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Our Love Affair With the Tablet Is Over

160 points by slackpad 13y ago

dankoss 13y ago
The initial tablet market struck me as a very boomer focused device, one that made computing easy for a limited subset of tasks. I think he's wrong that tablets have peaked. As the software and hardware on tablets catches up to the capability of a full laptop, they are a much more compelling device for use at home or at work. Content creation, software development and file management are still a challenge but these can be fixed. I really hope the Surface and derivatives catch on in the enterprise, because I'm tired of lugging a 7lb laptop to and from meetings.
- pacaro 13y ago
  My yoga 2 pro has completely allowed me to replace two devices. The only possible advantage a dedicated tablet has would be size/weight, but I've yet to encounter that in my purely anecdotal usage
- andrewfong 13y ago
  2-in-1 PCs are great, Windows 8 notwithstanding. I just got a Thinkpad Yoga and being able to work in tablet mode when I'm stuck in cramped seat on a train or plane is fantastic. I'm also encouraged by the return of pen-based digitizers. I know it's a small niche, but for designers and artists, it's quite nice.
- loudmax 13y ago
  I'm a Linux user and very much addicted to the CLI. For any kind of work, a tablet isn't really right for me. I'm getting by okay with two laptops at the office: An MBP that weighs at least 7 lbs and a 2.2 lb ThinkPad. All my work stuff is on my MBP which stays on my desk. I take my ThinkPad to meetings, and if I need to reference something off the MBP I simply ssh into it. That would be a pain without a keyboard. So being a Linux CLI guy puts me at something like 1% of computer users. I agree that the tablet content creation interface can be fixed for most of the rest of the 99%. I expect that soon the only distinction between a tablet and a laptop is whether or not the keyboard is attached.
  - tluyben2 13y ago
    I am very much a Linux user and addicted to the CLI and my plethora of tools, doing heavy work (like compilation) on servers. I buy the lightest computing devices as I don't really need anything with a lot of processing power; so battery life and actual weight win it for me. I had a heavy MBP before I bought a Chromebook and I don't see me ever doing that again. As for tablets; I like to have them laying around for content consumption but for everything else I really do need a keyboard and I don't really know how that could be replaced. I tried the keyboards on tablets (including the surface 2) and they are a joke for coding imho.
  - coldtea 13y ago
    If you're addicted to the CLI why the MBP? A MBA would serve you just as well, and be lighter.
    - emn13 13y ago
      Probably because until recently, only the MBP was retina - and that's a big advantage (to me).
      - sdegutis 13y ago
        I agree.
    - loudmax 13y ago
      Legacy, mainly. You're right, I'd be just as happy with an MBA or my ThinkPad and a bunch of server space. As a CLI user, that's an easy trade-off. I suspect it's slightly more difficult for GUI users to make the transition because applications are usually written with the expectation of running on a local machine. As the GUI moves to the web it will become irrelevant. I really liked the desktop/phone combo in the movie Her. The main character buys an "Operating System" that sort of takes over his desktop at home and at work and also his phone. I don't know that it's something we'd want to call an OS the way Windows or Linux is an OS, but there's a lot of sense to a user interface that follows you on whatever device you happen to be using.
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maxerickson 13y ago
I bought a tablet for travel because I don't really care if I have a smart phone or not. I didn't really think it would replace things with keyboards and I still really like it for travel. The real problem is that cross device integration is so awful, hopefully the future has us configuring environments instead of devices (environment there being the software I want to see when I look at a small touch screen or the software I want to see when I look at a large screen with a keyboard).
- taternuts 13y ago
  I think the battery life is the one thing tablets are still great for, if I traveled a lot I'd consider owning one for long media playback sessions a necessity
0xdeadbeefbabe 13y ago
My love affair with touch screens is over. What a coincidence.
- JetSpiegel 13y ago
  Mine has never begun. I don't feel lonely, though. I have a keyboard.
- BlackDeath3 13y ago
  I have to agree with that. We pretty much all grew up before touchscreens were widely available as they are now, and as such I think the allure of them was in their novelty. The more I use touchscreens, the more I realize how inefficient and inconsistent they tend to be (at least, the ones I've used).
  - freehunter 13y ago
    I feel the opposite. Whenever I'm using a computer without a touch screen and the screen is close enough to touch (or in a convenient location to touch), I have to fight instinct to touch the screen. Sometimes it's just easier (for me at least) to jab your finger at the thing you want to click on than it is to move the mouse to it.
    - BlackDeath3 13y ago
      I think it's really context-sensitive. Some things work best with a touchscreen, I suppose. I do know one thing - I'd probably rather beat myself to death with a tablet than try to program (or type anything at all, for that matter) on it.
- coldtea 13y ago
  Well, aside from tablets and phones, touch screens are useless. You're not gonna hold your hand straight in the air for more than a 10 minute stretch.
mjt0229 13y ago
I never really got tablets - too big to be portable and crippled by the lack of usable input devices. My 11" Macbook Air is just about as portable as an iPad, but is way easier to use, not just for streaming, but even for coding, etc. Of course, I've been wrong about things before and I'm not really a typical consumer user, but I just can't imagine a future for tablets with phones getting as good as they are, and small laptops being as slim and powerful as they are.
- grecy 13y ago
  Have you ever seen a child use a tablet? It's mind-blowing to see a 3 year old use one better than their parents. I don't think tablets will ever replace laptops, but that's not the point of consumption is it. They'd rather you buy a laptop for "work" a tablet for "consumption" and a phone, and...
  - geuis 13y ago
    Yes it is, but as you said, a 3 year old isn't trying to get work done. What we need to see is how the kids first using phones from 7 years ago are doing with tablets and their ilk now in school. That's your earliest cohort of 10 year olds first exposed to the iPhone.
    - ako 13y ago
      Yes, and watching tv or reading a book you are also not getting any work doen. What's the point? Computers are no longer just about getting work doen. For many, computers are more about entertainment and communication, than about work.
      - bphogan 13y ago
        I've long argued that we, as tech folks, are not the target for tablets. The target for tablets are the Facebook Messenger folks. the people who want to watch videos and surf the web, chat with others, etc. You know, the same folks Dell was able to con into paying $600 for a computer that needed GeekSquad to fix it every six months because computers are so unfriendly to non-technical people. Tablets, especially ones with curated app stores, solve that problem. And people who are not techies love that.
HillRat 13y ago
Not sure how a nearly 30% YOY increase in tablet sales for Q4 translates to a dead market, unless they thought tablets would end up as full replacements for existing systems. Few people are replacing their other computing devices for tablets, but obviously a large number of people see, and will continue to see, tablets as good secondary devices. I suspect, however, that replacement cycles for tablets will be longer than for phones (which cycle out on contracts) or PCs (driven by corporate platforming schedules). Anecdotally, I lug around a smartphone, laptop, iPad and Kindle, but I can collapse the last three into the iPad for a lot of daily nontechnical tasks. (Hell, I can even prototype Python on it.) It's not a necessary part of my kit, but I'll keep one around for convenience alone.
normloman 13y ago
Lots of sales people use it for presentations, since it weighs less than a laptop, but has a bigger screen than a phone. Also makes a great e-book reader. Definitely not a laptop replacement.
danmaz74 13y ago
My tablet gradually became my three-years-old daughter's tablet. I almost never miss it :)
CmonDev 13y ago
It's very good for gaming. It's a good device for your home.
bnolsen 13y ago
I like tablets, but for very limited uses. They excel, especially for casual puzzle type games that respond very well to touch. For light reading they work fine as well. Browsing the internet? Well not so great. Mobile versions of websites seem to be always wanting and a lot of web pages are too target rich making it way too easy to accidentally click on something like an advertisement or side bar thingy. And I spend too much time zooming pages and waiting for reflows as well. Overall a pretty irritating experience. Data input? hehe, yeah right.
dictum 13y ago
My love affair with the tablet isn't over: I love how it lets me browse the web, read books and magazines, and watch videos in bed after a long day. That's probably how most people use their tablets — secondary devices, mainly for entertainment. After a working day, I don't want to use a PC, and the tablet lets me use the web and other media comfortably, but I wouldn't try to actually use it for work beyond initially planning projects. It's much more human, for lack of a better word — more intimate, more ergonomic — than a PC for (browsing the web|reading ebooks or PDFs|watching videos|making video calls).
- sjs382 13y ago
  Agreed. I'll even go as far as saying that away from work, my Nexus 7 quickly became my primary device. I dread sitting down at the laptop if I'm away form the office. The existence of the tablet has (indirectly) made me more productive at work, too: Rather than reading articles that come through my RSS feed when I'm working (which is a vice of mine), I just add any interesting items to my Pocket queue, and read it that night (or later in the week) when relaxing at home. Not because I don't want to read the article right away (I usually want to)—but because I actually prefer to read on the tablet.
- zipperhead 13y ago
  Yes, and the superior battery life of a tablet enables this casual consumption very nicely.
- NathanKP 13y ago
  This is exactly how I use my tablet too. I use my computer all day writing code, so when its time to relax with some Netflix, or an ebook I grab my tablet instead. Its perfect for laying on the couch or in bed. A phone definitely works in that case as well, but the tiny screen isn't as nice for reading and watching video. Not to mention by the end of the day my phone is usually mostly dead and its time to put it on the charger for tomorrow. So trying to use my phone in bed while its attached to a charger is annoying. The tablet meanwhile is charged up (and usually lasts a full week for me between charges, even during heavy Netflix usage).
