5 ms·

What is the anticipated price/TB curve of SSD over the next five years? at what point would most consumer storage switch from HDD to SSD? If we start with a HD

by mkempe 13y ago

What is the anticipated price/TB curve of SSD over the next five years? at what point would most consumer storage switch from HDD to SSD? If we start with a HDD/SSD price ratio of 1:7 (based on a quick check with Amazon) and hope for SSDs to get cheaper/TB by 50% each coming 18 months (?) we'd have a strong incentive to switch by year 2019.

adventured 13y ago
I think we're pretty close to the mainstream switching now. Inexpensive, large external HDDs will fill the gap on media storage for consumers long after the main drive has been switched to SSD for speed. Consumers aren't going to wait for SSD to catch up to 5tb HDD externals that you'll be able to get for $129. They'll simply buy a system with 512gb to 1tb of SSD storage, and pick up the external if they need it.
nardi 13y ago
That already happened. The biggest computer manufacturer (Apple) doesn't sell a machine without an SSD.
- redial 13y ago
  http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac I think you are being a little premature. All iMacs have hard drives by default.
  - wazoox 13y ago
    They are hybrid drives, though. The only pure HDD option seems to be the 3 TB drive.
    - redial 13y ago
      No, the default in every iMac is a 1TB Hard Drive. http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME086LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME086LL/A&ste... http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME087LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME087LL/A&ste... http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME088LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME088LL/A&ste... http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME089LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME089LL/A&ste...
      - wazoox 13y ago
        Weird, the product page seems to present the hybrid drive as the default option.
    - alexcroox 13y ago
      Definitely feeling the pain of the standard HDDs put in our 2013 27inch iMacs
- konstruktor 13y ago
  Interesting and eye-opening statement, but not entirely correct: The entry level iMac and Mac Mini SKUs have regular hard drives.
- mcintyre1994 13y ago
  Are Apple only the biggest if we include iPhones and/or iPads? I don't think anybody puts an HDD into a smartphone/tablet (it's surely all flash?) so it seems we'd have to limit the definition of computer to laptop/desktop to get anything interesting. Otherwise machines with an HDD are a minority already like you said.
  - nardi 13y ago
    Apple is the largest laptop/desktop manufacturer.
    - mcintyre1994 13y ago
      Do you have a source at all for that? I've found multiple articles saying Lenovo overtook HP for that title around July 2013 but nothing naming Apple. According to [0] Apple weren't in the top six at that point. I did find articles from early 2012 calling Apple the biggest but that was of course based on iPads almost entirely. For example [1] has some figures from then, 5.2 million macs to over 10 million units each from HP, Lenovo and Dell. [0] http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23637017/hewlett-packard-loses-crown-top-personal-computer-manufacturer http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23637017/hewlett-packard-loses... [1] http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/01/24/apple_now_largest_computer_maker_sold_more_ipads_alone_than_hp_sold_pcs http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/01/24/apple_now_largest_...
    - mikhailt 13y ago
      No, they're not. They're the most profitable, not the same as the biggest. HP/Lenovo have the top two spots, they're selling tens of millions per quarter. Apple barely breaks 5 million. Apple doesn't have great business nor governmental support, which eliminates them from being considered at thousands of companies.
      - nardi 13y ago
        You're right. I was thinking of profit. Sorry for posting misinformation.
      - 13y ago
- mikhailt 13y ago
  Apple is not the biggest manufacturer, it's the most profitable but it is not the biggest one by far. http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/01/09/apples-domestic-mac-sales-surge-285-as-overall-pc-market-shrinks-75 http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/01/09/apples-domestic-ma...
edward 13y ago
See my website that tracks price per TB of HDD and SSD: http://edwardbetts.com/price_per_tb/ http://edwardbetts.com/price_per_tb/
- mkempe 13y ago
  That's very nice. Are you keeping historical data? These would be interesting as diagrams.
  - edward 13y ago
    I have over two years of historical data. I'm going to make some charts.
- Carioca 13y ago
  You have laptop batteries in your SSD listings
  - edward 13y ago
    Thanks, newegg keep messing up the categories.

