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There is no point in arguing with the statements of today's facts. Such statements are also not very interesting, since they are common knowledge. What is inter
by 1gor 17y ago
There is no point in arguing with the statements of today's facts. Such statements are also not very interesting, since they are common knowledge. What is interesting, is the dynamics and the direction of the change.
In all emerging market economies that managed to stabilize their currencies and make them appreciate (Latin America in the 90s) this has led to domestic consumer booms and reduction of current accounts surpluses (or running up deficits). China has not gone this route yet, but this is a massive reserve of growth. I am sure their leaders understand this. Of course, to focus on domestic market instead of exports, it represents a major policy change. But fundamentals increasingly point at this scenario, so we may reasonably assume that this is what will eventually happen.
I also do not buy the 'forced loans' concept. Throughout last years of rapid growth Chinese authorities have been in fact imposing artificial caps on domestic credit growth, since they don't have developed domestic debt market, and therefore lack effective tools to sterilize their dollar interventions. Immediately after financial crisis, the Chinese have removed many of those lending restrictions, as part of their 'stimulus'. Now, because of the developing stock market bubble in domestic Chinese stocks, the authorities are bringing the lending restrictions back.
I think the idea of 'forced loans' came from the same area as fables of state-planned road running through schools and kindergartens (but not through villas of state officials). It is so heavily mixed up with ideological propaganda and clichés, that it does not really deserve a serious discussion.
- joe_the_user 17y agoHmm, The fact that state imposes cap when it wishes should make it more likely that the state can also impose loan levels when it wishes. Moreover, I have read a number of news items I think the idea of 'forced loans' came from the same area as fables of state-planned road running through schools and kindergartens Uh, the point was not about exactly which projects the Chinese state choose to impose but that the Chinese can impose project and solely and only on bureaucratic initiative, even those projects involve considerable hardship on people. A well-known example of this is the Three Gorges Damn - up to a million people are thought to have been displaced by this initiative.