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Would be interested in hearing what data they've collected that pushed them to make that declaration. Everything I've heard so far this morning is that there is

Would be interested in hearing what data they've collected that pushed them to make that declaration. Everything I've heard so far this morning is that there is mounting evidence, but nothing concrete. Given the length of time the families (and the rest of the world) have been left hanging, I certainly hope there is slam-dunk evidence that this is the case, and that amendments and alterations won't be forthcoming.

joezydeco 13y ago
Perhaps it's the lack of certain types of data? If they've had cooperation from all countries within flyable range and searched every landing strip and airport by satellite (and surely the USA has quietly put their spytech in operation here), then is it possible to conclude that the plane must have landed in the water somewhere?
- jofer 13y ago
  Cloud cover makes that impossible.
robin_reala 13y ago
From the statement: Inmarsat, the UK company that provided the satellite data which indicated the northern and southern corridors, has been performing further calculations on the data. Using a type of analysis never before used in an investigation of this sort, they have been able to shed more light on MH370’s flight path. Based on their new analysis, Inmarsat and the AAIB have concluded that MH370 flew along the southern corridor, and that its last position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean, west of Perth. Looks like the data was there all along but unextracted.
- JeremyNT 13y ago
  I have heard of Inmarsat before, as a provider of satellite-based IP and telephony services. Perhaps a device utilizing their service was in use on the plane (for in-flight broadband, perhaps?), and Inmarsat was able to review their usage data to help determine the plane's course.
  - jzwinck 13y ago
    Inmarsat is used for in-flight broadband, sometimes branded OnAir. But not on Malaysia Airlines flights as far as I can tell. See http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsats-swiftbroadband-soars-to-new-heights/ http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsats-swiftbroadba...
  - LoganCale 13y ago
    Their satellites appear to regularly send out a ping as a low level part of their communications protocol to see what receivers are in range and to keep channels to them alive. The aircraft's SATCOM system continued to respond to those pings for a number of hours after it disappeared, and the new location information is based on analysis of the series of pings that occurred.
- nodata 13y ago
  Yeah, but yet again it's a lot of words that avoid giving us any information: what analysis did they do, and how did they come to their conclusion?
  - varelse 13y ago
    Some sort of predictor/corrector algorithm likely exploiting high-resolution data that would otherwise be classified is my guess. See Kalman Filters for such a thing... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter
- buro9 13y ago
  Inmarsat data tracks the Rolls Royce engines. The data they have isn't position or direction, it is a set of metrics that report on engine performance and conditions. They never had positional information, except by virtue of the timing signals for those data points to their satellite. Which is how they originally determined the arc shaped corridor. They must have been able to cross-reference this signal with another satellite (or source) to say with certainty that the plane went down the Southern corridor. I would be surprised if this was cross-referenced with one of their own satellites given that they could have done that a week ago. I'd speculate that they were supplied with access to some other source that had received the signals, and were able to use that to triangulate the position.
  - berkut 13y ago
    Wrong - it tracks the plane's Satcom. The RR data can optionally be sent via ACARS, which was manually switched off. So no data from that.
  - omegant 13y ago
    I wrote a blog post last week explaining how the approximate track and final zone could be calculated using the ping data (if more than one ping exists) and dead reckoning (heading and speed). Mind you that I don´t really know the information available to the investigators, but it´s what I would do with some pings available. http://delorbital.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/how-to-estimate-mh370-route-using.html http://delorbital.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/how-to-estimate-mh...
  - nly 13y ago
    > They never had positional information, except by virtue of the timing signals for those data points to their satellite. Does anyone have any more insight in to this? Was the protocol a one-way ping, or a ping-pong exchange? Previous reports have inferred that the data from the hourly pings were incredibly basic. Obviously timing signal propagation is the basis for GPS, but is it normal or even feasible to collect millisecond or microsecond transmission timings for engineering data fed via satellites like the ones operated by Inmarsat? What other variables would have been used for ranging? 1 millisecond at the speed of light is close to 300km.
- hga 13y ago
  Per The Aviation Herald they used new or at least additional sort of unrelated data as well http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0 http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0 : "Shortly after the PM's press conference of Mar 24th 2014 Inmarsat reported that the new analysis of their satellite data used to identify the corridor and final location was based on the Doppler effects modifying radio waves and frequencies depending on speed and direction of travel of the aircraft, these data were compared to other flights. The computations are not precise enough to give the accurate position, however, made it possible to identify the general location. The new modelling and comparism were developed after the first discovery of the data on Mar 11th 2014, the work is still in progress."
Spooky23 13y ago
They knew based on the satellite data that it was either heading to Kazakastan or the Ocean.

