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An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty

An American ex-pat in China here. I came to China during the economic crash in 2009 and have seen it all progress the last 5 years. Yes there are random empty apartment buildings and a few absurdities like --> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall. However, overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status over the next century. For example, within 5 more years the entire of Guangdong Province will be connected by high speed rail and subway - meaning 100 million people and businesses will be connected by public transit with no more than a 2 hour ride. There is already a critical mass of manufacturing capability here, and with that added layer of network infrastructure, even if labor costs rise 100% YOY to match USA and Germany in a decade, Guangdong China will still be the worlds factory. Furthermore, the internal consumption machine of 1.3B people is undeniably ramping up now. They are spending money, the largest middle class on the planet is clearly taking shape, and lives are measurably improving all around me. There may be a few bumps in the road but there will be no collapse.

seanmcdirmid 13y ago
Ex-pat since 2007 here. Change is happening quite slowly, internal consumption is still moribund as people save to cover retirement and health expenses (social insurance isn't very strong). Even a big city like Beijing has a lot of fairly empty malls, and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. China does have better infrastructure than say India, and its long term outlook is good. But there are definitely challenges in this and the next few years to get through.
- marukokinno 13y ago
  >>internal consumption is still moribund Do you ever go to the supermarkets? Every time I go to eat outside in the evening at the mall, I have to wait a line of at least 5 numbers to get a table, and I live in the suburbs, very far from downtown.
  - seanmcdirmid 13y ago
    Everything is crowded in China, what does that prove? That consumption of food happens is of no doubt, but you have to save like crazy for everything else. I have a few years of salary saved up in the bank since there is absolutely nothing to buy except overpriced real estate and cars (but then I'd have to join the lottery for a plate).
    - marukokinno 13y ago
      Taobao, 360.com and the likes are selling Billions and Billions trough the internet, massive amount of internet consumption, home appliances, electronics, clothes. Thats not food nor real state and cars
- est 13y ago
  > and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. Malls you feel wwwaaaay over-crowded today were once empty for like 5-8 years in the 90s or 80s. Google for 烂尾楼 and you'll find a ton.
  - seanmcdirmid 13y ago
    Strange. In Beijing its the opposite, the old malls dry up as soon as the new ones open. Jongrongjie is a good example.
riggins 13y ago
overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.
- ekianjo 13y ago
  > the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me. Isn't it what the US has been claiming all the time? With the FDR New Deal theory ?
  - AJ007 13y ago
    This is what Japan has been doing since their dominance in the 1980's fizzled out. In both the US/FDR case and Japan's, I believe the infrastructure spending was seen as a way to re-ignite growth while also creating something long lasting. There certainly is some truth to the long lasting piece. A country with poor infrastructure will have a very difficult time growing. What is controversial is building things either few people use or are far more expensive than they should be. On the flip side, infrastructure has to be serviced to remain viable. In addition to using money that is "borrowed" one way or the other, the maintenance cost is created as well. Easy to get carried away.
    - ekianjo 13y ago
      Oh, I'm not saying that I embrace the theory (I actually am against such policies - most of the times they are used to get people re-elected), but I was just mentioning it's still being regarded as a valid way of creating jobs and stimulating the Economy by numerous economists.
    - epaladin 13y ago
      In Japan there was a good deal of abuse of funds in the name of infrastructure. Investing in creation of high speed rail lines: clearly beneficial. Concreteing nearly every riverbed in the country: ???.
  - 13y ago
austinz 13y ago
A couple of links to support your hypothesis: - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/business/global/high-speed-train-system-is-huge-success-for-china.html http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/business/global/high-speed... - http://www.economist.com/news/china/21592628-china-opens-books-its-big-spending-local-governments-counting-ghosts http://www.economist.com/news/china/21592628-china-opens-boo... - http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/chinas-economy http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/chinas-e...

seanmcdirmid 13y ago

Ex-pat since 2007 here. Change is happening quite slowly, internal consumption is still moribund as people save to cover retirement and health expenses (social insurance isn't very strong). Even a big city like Beijing has a lot of fairly empty malls, and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. China does have better infrastructure than say India, and its long term outlook is good. But there are definitely challenges in this and the next few years to get through.

marukokinno 13y ago
>>internal consumption is still moribund Do you ever go to the supermarkets? Every time I go to eat outside in the evening at the mall, I have to wait a line of at least 5 numbers to get a table, and I live in the suburbs, very far from downtown.
- seanmcdirmid 13y ago
  Everything is crowded in China, what does that prove? That consumption of food happens is of no doubt, but you have to save like crazy for everything else. I have a few years of salary saved up in the bank since there is absolutely nothing to buy except overpriced real estate and cars (but then I'd have to join the lottery for a plate).
  - marukokinno 13y ago
    Taobao, 360.com and the likes are selling Billions and Billions trough the internet, massive amount of internet consumption, home appliances, electronics, clothes. Thats not food nor real state and cars
est 13y ago
> and if you go to 2nd tier cities, you'll see new developments everywhere that are basically empty. Malls you feel wwwaaaay over-crowded today were once empty for like 5-8 years in the 90s or 80s. Google for 烂尾楼 and you'll find a ton.
- seanmcdirmid 13y ago
  Strange. In Beijing its the opposite, the old malls dry up as soon as the new ones open. Jongrongjie is a good example.

riggins 13y ago

overall the infrastructure they have built has put this country in a position to achieve dominant superpower status the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me.

ekianjo 13y ago
> the claim that infrastructure spending leads to economic prosperity/dominance sounds pretty extraordinary to me. Isn't it what the US has been claiming all the time? With the FDR New Deal theory ?
- AJ007 13y ago
  This is what Japan has been doing since their dominance in the 1980's fizzled out. In both the US/FDR case and Japan's, I believe the infrastructure spending was seen as a way to re-ignite growth while also creating something long lasting. There certainly is some truth to the long lasting piece. A country with poor infrastructure will have a very difficult time growing. What is controversial is building things either few people use or are far more expensive than they should be. On the flip side, infrastructure has to be serviced to remain viable. In addition to using money that is "borrowed" one way or the other, the maintenance cost is created as well. Easy to get carried away.
  - ekianjo 13y ago
    Oh, I'm not saying that I embrace the theory (I actually am against such policies - most of the times they are used to get people re-elected), but I was just mentioning it's still being regarded as a valid way of creating jobs and stimulating the Economy by numerous economists.
  - epaladin 13y ago
    In Japan there was a good deal of abuse of funds in the name of infrastructure. Investing in creation of high speed rail lines: clearly beneficial. Concreteing nearly every riverbed in the country: ???.
- 13y ago

austinz 13y ago

A couple of links to support your hypothesis: - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/business/global/high-speed-train-system-is-huge-success-for-china.html http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/business/global/high-speed... - http://www.economist.com/news/china/21592628-china-opens-books-its-big-spending-local-governments-counting-ghosts http://www.economist.com/news/china/21592628-china-opens-boo... - http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/chinas-economy http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/chinas-e...