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The PC will die when phones can do everything PCs can do. This will require both the ability to hook up larger screens and/or other larger form factor interface

by api 13y ago

The PC will die when phones can do everything PCs can do. This will require both the ability to hook up larger screens and/or other larger form factor interfaces (e.g. Oculus-type things) and serious evolution in the abilities and openness of mobile phone OSes. Feudalized devices that can only run a narrow subset of special-purpose "apps" cannot replace PCs for anyone who wants to do more than browse, photograph, play games, and e-mail. That might be some percentage of the population but it's not going to be everyone, probably not even a majority.

ekianjo 13y ago
The reason why I believe that PCs will never go completely extinct is that you need large computers for a number of specific applications. 3D rendering, Video editing are computing intensive. Gaming is extremely intensive and it will be even more so with the Occulus Rift and the like, and there's no way mobile devices will bring the same level of graphics as a 1000 dollar graphics card eating 500 Watts, unless there is some kind of technology breakthrough nobody knows about yet. Plugging your mobile phone into a larger screen will work fine for basic browsing and basic use, and that's certainly where Ubuntu wants to go (and they are not alone), but anything beyond that is not going to cut it.
- vidarh 13y ago
  They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches. My computer is in a huge tower case. In the mid 90's I could go into any computer store and pick one up. Today, finding even a full size ATX case on display is a rarity, and most of the PCs on sale local to me are in form factors closer to Mini-ITX, or are all-in-one PCs. Most people simply don't need enough computing power to need the big units any more - their needs may increase, but they're increasing at a slow enough pace that the size of computer they need keeps dropping. It may not "cut it" for anything beyond basic browsing and basic use today, but that's rapidly changing. My phone performance over the last 3 years have increased several times faster than my desktop and laptop performance (to a large extent because there's lots of "cheap" gains still for phones). The gap is narrowing.
  - ekianjo 13y ago
    Well if virtual reality (OR) becomes any popular in the near future, I tell you the PC is going to undergo a revival very quickly, because none of the ARM devices out there have any hope of catching up on the graphical power of the better PC graphic cards out there. > They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches. PC are STILL selling by hundreds of millions every single year. Saying it's dying is like saying winter is coming just because you have a cooler summer day.
  - chestnut-tree 13y ago
    "They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches." The small screen size of a mobile phone will always limit it's suitability for particular tasks. I can't imagine any office, for example, replacing their desktop PCs with smartphones. That's hardly a niche market. Smartphones are good for consumption, but not so good for creation. For example, even the simple task of word-processing is painful on such a small screen using an on-screen keybboard.

by api 13y ago

ekianjo 13y ago

The reason why I believe that PCs will never go completely extinct is that you need large computers for a number of specific applications. 3D rendering, Video editing are computing intensive. Gaming is extremely intensive and it will be even more so with the Occulus Rift and the like, and there's no way mobile devices will bring the same level of graphics as a 1000 dollar graphics card eating 500 Watts, unless there is some kind of technology breakthrough nobody knows about yet. Plugging your mobile phone into a larger screen will work fine for basic browsing and basic use, and that's certainly where Ubuntu wants to go (and they are not alone), but anything beyond that is not going to cut it.

vidarh 13y ago
They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches. My computer is in a huge tower case. In the mid 90's I could go into any computer store and pick one up. Today, finding even a full size ATX case on display is a rarity, and most of the PCs on sale local to me are in form factors closer to Mini-ITX, or are all-in-one PCs. Most people simply don't need enough computing power to need the big units any more - their needs may increase, but they're increasing at a slow enough pace that the size of computer they need keeps dropping. It may not "cut it" for anything beyond basic browsing and basic use today, but that's rapidly changing. My phone performance over the last 3 years have increased several times faster than my desktop and laptop performance (to a large extent because there's lots of "cheap" gains still for phones). The gap is narrowing.
- ekianjo 13y ago
  Well if virtual reality (OR) becomes any popular in the near future, I tell you the PC is going to undergo a revival very quickly, because none of the ARM devices out there have any hope of catching up on the graphical power of the better PC graphic cards out there. > They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches. PC are STILL selling by hundreds of millions every single year. Saying it's dying is like saying winter is coming just because you have a cooler summer day.
- chestnut-tree 13y ago
  "They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches." The small screen size of a mobile phone will always limit it's suitability for particular tasks. I can't imagine any office, for example, replacing their desktop PCs with smartphones. That's hardly a niche market. Smartphones are good for consumption, but not so good for creation. For example, even the simple task of word-processing is painful on such a small screen using an on-screen keybboard.