api 13y ago
I am not surprised at all: a crippled, jailed, feudalized device that is too large to be carried in your pocket like a phone but far too limited to replace a laptop. I don't think they'll go away. They're an acceptable "portable dumb terminal" for certain kinds of work or for people who only want web and e-mail and a few apps. They also really kick butt for point of sale terminals and similar kiosk applications.
zacinbusiness 13y ago
I use my iPad all the time. From writing documentation to taking notes on projects I'm working on. I also use it for wire framing designs and for editing and passing on documents when I get an email and am away from my computer. I also do these things with my iPhone, but the iPad makes it a little easier with the larger screen. So, some folks use them for one thing, and some folks use them for another thing (or not at all). That's the story for basically every product that exists....so.... In other words, re/code is trying to build up their content by using fluff stuff like this - polarizing and gets page views by inciting flame wars.
killertypo 13y ago
I read all my comics on my tablet device. it is the perfect size screen / interface. I have the same marvel/dc app on my iphone and it's not the same experience. It tries to be, but the real estate makes it impossible to enjoy in the same fashion.
taopao 13y ago
Why do things have to be boiled down into winner-take-all narratives? I feel that the public has no capacity for nuance anymore. Look, the tablet has its place - usually situations that don't require high-bandwidth HIDs such as keyboards. The computer user of the future will have many devices spanning many different form factors. It's OK.
gress 13y ago
This seems like a weirdly narrow experience to base writing off tablets in general on. It also is contradicted by the massive volume of android tablets being specifically sold as tv replacements. Seems like he's been deluded by taking numbers out of context.
LeicaLatte 13y ago
Media's love affair with tablets is probably over. They have tried everything and not able to continue/recreate the monopoly they enjoyed with paper. Not on the web. Not on tablets. For the rest of us, it is so getting started.
angryasian 13y ago
This is just a rehashing of the netbook. As phones get bigger and/or something else replaces the need of casual consumption in a different or more appealing form factor, we'll say bye to the tablet as well.
- r00fus 13y ago
  The original (OLPC-derived) netbook was a thing of beauty. Once Microsoft and Intel got their claws into it, it became a cheap PC with poor inputs that didn't do anything well (by design - an ARM/Linux netbook threatened the WinTel dominance of the day).
fidotron 13y ago
The more subtle point here about phablets being the death of tablets is, in my experience, dead on. People still addicted to their 7inch+ tablets simply haven't used a phablet. I spent last year being much more impressed by single purpose devices anyway. Stuff like the latest eink Kindles, the Chromecast and so on. Curiously they all follow the same push style of content delivery, where it is pushed from the network to the device for focused consumption, and I can't help thinking this is the future.
pessimizer 13y ago
I have an unshakable belief that the (iPad style) tablet market is almost completely driven by married men with young children at home, or who hide the fact that they masturbate from their wives.
jmspring 13y ago
My iPad is the my primary device for reading technical books, RFCs, and other PDFs. It is often an accessory to when I am working on my laptop. Rather than two different screens, one for development and one for reference info, the iPad fills that role. It is also typically what we use for watching movies at night while heading to bed -- we have a decent digital media library. I don't see the affair as being over, maybe the tablets people have are good enough for their current uses.
Zigurd 13y ago
The article is wrong in at least two ways: 1. The Bad Experience cited is with Windows tablets. This ignores how hard it is to move a non-touch system to tablets. 2. He cites Netflix "losing momentum" on tablets. If this was true for media use on tablets in general, Amazon would not be pouring as much effort as they are into tablets. Google has done a bad job marketing Android on tablets. Apple has done a great job with iPad. YMMV.
- fpgeek 13y ago
  > If this was true for media use on tablets in general, Amazon would not be pouring as much effort as they are into tablets. Amazon, unlike Netflix, is worried about being kicked out of the iOS ecosystem. Kindle (and all the other major eBook apps) already came close at least once. Unless Amazon was convinced that media use on tablets was going to collapse (not just plateau), they desperately need the deterrent and the insurance policy.
gopalv 13y ago
Some factor of "Everyone who wants one - has one" applies. And then there's this - http://thedoghousediaries.com/5608 http://thedoghousediaries.com/5608 Once you hit the "content consumption from toilet" first world problem, the rest of the market actually would like a smaller device with the same connectivity. That said, I'm a recent tablet user because with a Nexus7 and a Chromecast, my screen is actually big, 10 feet away and doesn't need me to hold it.
Yhippa 13y ago
Someone who is actually in the trenches can probably answer this but my guess is that a lot of the newest and hottest apps tend to be released for phones first and then later on a tablet version comes along. The lowest common denominator is going to be the phone since so many people have them and I have to pull it out to be able to use app X. It might not be available yet for my tablet or it is and it's not as feature-packed or as easy to use.
kleptco 13y ago
The author is right. No one wants to hold their computer for extended use. The phablet is the right compromise, it does everything a tablet does and more while still being light, small and always with you. Also, having 1 device is much less expensive and cumbersome than having 2.
jack-r-abbit 13y ago
I rarely use the keyboard on my laptop. The laptop is part of a larger setup that involves a larger external monitor (with the laptop screen being the secondary display) and a wireless keyboard and mouse. I would love it if the laptop was just a tablet "docked" to connect to the monitor and keyboard/mouse. Then I could easily undock the tablet and use it as a tablet when I wanted to. But then plug it back in for a more "traditional PC" feel. Obviously it needs to be powerful enough for me to get my work done... and it would need to run the apps I need to get my work done.
- sethhochberg 13y ago
  Interestingly enough, you've pretty much described Microsoft's Surface / Surface Pro. I think, debacle about the x86 vs ARM (Win RT) confusion aside, they're onto something with the form factor and expandability.
  - jack-r-abbit 13y ago
    My current personal use laptop is less than a year old. I'm hoping by the time I need to replace it things will have settled down a bit with the Surface... or some other device that fits the description comes along.
daigoba66 13y ago
I got an iPad about 18 months ago. Since then I've not used a "PC" at home, with the exception of when I use my work's laptop for doing work (programming) at home. I do everything from the tablet: browsing the web, "social" stuff, paying bills, e-mail, etc.
tluyben2 13y ago
More and more people are switching to tablets only; almost all managers, sales people, account managers, project managers I know are not using tablets anymore but have iPads. Don't see it dying soon as these people don't need laptops and won't use laptops anymore. Then there is non professionals who all buy tablets instead of laptops; my neighbour who swore she would never buy 'a computer' now walks around with her E50 Android tablet all the time. I think sales will only go up.
analog31 13y ago
I have a desktop PC, a notebook, a tablet, and a phone. All four of them were getting long of tooth -- an inevitability given the rapid pace of obsolescence. Which one did I upgrade, and why? My phone, for two reasons: 1. I needed to upgrade my phone in order to sign up with a new provider of phone service. None of the other devices are tethered to a single (invariably evil) service provider for mainstream use. 2. Inefficiency and obsolescence such as sluggish performance carried the highest price on the phone, because my need for the phone occurs in awkward situations such as getting from A to B in my car, or deciding which product to buy in the store. If these are widespread patterns, then the result will be that the slickest, newest computers in the typical household will be phones.
bhauer 13y ago
Although I own three tablets, my love affair with the tablet as it exists today never really took off the same way it did for so many consumers. The primary reason is that I do not believe that tablets should be first-class computing devices. Tablets, and in my opinion, the entirety of what we today call "mobile," should be subservient to a general computing model of personal omnipresent applications [1]. Put more concretely, I should only have one e-mail application, one web browser, one IM client, one media player, and all of my devices—wired, wireless, wifi, cellular, and everything in between—should be views upon those singular applications and nothing more. So although I have three tablets because I am a technology addict, I simultaneously do not want them because I do not want additional first-class computing devices in my life. If each additional tablet I purchased were just another input and output device—an additional view—added to my arsenal, I would buy as many as I see worthwhile to have scattered throughout my house and office. But as it is, each additional tablet (or phone or computer) is a first-class device with first-class expectations for my attention. Every device wants to be babied with application installations, updates, configuration, local data, and the works. Today's plain cloud is a meager, sticky, and altogether phony solution to this problem. It's interesting to see this and an article about decentralizing the Internet (mischaracterized as "the web") as the top two articles at HN presently. I recently ranted [2] that Mr. Nadella should seize the opportunity to take Microsoft into a fundamentally different direction than what everyone is telling him, including himself ("mobile first, cloud first"), rather focusing on users and applications first. Particular views of applications, such as mobile or desktop or living room, are secondary matters. I'd like to see Microsoft step up and become the only tech titan to stop following today's mobile-first, cloud-first model and swing the pendulum back to self-control with technology serving users, not companies. [1] http://tiamat.tsotech.com/pao http://tiamat.tsotech.com/pao [2] http://tiamat.tsotech.com/microsoft-carve-your-path http://tiamat.tsotech.com/microsoft-carve-your-path
- return0 13y ago
  That's a good point, and that's why the plain Kindle is more appealing to me. The fact that it syncs automaticall, and it's dumb (only good for one thing) makes it more useful.
