkeeper. Any goalie preparing for a match in the sudden death stages of a tournament, like the World Cup [1], would study previous kicks from the opposing players. The players also study goalkeepers past shootouts. So any pattern the goalkeeper chooses to adopt influences the direction of future kicks by opposing players, and vice versa. In other words, if I know that the opposing goalie stays in the center, as a rule, 30% of the time (heck even 10%), there's no way I'm going to shoot down the middle. I'm going to go for the right or left corner to increase my odds. Going down the middle actually requires more skill than the linked article credits it with. As a player, you'll have to disguise the direction and you'll want to aim for the upper half (if it's too low, the goalie can save with the feet), meaning you could miss and hit the bar or worse, row Z. The reason goalies don't just stay in the center is that it's more likely that the opposing player would aim for the bottom left/right corners. And if a goalkeeper spent more time in the center, he/she increases the odds further that shots against that particular goalie would go to the bottom left/right corners. I think the reason most penalty kicks go to the bottom left corner (left from the player's perspective) is that most players are right-footed and they can strike the ball with more force to their left than (with the open foot) to their right. With enough speed and accuracy, a shot to the bottom corner (just sneaking by the post) will beat the goalie even if the goalie dives in the right direction. A shot to the upper corner will always beat the goalie; just can't get there in time. But shots to the upper half of the goal are tough, especially when you consider that the player is very likely suffering from nerves at the time. 1. 32 days, 8 hours and 45 minutes from now, yay!!

hawkharris 12y ago
Thanks for reviewing the study and offering your take on goalies' behavior. As someone who knows very little about soccer, I was mainly interested in how it might serve as a metaphor for productivity in the workplace. But it was interesting to learn more about the context for the study as well as how goalies and other players anticipatw moves.