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Yes. It'll be like looking back on the long https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org
by pjlegato 13y ago
Yes. It'll be like looking back on the long https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man... -- the early 20th century was a hotbed of innovation and technical progress, being carried out by hundreds of independent groups on a small scale. Then, the industry consolidated around a few gigantic players, and technical innovation ground to a halt for decades.
- api 13y agoThis is one of my principal reasons for being a singularity-skeptic. While runaway technological innovation might be possible, I think it's likely that economics and politics will stop it. Physics won't stop Moore's law. Industry consolidation, slowing innovation, and a lack of demand will. I would not be terribly surprised if we never see computers more than 2X as fast/powerful as today's, since without corresponding software and networking innovation to drive demand why would they be built? That's a tad shy if what would be required for strong AI, "mind uploading," or any of that stuff.
- pjlegato 13y agoWe're already seeing that effect in chips, somewhat. The market has gotten to the point where relatively cheap chips are good enough for most people's purposes -- looking at webpages and viewing streaming video on a mobile device. You don't need a top of the line Intel chip to do that; a cheap ARM clone is fine. There is still a higher end driver in the server space, though, as virtualization progresses... How many virtual machines can you fit into one box?