- pedalpete 13y ago
misuba 13y ago
The article's right that most people want one small device and one big one. It's just wrong that the big one most people want is a laptop or PC.
mathattack 13y ago
I was an early adopter of the iPad too, but now get more use out of a very tiny MacBook Air. The laptop slimmed down to meet it, rather than the phone moving up. For me the key has been the ability to type.
- giantrobothead 13y ago
  Agreed. Any device that limits my ability to communicate effectively is not for me. Also, as an avid CLI user, a tablet is next to useless for me. I don't really feel like buying a bluetooth keyboard for a tablet just to optimize text input.
  - mathattack 13y ago
    I think the iPad is most efficient as a 1 way device. Great for reading and viewing, but not good for responding. Hence the airplane use call. Laptops have gotten convenient enough (and strong enough batteries) to compete though.
    - giantrobothead 13y ago
      I can see the utility of the tablet as a browsing/reading/listening device. However, I am a bit of a curmudgeon and will clutch my laptop to myself as long as possible.
bluedino 13y ago
I love my iPad Mini. I don't regret moving to it from a regular iPad at all. Now, only if Safari didn't crash once an hour...
- merrua 13y ago
  The crashing is very annoying and very very common.
josephlord 13y ago
Watch video on a TV, read on a tablet and write on a keyboard. Mobile when I'm out or only have one hand free. It isn't quite that simple but it isn't far off.
Grue3 13y ago
This is a product, the demand for which was singlehandedly created by one company. Before Apple, nobody wanted a tablet. And nobody needed a tablet. But Apple-fans would have bought anything if Steve Jobs said so. And then other people thought they wanted one too. It's much like De Boers and diamonds. Fortunately, tech fads pass rather quickly.
lechevalierd3on 13y ago
I've never cheated on my MacBook Air...
jarjoura 13y ago
What does this have to do with desktops? This article is saying that as people apparently migrate to larger phones they will then find tablets unnecessary. I think there is room in the world for people to have both a small one-hand useable phone coupled with a larger multipurpose tablet. There is also room for people to buy devices like the Sony 6" phablet that works both as a phone and a "tablet."
alexeisadeski3 13y ago
For my personal use, the Macbook Air line and Kindle have destroyed any non-game tablet utlity.
INTPenis 13y ago
My N7 is used for exactly these things, alarm clock, iTunes remote, Telldus remote (this controls lights and power outlets around the apartment) and browser for when my computer is being used by someone else or when I'm playing a game on it. So it's not worthless, but I can easily imagine how I lived before it. :)
appliedluck 13y ago
I wonder how much of a factor the decline of middle class spending is affecting the tablet consumer space. A phone is a more necessary gadget. A tablet could be considered a luxury item. Maybe people just can't fit them in their budget? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-is-steadily-eroding-just-ask-the-business-world.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-...
pswenson 13y ago
I think there is some truth to the article, but not that much. Yeah, 5" devices are a nice size and make people somewhat less likely to reach for their tablet when reading. But is a 5" screen going to replace a textbook? or a magazine? or a kiosk? are people going to want to watch a movie on their phone? It's all of the above - phones, tablets, laptops. Depends on what you are doing. But fact is, many are now using tablets instead of laptops. Tablets are simply a more pleasant experience for causal use. And a lot of computer use is casual - reading, surfing the web, games, email, facebook. So IMO tablets trend up in the long term, laptops trend down. But neither die.
marquis 13y ago
Doesn't have kids..
dragontamer 13y ago
On the contrary. Tablets are finally beginning to get good. Android Tablets support multiple users. Active stylus support is becoming natural (Surface Pro, Dell Venue Pro, Galaxy Note and Galaxy Tab Note). Tablets are beginning to treat HTML5 pages more consistently. Its still a while out before Tablets become amazing, but I'm going to be grabbing one soon (Dell Venue Pro 8 + Active Stylus) because they're finally good enough to be on my radar.
clarky07 13y ago
This is silly. Expectations for phones and tablets are crazy, specifically when talking about apple. I read things daily that say apple is done for talking about both phones and tablets. The market share numbers aren't THAT important when we are talking about numbers as big as we are. In the mid 90's, when Microsoft "Won" and Apple lost the global PC market was ~50 million. Apple alone sold more tablets than that last year, and they sold more phones than that last quarter. They don't have to sell 200 million tablets and phones per quarter. Apple is going to die or get crushed because Android has more market share, and tablets aren't going away either. The only reason tablet sales haven't gone to the moon like some people predicted, is that they misunderstood the replacement cycle. It's not something that needs to be replaced every year or two like a phone. My iPad 2 is still just fine. I would love to have an iPad air because it is nicer, but the functionality is pretty much the same. In another year or two it might get to the point where i want/need to upgrade. But that is 4-5 year replacement cycle, not 1-2.
ChuckMcM 13y ago
There is an interesting commonality here, everyone "grew up" with computers. Tablets aren't computers, they are smart displays, and that dissonance seems to grind sometimes. The Kindle/Nook concept of a tablet is pretty straightforward, keep it as cheap as possible and let be your portal into a bunch of pre-created content. I used my iPad and my Nook HD this way, I've got 45 books I carry around in my messenger bag that used to sit on the shelf at home. I've got over a 150 datasheet/appnote/technical manuals in PDF form which works ok on "large" (>= 9") screens. I've got Evernote to index stuff and 1dollarscan to convert things that I can't purchase in a compatible format. I've got a few thousand hours of music I like which I can stream to headphones to keep the noise of the world out. That is the stuff tablets are really good at. I've got a Lenovo laptop to do code development and computing on. I don't bother trying to do that stuff on a tablet because it makes no sense to me. A long time ago, people would have a room in their house just to hold the books and references they needed. That became less useful when information was available on the network, but it has become useful again as the network information has become polluted and sometimes vanishes inexplicably. The key though is having an indexing system, which Evernote seems to be a good start at.
- dragontamer 13y ago
  Some of us wish for Tablets to be more than just a portable screen. Fortunately for those of us who wish to push the boundaries of computing, some companies are willing to go in that direction. Content Creation Example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCKWn1zjejE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCKWn1zjejE Surface Pro obviously, but the concept of a highly-accurate stylus has become standard in Galaxy Note and Galaxy Tab as well. Android now supports multiple users and multiple accounts (Windows8 and WinRT always supported this feature). There is no reason why Tablets _can't_ evolve into general purpose computing devices. It is simply a Human-computer interaction problem. Programming on a Tablet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XmxtIDWI_E http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XmxtIDWI_E AutoCAD has listed touch-support. The future of content creation can be revolutionized by tablets, if only we had open enough minds to see the potential. http://cadablog.blogspot.com/2013/03/whats-new-in-autocad-2014.html http://cadablog.blogspot.com/2013/03/whats-new-in-autocad-20...
  - 13y ago
ecocentrik 13y ago
Battery life is probably as important as size for merging the tablet and phone markets. My tablet is effectively an extended battery for my phone. I could probably use my phone for everything I do on my tablet, but if I did, I'd be charging my phone 2-3 times a day. As soon as the size gets more usable and battery life improves sufficiently, tablets will probably turn into a fringe device.
ecocentrik 13y ago
Battery life is probably as important as size for merging the tablet and phone markets. My tablet is effectively an extended battery for my phone. I could probably use my phone for everything I do on my tablet, but if I did, I'd be charging my phone 2-3 times a day. As soon as the size gets more usable and battery life improves sufficiently tablets will probably turn into a fringe device.
kailuowang 13y ago
His main analysis is this: "It comes down to size. The vast majority of the hundreds of millions of people who use tech every day are just fine with having two primary computing devices: One for your pocket and one for your desk. " And in his opinion Tablet is neither. My guess is that he hasn't extensively used a Nexus 7 tablet. It fits fine in my front and back pockets. I used it way more than my smartphone. And I rarely have the need to pick up my 10 inch tablet.
a-saleh 13y ago
Adding myself tove the crowd "still in love \w my tablet" :) My work laptop stays at work. At home, I have one windows machine, with steam and nothing else. Youtube, movies, articles, pdf-s, music ... all in my nexus7. I stilll even use my kindle for reading longer texts (20+ pages) Maybe the reason for all this, is that I am still in love with my nokia 3720c dumbphone :P Battery on standby for a week, water, dust and shock resistant. So in general, you are probably right, for most people in the near future, smart-phone will be their primary personal computing device and laptop their work-horse. But there will be people like me, wanting to have their computing capabilities more fine-grained.
emehrkay 13y ago
My 12 year old boy uses it as his main computing device despite having an iMac on his desk. Often times I'd walk in on him where he is reading wikipedia, watching youtube, or using it as a second screen while he plays video games. To him it is a computer and his computer is a small tv. I think it is a generation thing. edit: and it isn't just a brand/technology thing, he uses the Surface RT that we have in the same manner. Which leads to be believe that computing should be as mobile and suited to the task as possible.
tomrod 13y ago
I just wish things weren't so leggy on tablets. Netflix included.
acqq 13y ago
His "love affair" is over. I'm using iPad at this very moment and no I don't want it smaller. Just as light as possible. So my next will certainly be iPad Air.
gnicholas 13y ago
"PCs took a full three decades to reach market saturation, whereas tablets may have already topped off at the four-year mark." True, but this is probably due in part to the price differential—early computers were 2x to 10x the price of early tablets, so it's not surprising that tablets reached saturation faster. I do agree with the general gist of the article, as my aging iPad 2 (which I will probably replace with the next iPad Air) can attest to.
