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> because it's far less likely you'll fail ten times in a row. So, keep trying Stated like that, that sounds like an example of a Monte Carlo fallacy. Sometime
by heelhook 13y ago
> because it's far less likely you'll fail ten times in a row. So, keep trying
Stated like that, that sounds like an example of a Monte Carlo fallacy. Sometimes "just keep trying" is not sound advice but wishful thinking.
- sillysaurus2 13y agoThe Monte Carlo fallacy is believing that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future. This isn't an instance of that. If the goal was to flip tails in a coin toss, and I said "Keep flipping! You're bound to get tails within ten flips," then there's only a 1 out of 1024 chance that I'd be mistaken. Success isn't as simple as a coin toss, but sometimes the best strategy is to try all possibilities as quickly as possible. This was how Carmack succeeded, for example. There is no alternative but to try; best get used to the idea of trying many times before succeeding.
- lifeisstillgood 13y agoAdded to which we assume the OP is learning - improving his coin flipping ability - such as putting the heads on top before flipping anyway. Other advice would be to put your failures up here and accept some (pretty painful) critques. Then OP could learn faster ...
- mguillemot 13y agoWell, if you take lessons from your failures, you end up in a better position after each one. So it's definitely not like flipping a coin with independant outcomes.