I think it's easy: There are only a few organizations (state owned or private) that are able to pull up something like this. Keeping an eye on the stock-market

I think it's easy: There are only a few organizations (state owned or private) that are able to pull up something like this. Keeping an eye on the stock-market of the parties involved (who's went up, who's went down, who bought CDS instead, etc.) will tell you enough. For us, me at least, it's kinda hard to follow through. But imagine you are the "Bundesnachrichtendienst" (I know it's incredibly hard to read, not to mention to spell it correctly, maybe they did it on purpose), it's the German CIA counterpart. They have the means to find out easily. What happens next depends on so many factors that it could be a good task for a prediction algorithm.