jblow 13y ago
As soon as flexible screens become a thing, your phone and your tablet become the same device; you just unfold it when you want a big screen. In light of this, the size argument being made in this article is not really meaningful in the medium-to-long term, unless these kinds of flexible screens never happen. (But they are being actively worked on, so.)
- craigvn 13y ago
  I think this is spot on. I am not sure how long it will take but there will be a big revolution in screens, like the CRT to LCD one, in the next 20 years and it will be around flexible and expandable displays. Possibly what we know consider to be a screen will be totally changed.
badman_ting 13y ago
No, I think it is just beginning. I bought an iPad in 2011 and didn't even really know why, mostly because I felt I should know what's going on with this new class of device. I ended up using it all the time, and still do (though I bought a new one). The phone is too small to use comfortably for more than a short while.
zalzally 13y ago
I'm really enjoying the healthy debate here. It's certainly a divisive topic with people seemingly very strong on either side.
mark_l_watson 13y ago
I mostly disagree with the article. True, I do watch Netflix on my Android Samsung Galaxy III, and it is nice, but it is nicer on an iPad mini (or full size iPad). I keep the markdown files for my book projects in Dropbox, and while I can read them and make small edits on my phone, writing is much nicer on my iPad mini - so much so that I very often write on my iPad instead of on my MacBook Air laptop. I don't have a separate data plan for my iPad, rather I use a mobile hotspot from my phone when necessary. Yeah, I am that cheap. My MBA, phone, and iPad cover my needs for work, reading, watching video. I would not want to be without any of them. I largely just use my MacBook Air (with a huge external monitor) for writing code - just about everything else I prefer to do on my two smaller devices.
theg2 13y ago
I just got my first tablet in the form of a Dell Venue Pro 8 and I absolutely love it but I think a large part of it has to do with the ability to run full apps and the fact its 7in form factor lets me put it in my pocket. Tablets used to refer to larger phones that ran the same apps but that ecosystem is hopefully changing.
brosco45 13y ago
He really likes to drop names.
Eleutheria 13y ago
My kids love it. So fuck adults and don't mess with our fun.
DasIch 13y ago
The problem with tablets is not that they are not useful, they are just not good enough, yet. They should be about as heavy as a sketch book, allow input as precise as a pen on paper and preferably be foldable. They need something like a filesystem that allows sharing documents between applications. Instead of folders I want documents organized by metadata: mimetype, a history with all times and locations at which I modified it and when I want to open one I want to see the ones I'm most likely to open right now based on whatever information the device has. Most importantly though integration with other devices needs to be better. I want no distinction between my notebook and my tablet when it comes to accessing data. I shouldn't have to worry about backups or the contents of my hard drive, the hard drive of any device should contain an operating system and a cache and everything else I want encrypted in the cloud. Switching from one device to the next should be seamless (as far as input methods allow.) As it stands tablets are glorified file viewers with some limited editing facilities. What a tablet should be is a sketchbook for everything digital.
johngalt 13y ago
It's easy to see that 5-10 years from now we will all be walking around with phablet style devices in the 5-7" form factor. Docking with a larger fixed display or external keyboard/mouse when needed. It's been in progress for years. Talk to non-tech people today and you'll find they live their lives on smartphones/tablets. Sure they keep an old XP machine around for when they need to type something lengthy or run some old software, but that's driven by necessity not desire.
rch 13y ago
My iPad does sit around at home, waiting for me to test out some new UI, but my Nexus 7 has replaced my phone altogether. I don't really make personal calls, but I do a ton of casual reading and email. While the phone is nice to have for the occasional call, the smaller form factor tablet works best for me day-to-day. If I could use a small Bluetooth headset to make calls through Google Voice, I'd happily ditch the phone forever.
polarix 13y ago
This may be accurate, for the most part, at least until voice recognition passes the turing test. Depending on when that happens, it's not clear whether we'll have input devices close enough to children's brains to bypass decorated-glass entirely.
nickbauman 13y ago
Not so fast. Tablets have yet to impact businesses that don't even use computers much. If you're in general contracting, a waitron, a delivery person, a trucker, an auto-mechanic, a repair tech, an oil-field worker and a host of other mostly paper-based or "non-computer" workflows, the tablet will eventually enter this area. The implications of this change are through-going and only barely begun. And it's mostly driven by cost / capability factors. Furthermore there are other businesses that are just getting started using the Tablet. http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/15/hardware-is-dead/ http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/15/hardware-is-dead/
10feet 13y ago
> We teamed up with HP, Toshiba, NEC and Fujitsu, all of whom spent millions alongside Microsoft, and failed to create a bona fide category at the time. Why? “Tablet PCs,” as they were known, required a stylus (versus today’s touch-interaction model), and more importantly, only had a few tablet-optimized apps. We now know that’s a recipe for disaster. Yeah, and even more importantly they cost $2000 to $3000, and were very big and heavy.
yodsanklai 13y ago
I really don't get why people like tablets. I gave it a try with an ipad air, but I sold it. There's nothing I can do on a tablet that I can't do more efficiently on my laptop. As soon as typing is involved, the laptop is much better. Even for things that don't involve using the keyboard, I prefer my laptop. The screen is much bigger and stays in place more easily. Really, I don't see how anyone that knows how to use a keyboard could prefer a tablet to a laptop. The only advantage I see is portability, and ease of use for technophobics. Well, maybe I'm getting old and can't adjust to new technology.
- lanna 13y ago
  Try using your laptop in bed, or in the toilet, or in the subway, the bus, the waiting room in the doctor's office...
  - yodsanklai 13y ago
    "Try using your laptop in bed" Actually, that's one place where I much prefer using my laptop. It's sitting on my belly, with the screen standing vertically. I just couldn't do the same with a tablet.
hosh 13y ago
Xerox PARC. "tabs, pads, and boards." They've experimented with these form factors. Back in the '90s. One thing they said back then, pads -- that is, tablets -- are not something you carried around as a personal device like your phone. It would be more like the tablets on Star Trek: The Next Generation. You left it in the room. You logged in with your credentials (using your tab, the phone; or I suppose now, it would be iBeacon). When you are done with the work, you left it in the room and go elsewhere. So you don't use it like a laptop or a phone. Duh. It also means that, at some point, we should see multi-user tablets where settings, files, etc. sync over the cloud, combined with sub-$99 tablets, that's when this kind of a workflow will start emerging. There's a similar romantic notion related to boards -- smart TVs. Eventually, I suspect the use-cases will converge on that old Xerox PARC research. It's when we start getting interactions among the three form factors we'll start to see some interesting things.
riffic 13y ago
tl;dr Gartner's trough of disillusionment.
zmmmmm 13y ago
I kind of agree and disagree. I think tablets are here to stay and will be the dominant form of computing device. As their price hits < $100 they are going to be everywhere. The problem is, they are going to be boring - glorified magazine readers. Their ultimate contribution to what we can do with our devices in terms of novelty is going to be incredibly marginal. Along the same lines, I think Apple has harmed the long term success for tablets by refusing to embrace a stylus (I seem to remember "if you see a stylus you failed" type remark?). After acquiring a Note 3 it truly transforms the device - it's the "other half" of interaction that I have been missing. I could never bring myself to type on a tablet in a meeting. Whether it's just a social construct or not, I don't know - but I can write without feeling rude, but not type. So many things I can sketch out with the "real" stylus but could never do with a capacitive version. I have realized that my Note3 is the perfect device for doing math. I mark up PDFs. I pull it out any time I need more accuracy than the touch interface will provide. I'm seriously contemplating now buying an 8" note just for the stylus function.
foohbarbaz 13y ago
"Our" affair is over? Gee, too bad my household does not know it yet and a 2 year old laptop has been demoted to kids machine for playing Minecraft... _Our_ love affair with a PC is over. Likely will never buy again.
SunboX 13y ago
After long time Smartphone user I bought a tablet last year for three reasons - and only these reasons: A browsing device for the Couch, a reader for the evening and a photo viewer (holiday photos aso.) I love it. Works great for these three things, better than a phone or notebook.
stevewilhelm 13y ago
Tablets are great for children and seniors to casually consume email, news, books, movies, and games.
the_watcher 13y ago
I really like my iPad a lot for second screen viewing. I think there is still a ton of untapped potential there (sports in particular could have all kinds of cool things built for tablets involving motion tracking). I really don't use it for anything else but movies when travelling.
blueskin_ 13y ago
I really didn't see much of the point in tablets. They're too big to be properly portable like a phone, needing some kind of case or bag, but lack the OS, real keyboard, and general power of a laptop. Being stuck between the two doesn't seem appealing even without their general lack of mobile data capability.
randomafrican 13y ago
what if sales have peaked not because don't buy new tablets but rather because people don't replace them that often ?
rdl 13y ago
I use my tablet (iPad 4 with LTE for $10/mo) for a fair number of specific tasks, but I prefer a laptop/desktop generally. It rocks on planes, as a car nav system in a rental car, for reviewing applications (...), for instapaper, for bathroom computing, for reading PDFs (although sometimes I use a Kindle DX), etc. Maybe I'm old, but using an iPhone 5S for reading long articles is kind of painful.

