3 ms·
This is one of my principal reasons for being a singularity-skeptic. While runaway technological innovation might be possible, I think it's likely that economic
by api 13y ago
This is one of my principal reasons for being a singularity-skeptic. While runaway technological innovation might be possible, I think it's likely that economics and politics will stop it.
Physics won't stop Moore's law. Industry consolidation, slowing innovation, and a lack of demand will. I would not be terribly surprised if we never see computers more than 2X as fast/powerful as today's, since without corresponding software and networking innovation to drive demand why would they be built? That's a tad shy if what would be required for strong AI, "mind uploading," or any of that stuff.
- pjlegato 13y agoWe're already seeing that effect in chips, somewhat. The market has gotten to the point where relatively cheap chips are good enough for most people's purposes -- looking at webpages and viewing streaming video on a mobile device. You don't need a top of the line Intel chip to do that; a cheap ARM clone is fine. There is still a higher end driver in the server space, though, as virtualization progresses... How many virtual machines can you fit into one box?