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China's birth rate is above a huge number of countries, including Holland, Switzerland, Germany and Canada. It's a problem, yes, but let's not overstate it.

by josai 12y ago

seanmcdirmid 12y ago
People are still getting richer, so birth rates will continue to fall. Besides, it is important to look at where the births happen; i.e. not in the cities, but in the country side.
roel_v 12y ago
China: 1.58 / woman, Netherlands: 1.76, Switzerland: 1.52, Germany: 1.36, Canada: 1.63. So yes all of them below replacement rate, but then again, they all have vastly different demographic and economic profiles from China - most notably in savings per person and reserved money for pensions, of which there is basically none in China. Well unless you count 'current market valuations' for all that empty real estate, that is smirks A country can afford, or at least isn't hurt that badly by, low birth rates when those who are born don't have to support (or at least not fully) the elderly - I don't think it's reasonable to put China on one line with the other countries you mention.
- throwawayaway 12y ago
  Thanks for your statistics. I'd rather people didn't smirk when they are predicting other people's misfortune. Not everyone has the benefit of your foresight or hindsight.
  - roel_v 12y ago
    ? I'm not smirking at other people's misfortune, just at the idiocy of an economic system engineered to shackle the people that have to live their lives under it to workarounds like this ('this' = use assets that could otherwise be used economically productive as stores of wealth), and at the arrogance of claiming a centrally-led economy can provide both prosperity and freedom - two things I find axiomatically fundamental human rights.
    - throwawayaway 12y ago
      The idiocy economic system being discussed, if it transpires as you predict, is going to lead to some people literally losing their shirt. They stood to gain and stood to lose, every time this happens many involved felt like they had no option but to play the game, it's not arrogance in doing so. It's like smirking at the gambling industry, except with very respectable and influential people pushing it.

China's birth rate is above a huge number of countries, including Holland, Switzerland, Germany and Canada. It's a problem, yes, but let's not overstate it.

by josai 12y ago

China's birth rate is above a huge number of countries, including Holland, Switzerland, Germany and Canada. It's a problem, yes, but let's not overstate it.

seanmcdirmid 12y ago

People are still getting richer, so birth rates will continue to fall. Besides, it is important to look at where the births happen; i.e. not in the cities, but in the country side.

roel_v 12y ago

China: 1.58 / woman, Netherlands: 1.76, Switzerland: 1.52, Germany: 1.36, Canada: 1.63. So yes all of them below replacement rate, but then again, they all have vastly different demographic and economic profiles from China - most notably in savings per person and reserved money for pensions, of which there is basically none in China. Well unless you count 'current market valuations' for all that empty real estate, that is smirks A country can afford, or at least isn't hurt that badly by, low birth rates when those who are born don't have to support (or at least not fully) the elderly - I don't think it's reasonable to put China on one line with the other countries you mention.

throwawayaway 12y ago
Thanks for your statistics. I'd rather people didn't smirk when they are predicting other people's misfortune. Not everyone has the benefit of your foresight or hindsight.
- roel_v 12y ago
  ? I'm not smirking at other people's misfortune, just at the idiocy of an economic system engineered to shackle the people that have to live their lives under it to workarounds like this ('this' = use assets that could otherwise be used economically productive as stores of wealth), and at the arrogance of claiming a centrally-led economy can provide both prosperity and freedom - two things I find axiomatically fundamental human rights.
  - throwawayaway 12y ago
    The idiocy economic system being discussed, if it transpires as you predict, is going to lead to some people literally losing their shirt. They stood to gain and stood to lose, every time this happens many involved felt like they had no option but to play the game, it's not arrogance in doing so. It's like smirking at the gambling industry, except with very respectable and influential people pushing it.