160 points by slackpad 13y ago

The initial tablet market struck me as a very boomer focused device, one that made computing easy for a limited subset of tasks. I think he's wrong that tablets have peaked. As the software and hardware on tablets catches up to the capability of a full laptop, they are a much more compelling device for use at home or at work. Content creation, software development and file management are still a challenge but these can be fixed. I really hope the Surface and derivatives catch on in the enterprise, because I'm tired of lugging a 7lb laptop to and from meetings.

pacaro 13y ago
My yoga 2 pro has completely allowed me to replace two devices. The only possible advantage a dedicated tablet has would be size/weight, but I've yet to encounter that in my purely anecdotal usage
andrewfong 13y ago
2-in-1 PCs are great, Windows 8 notwithstanding. I just got a Thinkpad Yoga and being able to work in tablet mode when I'm stuck in cramped seat on a train or plane is fantastic. I'm also encouraged by the return of pen-based digitizers. I know it's a small niche, but for designers and artists, it's quite nice.
loudmax 13y ago
I'm a Linux user and very much addicted to the CLI. For any kind of work, a tablet isn't really right for me. I'm getting by okay with two laptops at the office: An MBP that weighs at least 7 lbs and a 2.2 lb ThinkPad. All my work stuff is on my MBP which stays on my desk. I take my ThinkPad to meetings, and if I need to reference something off the MBP I simply ssh into it. That would be a pain without a keyboard. So being a Linux CLI guy puts me at something like 1% of computer users. I agree that the tablet content creation interface can be fixed for most of the rest of the 99%. I expect that soon the only distinction between a tablet and a laptop is whether or not the keyboard is attached.
- tluyben2 13y ago
  I am very much a Linux user and addicted to the CLI and my plethora of tools, doing heavy work (like compilation) on servers. I buy the lightest computing devices as I don't really need anything with a lot of processing power; so battery life and actual weight win it for me. I had a heavy MBP before I bought a Chromebook and I don't see me ever doing that again. As for tablets; I like to have them laying around for content consumption but for everything else I really do need a keyboard and I don't really know how that could be replaced. I tried the keyboards on tablets (including the surface 2) and they are a joke for coding imho.
- coldtea 13y ago
  If you're addicted to the CLI why the MBP? A MBA would serve you just as well, and be lighter.
  - emn13 13y ago
    Probably because until recently, only the MBP was retina - and that's a big advantage (to me).
    - sdegutis 13y ago
      I agree.
  - loudmax 13y ago
    Legacy, mainly. You're right, I'd be just as happy with an MBA or my ThinkPad and a bunch of server space. As a CLI user, that's an easy trade-off. I suspect it's slightly more difficult for GUI users to make the transition because applications are usually written with the expectation of running on a local machine. As the GUI moves to the web it will become irrelevant. I really liked the desktop/phone combo in the movie Her. The main character buys an "Operating System" that sort of takes over his desktop at home and at work and also his phone. I don't know that it's something we'd want to call an OS the way Windows or Linux is an OS, but there's a lot of sense to a user interface that follows you on whatever device you happen to be using.
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maxerickson 13y ago

I bought a tablet for travel because I don't really care if I have a smart phone or not. I didn't really think it would replace things with keyboards and I still really like it for travel. The real problem is that cross device integration is so awful, hopefully the future has us configuring environments instead of devices (environment there being the software I want to see when I look at a small touch screen or the software I want to see when I look at a large screen with a keyboard).

taternuts 13y ago
I think the battery life is the one thing tablets are still great for, if I traveled a lot I'd consider owning one for long media playback sessions a necessity

0xdeadbeefbabe 13y ago

My love affair with touch screens is over. What a coincidence.

JetSpiegel 13y ago
Mine has never begun. I don't feel lonely, though. I have a keyboard.
BlackDeath3 13y ago
I have to agree with that. We pretty much all grew up before touchscreens were widely available as they are now, and as such I think the allure of them was in their novelty. The more I use touchscreens, the more I realize how inefficient and inconsistent they tend to be (at least, the ones I've used).
- freehunter 13y ago
  I feel the opposite. Whenever I'm using a computer without a touch screen and the screen is close enough to touch (or in a convenient location to touch), I have to fight instinct to touch the screen. Sometimes it's just easier (for me at least) to jab your finger at the thing you want to click on than it is to move the mouse to it.
  - BlackDeath3 13y ago
    I think it's really context-sensitive. Some things work best with a touchscreen, I suppose. I do know one thing - I'd probably rather beat myself to death with a tablet than try to program (or type anything at all, for that matter) on it.
coldtea 13y ago
Well, aside from tablets and phones, touch screens are useless. You're not gonna hold your hand straight in the air for more than a 10 minute stretch.

mjt0229 13y ago

I never really got tablets - too big to be portable and crippled by the lack of usable input devices. My 11" Macbook Air is just about as portable as an iPad, but is way easier to use, not just for streaming, but even for coding, etc. Of course, I've been wrong about things before and I'm not really a typical consumer user, but I just can't imagine a future for tablets with phones getting as good as they are, and small laptops being as slim and powerful as they are.

grecy 13y ago
Have you ever seen a child use a tablet? It's mind-blowing to see a 3 year old use one better than their parents. I don't think tablets will ever replace laptops, but that's not the point of consumption is it. They'd rather you buy a laptop for "work" a tablet for "consumption" and a phone, and...
- geuis 13y ago
  Yes it is, but as you said, a 3 year old isn't trying to get work done. What we need to see is how the kids first using phones from 7 years ago are doing with tablets and their ilk now in school. That's your earliest cohort of 10 year olds first exposed to the iPhone.
  - ako 13y ago
    Yes, and watching tv or reading a book you are also not getting any work doen. What's the point? Computers are no longer just about getting work doen. For many, computers are more about entertainment and communication, than about work.
    - bphogan 13y ago
      I've long argued that we, as tech folks, are not the target for tablets. The target for tablets are the Facebook Messenger folks. the people who want to watch videos and surf the web, chat with others, etc. You know, the same folks Dell was able to con into paying $600 for a computer that needed GeekSquad to fix it every six months because computers are so unfriendly to non-technical people. Tablets, especially ones with curated app stores, solve that problem. And people who are not techies love that.

HillRat 13y ago

Not sure how a nearly 30% YOY increase in tablet sales for Q4 translates to a dead market, unless they thought tablets would end up as full replacements for existing systems. Few people are replacing their other computing devices for tablets, but obviously a large number of people see, and will continue to see, tablets as good secondary devices. I suspect, however, that replacement cycles for tablets will be longer than for phones (which cycle out on contracts) or PCs (driven by corporate platforming schedules). Anecdotally, I lug around a smartphone, laptop, iPad and Kindle, but I can collapse the last three into the iPad for a lot of daily nontechnical tasks. (Hell, I can even prototype Python on it.) It's not a necessary part of my kit, but I'll keep one around for convenience alone.

normloman 13y ago

Lots of sales people use it for presentations, since it weighs less than a laptop, but has a bigger screen than a phone. Also makes a great e-book reader. Definitely not a laptop replacement.

danmaz74 13y ago

My tablet gradually became my three-years-old daughter's tablet. I almost never miss it :)

CmonDev 13y ago

It's very good for gaming. It's a good device for your home.

bnolsen 13y ago

I like tablets, but for very limited uses. They excel, especially for casual puzzle type games that respond very well to touch. For light reading they work fine as well. Browsing the internet? Well not so great. Mobile versions of websites seem to be always wanting and a lot of web pages are too target rich making it way too easy to accidentally click on something like an advertisement or side bar thingy. And I spend too much time zooming pages and waiting for reflows as well. Overall a pretty irritating experience. Data input? hehe, yeah right.

dictum 13y ago

My love affair with the tablet isn't over: I love how it lets me browse the web, read books and magazines, and watch videos in bed after a long day. That's probably how most people use their tablets — secondary devices, mainly for entertainment. After a working day, I don't want to use a PC, and the tablet lets me use the web and other media comfortably, but I wouldn't try to actually use it for work beyond initially planning projects. It's much more human, for lack of a better word — more intimate, more ergonomic — than a PC for (browsing the web|reading ebooks or PDFs|watching videos|making video calls).

sjs382 13y ago
Agreed. I'll even go as far as saying that away from work, my Nexus 7 quickly became my primary device. I dread sitting down at the laptop if I'm away form the office. The existence of the tablet has (indirectly) made me more productive at work, too: Rather than reading articles that come through my RSS feed when I'm working (which is a vice of mine), I just add any interesting items to my Pocket queue, and read it that night (or later in the week) when relaxing at home. Not because I don't want to read the article right away (I usually want to)—but because I actually prefer to read on the tablet.
zipperhead 13y ago
Yes, and the superior battery life of a tablet enables this casual consumption very nicely.
NathanKP 13y ago
This is exactly how I use my tablet too. I use my computer all day writing code, so when its time to relax with some Netflix, or an ebook I grab my tablet instead. Its perfect for laying on the couch or in bed. A phone definitely works in that case as well, but the tiny screen isn't as nice for reading and watching video. Not to mention by the end of the day my phone is usually mostly dead and its time to put it on the charger for tomorrow. So trying to use my phone in bed while its attached to a charger is annoying. The tablet meanwhile is charged up (and usually lasts a full week for me between charges, even during heavy Netflix usage).