joezydeco 13y ago

Perhaps it's the lack of certain types of data? If they've had cooperation from all countries within flyable range and searched every landing strip and airport by satellite (and surely the USA has quietly put their spytech in operation here), then is it possible to conclude that the plane must have landed in the water somewhere?

jofer 13y ago
Cloud cover makes that impossible.

robin_reala 13y ago

From the statement: Inmarsat, the UK company that provided the satellite data which indicated the northern and southern corridors, has been performing further calculations on the data. Using a type of analysis never before used in an investigation of this sort, they have been able to shed more light on MH370’s flight path. Based on their new analysis, Inmarsat and the AAIB have concluded that MH370 flew along the southern corridor, and that its last position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean, west of Perth. Looks like the data was there all along but unextracted.

JeremyNT 13y ago
I have heard of Inmarsat before, as a provider of satellite-based IP and telephony services. Perhaps a device utilizing their service was in use on the plane (for in-flight broadband, perhaps?), and Inmarsat was able to review their usage data to help determine the plane's course.
- jzwinck 13y ago
  Inmarsat is used for in-flight broadband, sometimes branded OnAir. But not on Malaysia Airlines flights as far as I can tell. See http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsats-swiftbroadband-soars-to-new-heights/ http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsats-swiftbroadba...
- LoganCale 13y ago
  Their satellites appear to regularly send out a ping as a low level part of their communications protocol to see what receivers are in range and to keep channels to them alive. The aircraft's SATCOM system continued to respond to those pings for a number of hours after it disappeared, and the new location information is based on analysis of the series of pings that occurred.
nodata 13y ago
Yeah, but yet again it's a lot of words that avoid giving us any information: what analysis did they do, and how did they come to their conclusion?
- varelse 13y ago
  Some sort of predictor/corrector algorithm likely exploiting high-resolution data that would otherwise be classified is my guess. See Kalman Filters for such a thing... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter
buro9 13y ago
Inmarsat data tracks the Rolls Royce engines. The data they have isn't position or direction, it is a set of metrics that report on engine performance and conditions. They never had positional information, except by virtue of the timing signals for those data points to their satellite. Which is how they originally determined the arc shaped corridor. They must have been able to cross-reference this signal with another satellite (or source) to say with certainty that the plane went down the Southern corridor. I would be surprised if this was cross-referenced with one of their own satellites given that they could have done that a week ago. I'd speculate that they were supplied with access to some other source that had received the signals, and were able to use that to triangulate the position.
- berkut 13y ago
  Wrong - it tracks the plane's Satcom. The RR data can optionally be sent via ACARS, which was manually switched off. So no data from that.
- omegant 13y ago
  I wrote a blog post last week explaining how the approximate track and final zone could be calculated using the ping data (if more than one ping exists) and dead reckoning (heading and speed). Mind you that I don´t really know the information available to the investigators, but it´s what I would do with some pings available. http://delorbital.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/how-to-estimate-mh370-route-using.html http://delorbital.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/how-to-estimate-mh...
- nly 13y ago
  > They never had positional information, except by virtue of the timing signals for those data points to their satellite. Does anyone have any more insight in to this? Was the protocol a one-way ping, or a ping-pong exchange? Previous reports have inferred that the data from the hourly pings were incredibly basic. Obviously timing signal propagation is the basis for GPS, but is it normal or even feasible to collect millisecond or microsecond transmission timings for engineering data fed via satellites like the ones operated by Inmarsat? What other variables would have been used for ranging? 1 millisecond at the speed of light is close to 300km.
hga 13y ago
Per The Aviation Herald they used new or at least additional sort of unrelated data as well http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0 http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b&opt=0 : "Shortly after the PM's press conference of Mar 24th 2014 Inmarsat reported that the new analysis of their satellite data used to identify the corridor and final location was based on the Doppler effects modifying radio waves and frequencies depending on speed and direction of travel of the aircraft, these data were compared to other flights. The computations are not precise enough to give the accurate position, however, made it possible to identify the general location. The new modelling and comparism were developed after the first discovery of the data on Mar 11th 2014, the work is still in progress."

Spooky23 13y ago

They knew based on the satellite data that it was either heading to Kazakastan or the Ocean.