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> [...] but I guarantee that nothing will change. No, that you can not guarantee. No one can predict the series of events of that this or any other form of pro
by atmosx 13y ago
> [...] but I guarantee that nothing will change.
No, that you can not guarantee. No one can predict the series of events of that this or any other form of protest might enable[1]. These social unrest situations initialize events that can only be approached by chaos theory since we can't even count the variables involved. In mathematics of chaos we have the notable butterfly effect. The 'Arab Spring' was initialized by a guy who set himself on fire on a small town after suffering what he considered to be a misjudgment (Mohamed Bouazizi[3]).
I know my examples are far-fetched by I'm trying to show the bigger picture here: When the police officer was harassing Bouazizi for the n-th time, even if he told that he will set himself on fire, I'm sure that she would not care less. She may even call some friends to enjoy the show... What she couldn't foresee is that a few months later Ben Ali would have to step down for something a corrupted, insignificant in the bigger picture police officer had initiated. We might argue that if it were not for Bouazizi something else would have happened to spin the wheels of the Tunisian revolution, but we don't know for sure and when you add to many 'if' you end up writing a romance.
[1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxQX9fYf2aI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxQX9fYf2aI
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bouazizi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bouazizi
- junto 13y agoThese environments are notably different to western countries. The UK hasn't had a real revolution since 1642. 1688 doesn't count since it was more of an invasion. The US is also extremely stable since the American Civil War. The Arab spring was different because the vast majority of the people had nothing to do and their government's used brutal oppression rather than the sheep bubble I talked about above. Idle hands and brutality are are poisonous mix.
- atmosx 13y agoSure, but the issue at hand is a law that will introduce some accountability to a state organization not civil revolution.