api 13y ago

I am not surprised at all: a crippled, jailed, feudalized device that is too large to be carried in your pocket like a phone but far too limited to replace a laptop. I don't think they'll go away. They're an acceptable "portable dumb terminal" for certain kinds of work or for people who only want web and e-mail and a few apps. They also really kick butt for point of sale terminals and similar kiosk applications.

zacinbusiness 13y ago

I use my iPad all the time. From writing documentation to taking notes on projects I'm working on. I also use it for wire framing designs and for editing and passing on documents when I get an email and am away from my computer. I also do these things with my iPhone, but the iPad makes it a little easier with the larger screen. So, some folks use them for one thing, and some folks use them for another thing (or not at all). That's the story for basically every product that exists....so.... In other words, re/code is trying to build up their content by using fluff stuff like this - polarizing and gets page views by inciting flame wars.

killertypo 13y ago

I read all my comics on my tablet device. it is the perfect size screen / interface. I have the same marvel/dc app on my iphone and it's not the same experience. It tries to be, but the real estate makes it impossible to enjoy in the same fashion.

taopao 13y ago

Why do things have to be boiled down into winner-take-all narratives? I feel that the public has no capacity for nuance anymore. Look, the tablet has its place - usually situations that don't require high-bandwidth HIDs such as keyboards. The computer user of the future will have many devices spanning many different form factors. It's OK.

gress 13y ago

This seems like a weirdly narrow experience to base writing off tablets in general on. It also is contradicted by the massive volume of android tablets being specifically sold as tv replacements. Seems like he's been deluded by taking numbers out of context.

LeicaLatte 13y ago

Media's love affair with tablets is probably over. They have tried everything and not able to continue/recreate the monopoly they enjoyed with paper. Not on the web. Not on tablets. For the rest of us, it is so getting started.

angryasian 13y ago

This is just a rehashing of the netbook. As phones get bigger and/or something else replaces the need of casual consumption in a different or more appealing form factor, we'll say bye to the tablet as well.

r00fus 13y ago
The original (OLPC-derived) netbook was a thing of beauty. Once Microsoft and Intel got their claws into it, it became a cheap PC with poor inputs that didn't do anything well (by design - an ARM/Linux netbook threatened the WinTel dominance of the day).

fidotron 13y ago

The more subtle point here about phablets being the death of tablets is, in my experience, dead on. People still addicted to their 7inch+ tablets simply haven't used a phablet. I spent last year being much more impressed by single purpose devices anyway. Stuff like the latest eink Kindles, the Chromecast and so on. Curiously they all follow the same push style of content delivery, where it is pushed from the network to the device for focused consumption, and I can't help thinking this is the future.

pessimizer 13y ago

I have an unshakable belief that the (iPad style) tablet market is almost completely driven by married men with young children at home, or who hide the fact that they masturbate from their wives.

jmspring 13y ago

My iPad is the my primary device for reading technical books, RFCs, and other PDFs. It is often an accessory to when I am working on my laptop. Rather than two different screens, one for development and one for reference info, the iPad fills that role. It is also typically what we use for watching movies at night while heading to bed -- we have a decent digital media library. I don't see the affair as being over, maybe the tablets people have are good enough for their current uses.

Zigurd 13y ago

The article is wrong in at least two ways: 1. The Bad Experience cited is with Windows tablets. This ignores how hard it is to move a non-touch system to tablets. 2. He cites Netflix "losing momentum" on tablets. If this was true for media use on tablets in general, Amazon would not be pouring as much effort as they are into tablets. Google has done a bad job marketing Android on tablets. Apple has done a great job with iPad. YMMV.

fpgeek 13y ago
> If this was true for media use on tablets in general, Amazon would not be pouring as much effort as they are into tablets. Amazon, unlike Netflix, is worried about being kicked out of the iOS ecosystem. Kindle (and all the other major eBook apps) already came close at least once. Unless Amazon was convinced that media use on tablets was going to collapse (not just plateau), they desperately need the deterrent and the insurance policy.

gopalv 13y ago

Some factor of "Everyone who wants one - has one" applies. And then there's this - http://thedoghousediaries.com/5608 http://thedoghousediaries.com/5608 Once you hit the "content consumption from toilet" first world problem, the rest of the market actually would like a smaller device with the same connectivity. That said, I'm a recent tablet user because with a Nexus7 and a Chromecast, my screen is actually big, 10 feet away and doesn't need me to hold it.

Yhippa 13y ago

Someone who is actually in the trenches can probably answer this but my guess is that a lot of the newest and hottest apps tend to be released for phones first and then later on a tablet version comes along. The lowest common denominator is going to be the phone since so many people have them and I have to pull it out to be able to use app X. It might not be available yet for my tablet or it is and it's not as feature-packed or as easy to use.

kleptco 13y ago

The author is right. No one wants to hold their computer for extended use. The phablet is the right compromise, it does everything a tablet does and more while still being light, small and always with you. Also, having 1 device is much less expensive and cumbersome than having 2.

jack-r-abbit 13y ago

I rarely use the keyboard on my laptop. The laptop is part of a larger setup that involves a larger external monitor (with the laptop screen being the secondary display) and a wireless keyboard and mouse. I would love it if the laptop was just a tablet "docked" to connect to the monitor and keyboard/mouse. Then I could easily undock the tablet and use it as a tablet when I wanted to. But then plug it back in for a more "traditional PC" feel. Obviously it needs to be powerful enough for me to get my work done... and it would need to run the apps I need to get my work done.

sethhochberg 13y ago
Interestingly enough, you've pretty much described Microsoft's Surface / Surface Pro. I think, debacle about the x86 vs ARM (Win RT) confusion aside, they're onto something with the form factor and expandability.
- jack-r-abbit 13y ago
  My current personal use laptop is less than a year old. I'm hoping by the time I need to replace it things will have settled down a bit with the Surface... or some other device that fits the description comes along.

daigoba66 13y ago

I got an iPad about 18 months ago. Since then I've not used a "PC" at home, with the exception of when I use my work's laptop for doing work (programming) at home. I do everything from the tablet: browsing the web, "social" stuff, paying bills, e-mail, etc.

tluyben2 13y ago

More and more people are switching to tablets only; almost all managers, sales people, account managers, project managers I know are not using tablets anymore but have iPads. Don't see it dying soon as these people don't need laptops and won't use laptops anymore. Then there is non professionals who all buy tablets instead of laptops; my neighbour who swore she would never buy 'a computer' now walks around with her E50 Android tablet all the time. I think sales will only go up.

analog31 13y ago

I have a desktop PC, a notebook, a tablet, and a phone. All four of them were getting long of tooth -- an inevitability given the rapid pace of obsolescence. Which one did I upgrade, and why? My phone, for two reasons: 1. I needed to upgrade my phone in order to sign up with a new provider of phone service. None of the other devices are tethered to a single (invariably evil) service provider for mainstream use. 2. Inefficiency and obsolescence such as sluggish performance carried the highest price on the phone, because my need for the phone occurs in awkward situations such as getting from A to B in my car, or deciding which product to buy in the store. If these are widespread patterns, then the result will be that the slickest, newest computers in the typical household will be phones.

bhauer 13y ago

Although I own three tablets, my love affair with the tablet as it exists today never really took off the same way it did for so many consumers. The primary reason is that I do not believe that tablets should be first-class computing devices. Tablets, and in my opinion, the entirety of what we today call "mobile," should be subservient to a general computing model of personal omnipresent applications [1]. Put more concretely, I should only have one e-mail application, one web browser, one IM client, one media player, and all of my devices—wired, wireless, wifi, cellular, and everything in between—should be views upon those singular applications and nothing more. So although I have three tablets because I am a technology addict, I simultaneously do not want them because I do not want additional first-class computing devices in my life. If each additional tablet I purchased were just another input and output device—an additional view—added to my arsenal, I would buy as many as I see worthwhile to have scattered throughout my house and office. But as it is, each additional tablet (or phone or computer) is a first-class device with first-class expectations for my attention. Every device wants to be babied with application installations, updates, configuration, local data, and the works. Today's plain cloud is a meager, sticky, and altogether phony solution to this problem. It's interesting to see this and an article about decentralizing the Internet (mischaracterized as "the web") as the top two articles at HN presently. I recently ranted [2] that Mr. Nadella should seize the opportunity to take Microsoft into a fundamentally different direction than what everyone is telling him, including himself ("mobile first, cloud first"), rather focusing on users and applications first. Particular views of applications, such as mobile or desktop or living room, are secondary matters. I'd like to see Microsoft step up and become the only tech titan to stop following today's mobile-first, cloud-first model and swing the pendulum back to self-control with technology serving users, not companies. [1] http://tiamat.tsotech.com/pao http://tiamat.tsotech.com/pao [2] http://tiamat.tsotech.com/microsoft-carve-your-path http://tiamat.tsotech.com/microsoft-carve-your-path

return0 13y ago
That's a good point, and that's why the plain Kindle is more appealing to me. The fact that it syncs automaticall, and it's dumb (only good for one thing) makes it more useful.
pedalpete 13y ago

misuba 13y ago

The article's right that most people want one small device and one big one. It's just wrong that the big one most people want is a laptop or PC.

