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Buffet and his business partner Charlie Munger have a simple philosophy: You can't make intelligent evaluations about everything, so focus on the (simple) thing
by harshreality 13y ago
Buffet and his business partner Charlie Munger have a simple philosophy: You can't make intelligent evaluations about everything, so focus on the (simple) things you can evaluate well, and pick the best of those to invest in.
It works well enough as an investment strategy, assuming the political landscape affecting the moral view of businesses doesn't change radically, or at least it has worked well for the last ~half century. It also means you end up investing in candy companies, sugar water companies (Coca Cola), sugar tomato sauce companies (Heinz)... (and did they invest in a tobacco company? I don't remember, but Buffet was on record in the 1980's praising the business model of big tobacco, even though he later changed his tune.) Note the externalities and lack of vision: some major BRK investments are in companies that are rather bad for people's health.
Buffet and Munger are very smart. They know their limits, and they are fanatical about avoiding cognitive bias. They're very ethical within the small domain of their business. However, they don't concern themselves with, or dream about, the big picture. They have avoided most tech companies, for good reason, but individual tech companies have flourished (e.g. Microsoft and Oracle, then Apple and Google, and now newer startups). Being too complex to be favored by Buffet and Munger does not necessarily mean you will fail.
Seeing Buffet complain about bitcoin, I have to wonder why he's warning investors about something he doesn't understand (nothing against him; neither do I) rather than focusing on his core competency. The sad answer, I fear, is that Berkshire Hathaway is in the politics business now because their business has gotten too unwieldy (which they're honest about; they openly admitted long ago that returns would decline). Slowing the decline in their rate of return is their business now, and that means playing politics. Bitcoin, whether it's viable or not, could be a threat to the economic establishment. Therefore, it threatens Berkshire Hathaway, and rather than staying silent on the subject like he does about almost everything else he doesn't understand, he makes a public statement against bitcoin.
- adventured 13y agoFor the same reason he dislikes gold I suspect. He benefits tremendously from the status quo dollar fiat system. He has stated it's a critical ability for the Fed to be able to step in and do what they did eg in 2009, acting as a supposed lender of last resort. A de-centralized money system would end or severely hamper that. Buffett has also frequently stated that he strongly prefers goods that produce (using everything from farmland to owning Coke as examples, as opposed to gold which doesn't produce, but rather is properly a store of value). From everything I've read over the years, I would say Buffett strongly prefers that central banks be able to step in and inflate / devalue currencies when it's deemed necessary. In a world of dominant bitcoin-like currencies, that ability pretty much goes away.
- mcguire 13y agoThe foundation of Berkshire Hathaway is insurance. If you think insurance is simple, you're either much smarter than I am, you know a lot about things that I don't, or you're delusional. My understanding of BRK is that it is the business of resource allocation (i.e. "management") for the purposes of investment. (Did I mention the insurance thing?) I suspect that provides enough of an understanding of the situation for Uncle Warren. I don't believe BRK is involved in currency speculation as a primary business either. ("Primary": currency risks are unavoidable. What I doubt is that Buffet regards them as a profit center.)