by mkempe 13y ago

adventured 13y ago

I think we're pretty close to the mainstream switching now. Inexpensive, large external HDDs will fill the gap on media storage for consumers long after the main drive has been switched to SSD for speed. Consumers aren't going to wait for SSD to catch up to 5tb HDD externals that you'll be able to get for $129. They'll simply buy a system with 512gb to 1tb of SSD storage, and pick up the external if they need it.

nardi 13y ago

That already happened. The biggest computer manufacturer (Apple) doesn't sell a machine without an SSD.

redial 13y ago
http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac I think you are being a little premature. All iMacs have hard drives by default.
- wazoox 13y ago
  They are hybrid drives, though. The only pure HDD option seems to be the 3 TB drive.
  - redial 13y ago
    No, the default in every iMac is a 1TB Hard Drive. http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME086LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME086LL/A&ste... http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME087LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME087LL/A&ste... http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME088LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME088LL/A&ste... http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME089LL/A&step=config http://store.apple.com/us/buy-mac/imac?product=ME089LL/A&ste...
    - wazoox 13y ago
      Weird, the product page seems to present the hybrid drive as the default option.
  - alexcroox 13y ago
    Definitely feeling the pain of the standard HDDs put in our 2013 27inch iMacs
konstruktor 13y ago
Interesting and eye-opening statement, but not entirely correct: The entry level iMac and Mac Mini SKUs have regular hard drives.
mcintyre1994 13y ago
Are Apple only the biggest if we include iPhones and/or iPads? I don't think anybody puts an HDD into a smartphone/tablet (it's surely all flash?) so it seems we'd have to limit the definition of computer to laptop/desktop to get anything interesting. Otherwise machines with an HDD are a minority already like you said.
- nardi 13y ago
  Apple is the largest laptop/desktop manufacturer.
  - mcintyre1994 13y ago
    Do you have a source at all for that? I've found multiple articles saying Lenovo overtook HP for that title around July 2013 but nothing naming Apple. According to [0] Apple weren't in the top six at that point. I did find articles from early 2012 calling Apple the biggest but that was of course based on iPads almost entirely. For example [1] has some figures from then, 5.2 million macs to over 10 million units each from HP, Lenovo and Dell. [0] http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23637017/hewlett-packard-loses-crown-top-personal-computer-manufacturer http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23637017/hewlett-packard-loses... [1] http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/01/24/apple_now_largest_computer_maker_sold_more_ipads_alone_than_hp_sold_pcs http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/01/24/apple_now_largest_...
  - mikhailt 13y ago
    No, they're not. They're the most profitable, not the same as the biggest. HP/Lenovo have the top two spots, they're selling tens of millions per quarter. Apple barely breaks 5 million. Apple doesn't have great business nor governmental support, which eliminates them from being considered at thousands of companies.
    - nardi 13y ago
      You're right. I was thinking of profit. Sorry for posting misinformation.
    - 13y ago
mikhailt 13y ago
Apple is not the biggest manufacturer, it's the most profitable but it is not the biggest one by far. http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/01/09/apples-domestic-mac-sales-surge-285-as-overall-pc-market-shrinks-75 http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/01/09/apples-domestic-ma...

edward 13y ago

See my website that tracks price per TB of HDD and SSD: http://edwardbetts.com/price_per_tb/ http://edwardbetts.com/price_per_tb/

mkempe 13y ago
That's very nice. Are you keeping historical data? These would be interesting as diagrams.
- edward 13y ago
  I have over two years of historical data. I'm going to make some charts.
Carioca 13y ago
You have laptop batteries in your SSD listings
- edward 13y ago
  Thanks, newegg keep messing up the categories.