mathattack 13y ago

I was an early adopter of the iPad too, but now get more use out of a very tiny MacBook Air. The laptop slimmed down to meet it, rather than the phone moving up. For me the key has been the ability to type.

giantrobothead 13y ago
Agreed. Any device that limits my ability to communicate effectively is not for me. Also, as an avid CLI user, a tablet is next to useless for me. I don't really feel like buying a bluetooth keyboard for a tablet just to optimize text input.
- mathattack 13y ago
  I think the iPad is most efficient as a 1 way device. Great for reading and viewing, but not good for responding. Hence the airplane use call. Laptops have gotten convenient enough (and strong enough batteries) to compete though.
  - giantrobothead 13y ago
    I can see the utility of the tablet as a browsing/reading/listening device. However, I am a bit of a curmudgeon and will clutch my laptop to myself as long as possible.

bluedino 13y ago

I love my iPad Mini. I don't regret moving to it from a regular iPad at all. Now, only if Safari didn't crash once an hour...

merrua 13y ago
The crashing is very annoying and very very common.

josephlord 13y ago

Watch video on a TV, read on a tablet and write on a keyboard. Mobile when I'm out or only have one hand free. It isn't quite that simple but it isn't far off.

Grue3 13y ago

This is a product, the demand for which was singlehandedly created by one company. Before Apple, nobody wanted a tablet. And nobody needed a tablet. But Apple-fans would have bought anything if Steve Jobs said so. And then other people thought they wanted one too. It's much like De Boers and diamonds. Fortunately, tech fads pass rather quickly.

lechevalierd3on 13y ago

I've never cheated on my MacBook Air...

jarjoura 13y ago

What does this have to do with desktops? This article is saying that as people apparently migrate to larger phones they will then find tablets unnecessary. I think there is room in the world for people to have both a small one-hand useable phone coupled with a larger multipurpose tablet. There is also room for people to buy devices like the Sony 6" phablet that works both as a phone and a "tablet."

alexeisadeski3 13y ago

For my personal use, the Macbook Air line and Kindle have destroyed any non-game tablet utlity.

INTPenis 13y ago

My N7 is used for exactly these things, alarm clock, iTunes remote, Telldus remote (this controls lights and power outlets around the apartment) and browser for when my computer is being used by someone else or when I'm playing a game on it. So it's not worthless, but I can easily imagine how I lived before it. :)

appliedluck 13y ago

I wonder how much of a factor the decline of middle class spending is affecting the tablet consumer space. A phone is a more necessary gadget. A tablet could be considered a luxury item. Maybe people just can't fit them in their budget? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-is-steadily-eroding-just-ask-the-business-world.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-...

pswenson 13y ago

I think there is some truth to the article, but not that much. Yeah, 5" devices are a nice size and make people somewhat less likely to reach for their tablet when reading. But is a 5" screen going to replace a textbook? or a magazine? or a kiosk? are people going to want to watch a movie on their phone? It's all of the above - phones, tablets, laptops. Depends on what you are doing. But fact is, many are now using tablets instead of laptops. Tablets are simply a more pleasant experience for causal use. And a lot of computer use is casual - reading, surfing the web, games, email, facebook. So IMO tablets trend up in the long term, laptops trend down. But neither die.

marquis 13y ago

Doesn't have kids..

dragontamer 13y ago

On the contrary. Tablets are finally beginning to get good. Android Tablets support multiple users. Active stylus support is becoming natural (Surface Pro, Dell Venue Pro, Galaxy Note and Galaxy Tab Note). Tablets are beginning to treat HTML5 pages more consistently. Its still a while out before Tablets become amazing, but I'm going to be grabbing one soon (Dell Venue Pro 8 + Active Stylus) because they're finally good enough to be on my radar.

clarky07 13y ago

This is silly. Expectations for phones and tablets are crazy, specifically when talking about apple. I read things daily that say apple is done for talking about both phones and tablets. The market share numbers aren't THAT important when we are talking about numbers as big as we are. In the mid 90's, when Microsoft "Won" and Apple lost the global PC market was ~50 million. Apple alone sold more tablets than that last year, and they sold more phones than that last quarter. They don't have to sell 200 million tablets and phones per quarter. Apple is going to die or get crushed because Android has more market share, and tablets aren't going away either. The only reason tablet sales haven't gone to the moon like some people predicted, is that they misunderstood the replacement cycle. It's not something that needs to be replaced every year or two like a phone. My iPad 2 is still just fine. I would love to have an iPad air because it is nicer, but the functionality is pretty much the same. In another year or two it might get to the point where i want/need to upgrade. But that is 4-5 year replacement cycle, not 1-2.

ChuckMcM 13y ago

There is an interesting commonality here, everyone "grew up" with computers. Tablets aren't computers, they are smart displays, and that dissonance seems to grind sometimes. The Kindle/Nook concept of a tablet is pretty straightforward, keep it as cheap as possible and let be your portal into a bunch of pre-created content. I used my iPad and my Nook HD this way, I've got 45 books I carry around in my messenger bag that used to sit on the shelf at home. I've got over a 150 datasheet/appnote/technical manuals in PDF form which works ok on "large" (>= 9") screens. I've got Evernote to index stuff and 1dollarscan to convert things that I can't purchase in a compatible format. I've got a few thousand hours of music I like which I can stream to headphones to keep the noise of the world out. That is the stuff tablets are really good at. I've got a Lenovo laptop to do code development and computing on. I don't bother trying to do that stuff on a tablet because it makes no sense to me. A long time ago, people would have a room in their house just to hold the books and references they needed. That became less useful when information was available on the network, but it has become useful again as the network information has become polluted and sometimes vanishes inexplicably. The key though is having an indexing system, which Evernote seems to be a good start at.

dragontamer 13y ago
Some of us wish for Tablets to be more than just a portable screen. Fortunately for those of us who wish to push the boundaries of computing, some companies are willing to go in that direction. Content Creation Example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCKWn1zjejE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCKWn1zjejE Surface Pro obviously, but the concept of a highly-accurate stylus has become standard in Galaxy Note and Galaxy Tab as well. Android now supports multiple users and multiple accounts (Windows8 and WinRT always supported this feature). There is no reason why Tablets _can't_ evolve into general purpose computing devices. It is simply a Human-computer interaction problem. Programming on a Tablet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XmxtIDWI_E http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XmxtIDWI_E AutoCAD has listed touch-support. The future of content creation can be revolutionized by tablets, if only we had open enough minds to see the potential. http://cadablog.blogspot.com/2013/03/whats-new-in-autocad-2014.html http://cadablog.blogspot.com/2013/03/whats-new-in-autocad-20...
- 13y ago

ecocentrik 13y ago

Battery life is probably as important as size for merging the tablet and phone markets. My tablet is effectively an extended battery for my phone. I could probably use my phone for everything I do on my tablet, but if I did, I'd be charging my phone 2-3 times a day. As soon as the size gets more usable and battery life improves sufficiently, tablets will probably turn into a fringe device.

ecocentrik 13y ago

kailuowang 13y ago

His main analysis is this: "It comes down to size. The vast majority of the hundreds of millions of people who use tech every day are just fine with having two primary computing devices: One for your pocket and one for your desk. " And in his opinion Tablet is neither. My guess is that he hasn't extensively used a Nexus 7 tablet. It fits fine in my front and back pockets. I used it way more than my smartphone. And I rarely have the need to pick up my 10 inch tablet.

a-saleh 13y ago

Adding myself tove the crowd "still in love \w my tablet" :) My work laptop stays at work. At home, I have one windows machine, with steam and nothing else. Youtube, movies, articles, pdf-s, music ... all in my nexus7. I stilll even use my kindle for reading longer texts (20+ pages) Maybe the reason for all this, is that I am still in love with my nokia 3720c dumbphone :P Battery on standby for a week, water, dust and shock resistant. So in general, you are probably right, for most people in the near future, smart-phone will be their primary personal computing device and laptop their work-horse. But there will be people like me, wanting to have their computing capabilities more fine-grained.

emehrkay 13y ago

My 12 year old boy uses it as his main computing device despite having an iMac on his desk. Often times I'd walk in on him where he is reading wikipedia, watching youtube, or using it as a second screen while he plays video games. To him it is a computer and his computer is a small tv. I think it is a generation thing. edit: and it isn't just a brand/technology thing, he uses the Surface RT that we have in the same manner. Which leads to be believe that computing should be as mobile and suited to the task as possible.

tomrod 13y ago

I just wish things weren't so leggy on tablets. Netflix included.

acqq 13y ago

His "love affair" is over. I'm using iPad at this very moment and no I don't want it smaller. Just as light as possible. So my next will certainly be iPad Air.

gnicholas 13y ago

"PCs took a full three decades to reach market saturation, whereas tablets may have already topped off at the four-year mark." True, but this is probably due in part to the price differential—early computers were 2x to 10x the price of early tablets, so it's not surprising that tablets reached saturation faster. I do agree with the general gist of the article, as my aging iPad 2 (which I will probably replace with the next iPad Air) can attest to.

jblow 13y ago

As soon as flexible screens become a thing, your phone and your tablet become the same device; you just unfold it when you want a big screen. In light of this, the size argument being made in this article is not really meaningful in the medium-to-long term, unless these kinds of flexible screens never happen. (But they are being actively worked on, so.)

craigvn 13y ago
I think this is spot on. I am not sure how long it will take but there will be a big revolution in screens, like the CRT to LCD one, in the next 20 years and it will be around flexible and expandable displays. Possibly what we know consider to be a screen will be totally changed.

badman_ting 13y ago

No, I think it is just beginning. I bought an iPad in 2011 and didn't even really know why, mostly because I felt I should know what's going on with this new class of device. I ended up using it all the time, and still do (though I bought a new one). The phone is too small to use comfortably for more than a short while.

zalzally 13y ago

I'm really enjoying the healthy debate here. It's certainly a divisive topic with people seemingly very strong on either side.

mark_l_watson 13y ago

I mostly disagree with the article. True, I do watch Netflix on my Android Samsung Galaxy III, and it is nice, but it is nicer on an iPad mini (or full size iPad). I keep the markdown files for my book projects in Dropbox, and while I can read them and make small edits on my phone, writing is much nicer on my iPad mini - so much so that I very often write on my iPad instead of on my MacBook Air laptop. I don't have a separate data plan for my iPad, rather I use a mobile hotspot from my phone when necessary. Yeah, I am that cheap. My MBA, phone, and iPad cover my needs for work, reading, watching video. I would not want to be without any of them. I largely just use my MacBook Air (with a huge external monitor) for writing code - just about everything else I prefer to do on my two smaller devices.

theg2 13y ago

I just got my first tablet in the form of a Dell Venue Pro 8 and I absolutely love it but I think a large part of it has to do with the ability to run full apps and the fact its 7in form factor lets me put it in my pocket. Tablets used to refer to larger phones that ran the same apps but that ecosystem is hopefully changing.

brosco45 13y ago

He really likes to drop names.

Eleutheria 13y ago

My kids love it. So fuck adults and don't mess with our fun.

DasIch 13y ago

The problem with tablets is not that they are not useful, they are just not good enough, yet. They should be about as heavy as a sketch book, allow input as precise as a pen on paper and preferably be foldable. They need something like a filesystem that allows sharing documents between applications. Instead of folders I want documents organized by metadata: mimetype, a history with all times and locations at which I modified it and when I want to open one I want to see the ones I'm most likely to open right now based on whatever information the device has. Most importantly though integration with other devices needs to be better. I want no distinction between my notebook and my tablet when it comes to accessing data. I shouldn't have to worry about backups or the contents of my hard drive, the hard drive of any device should contain an operating system and a cache and everything else I want encrypted in the cloud. Switching from one device to the next should be seamless (as far as input methods allow.) As it stands tablets are glorified file viewers with some limited editing facilities. What a tablet should be is a sketchbook for everything digital.

johngalt 13y ago

It's easy to see that 5-10 years from now we will all be walking around with phablet style devices in the 5-7" form factor. Docking with a larger fixed display or external keyboard/mouse when needed. It's been in progress for years. Talk to non-tech people today and you'll find they live their lives on smartphones/tablets. Sure they keep an old XP machine around for when they need to type something lengthy or run some old software, but that's driven by necessity not desire.

rch 13y ago

My iPad does sit around at home, waiting for me to test out some new UI, but my Nexus 7 has replaced my phone altogether. I don't really make personal calls, but I do a ton of casual reading and email. While the phone is nice to have for the occasional call, the smaller form factor tablet works best for me day-to-day. If I could use a small Bluetooth headset to make calls through Google Voice, I'd happily ditch the phone forever.

polarix 13y ago

This may be accurate, for the most part, at least until voice recognition passes the turing test. Depending on when that happens, it's not clear whether we'll have input devices close enough to children's brains to bypass decorated-glass entirely.

nickbauman 13y ago

Not so fast. Tablets have yet to impact businesses that don't even use computers much. If you're in general contracting, a waitron, a delivery person, a trucker, an auto-mechanic, a repair tech, an oil-field worker and a host of other mostly paper-based or "non-computer" workflows, the tablet will eventually enter this area. The implications of this change are through-going and only barely begun. And it's mostly driven by cost / capability factors. Furthermore there are other businesses that are just getting started using the Tablet. http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/15/hardware-is-dead/ http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/15/hardware-is-dead/

10feet 13y ago

> We teamed up with HP, Toshiba, NEC and Fujitsu, all of whom spent millions alongside Microsoft, and failed to create a bona fide category at the time. Why? “Tablet PCs,” as they were known, required a stylus (versus today’s touch-interaction model), and more importantly, only had a few tablet-optimized apps. We now know that’s a recipe for disaster. Yeah, and even more importantly they cost $2000 to $3000, and were very big and heavy.

yodsanklai 13y ago

I really don't get why people like tablets. I gave it a try with an ipad air, but I sold it. There's nothing I can do on a tablet that I can't do more efficiently on my laptop. As soon as typing is involved, the laptop is much better. Even for things that don't involve using the keyboard, I prefer my laptop. The screen is much bigger and stays in place more easily. Really, I don't see how anyone that knows how to use a keyboard could prefer a tablet to a laptop. The only advantage I see is portability, and ease of use for technophobics. Well, maybe I'm getting old and can't adjust to new technology.

lanna 13y ago
Try using your laptop in bed, or in the toilet, or in the subway, the bus, the waiting room in the doctor's office...
- yodsanklai 13y ago
  "Try using your laptop in bed" Actually, that's one place where I much prefer using my laptop. It's sitting on my belly, with the screen standing vertically. I just couldn't do the same with a tablet.

hosh 13y ago

Xerox PARC. "tabs, pads, and boards." They've experimented with these form factors. Back in the '90s. One thing they said back then, pads -- that is, tablets -- are not something you carried around as a personal device like your phone. It would be more like the tablets on Star Trek: The Next Generation. You left it in the room. You logged in with your credentials (using your tab, the phone; or I suppose now, it would be iBeacon). When you are done with the work, you left it in the room and go elsewhere. So you don't use it like a laptop or a phone. Duh. It also means that, at some point, we should see multi-user tablets where settings, files, etc. sync over the cloud, combined with sub-$99 tablets, that's when this kind of a workflow will start emerging. There's a similar romantic notion related to boards -- smart TVs. Eventually, I suspect the use-cases will converge on that old Xerox PARC research. It's when we start getting interactions among the three form factors we'll start to see some interesting things.

riffic 13y ago

tl;dr Gartner's trough of disillusionment.

zmmmmm 13y ago

I kind of agree and disagree. I think tablets are here to stay and will be the dominant form of computing device. As their price hits < $100 they are going to be everywhere. The problem is, they are going to be boring - glorified magazine readers. Their ultimate contribution to what we can do with our devices in terms of novelty is going to be incredibly marginal. Along the same lines, I think Apple has harmed the long term success for tablets by refusing to embrace a stylus (I seem to remember "if you see a stylus you failed" type remark?). After acquiring a Note 3 it truly transforms the device - it's the "other half" of interaction that I have been missing. I could never bring myself to type on a tablet in a meeting. Whether it's just a social construct or not, I don't know - but I can write without feeling rude, but not type. So many things I can sketch out with the "real" stylus but could never do with a capacitive version. I have realized that my Note3 is the perfect device for doing math. I mark up PDFs. I pull it out any time I need more accuracy than the touch interface will provide. I'm seriously contemplating now buying an 8" note just for the stylus function.

foohbarbaz 13y ago

"Our" affair is over? Gee, too bad my household does not know it yet and a 2 year old laptop has been demoted to kids machine for playing Minecraft... _Our_ love affair with a PC is over. Likely will never buy again.

SunboX 13y ago

After long time Smartphone user I bought a tablet last year for three reasons - and only these reasons: A browsing device for the Couch, a reader for the evening and a photo viewer (holiday photos aso.) I love it. Works great for these three things, better than a phone or notebook.

stevewilhelm 13y ago

Tablets are great for children and seniors to casually consume email, news, books, movies, and games.

the_watcher 13y ago

I really like my iPad a lot for second screen viewing. I think there is still a ton of untapped potential there (sports in particular could have all kinds of cool things built for tablets involving motion tracking). I really don't use it for anything else but movies when travelling.

blueskin_ 13y ago

I really didn't see much of the point in tablets. They're too big to be properly portable like a phone, needing some kind of case or bag, but lack the OS, real keyboard, and general power of a laptop. Being stuck between the two doesn't seem appealing even without their general lack of mobile data capability.

randomafrican 13y ago

what if sales have peaked not because don't buy new tablets but rather because people don't replace them that often ?

rdl 13y ago

I use my tablet (iPad 4 with LTE for $10/mo) for a fair number of specific tasks, but I prefer a laptop/desktop generally. It rocks on planes, as a car nav system in a rental car, for reviewing applications (...), for instapaper, for bathroom computing, for reading PDFs (although sometimes I use a Kindle DX), etc. Maybe I'm old, but using an iPhone 5S for reading long articles is kind of painful.