4 ms·

An awful lot of PV break-even analyses assume the cost of grid electricity will remain constant. Hawaii's electricity is oil-generated, and I suspect oil prices

by foxylad 13y ago

An awful lot of PV break-even analyses assume the cost of grid electricity will remain constant. Hawaii's electricity is oil-generated, and I suspect oil prices will continue to rise rapidly in the next decade.

CamperBob2 13y ago
...and I suspect oil prices will continue to rise rapidly in the next decade. That was my thinking when I bought a bunch of oil ETFs a few years ago. Oops.
- neltnerb 13y ago
  I mean, she did say "decades". http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EER_EPD2F_PF4_Y35NY_DPG&f=D http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EE... It's still rising faster than inflation, and on an island like Hawaii fuel oil is more expensive due to the shipping costs. Kind of surprised they don't use geothermal preferentially to solar, but I suppose that unlike Iceland they have a better mix of solar resources available there.
  - matthewbadeau 13y ago
    Geothermal was debated back in the late 80's but was protested against as source of heat (lava) is a god (Pele) in Native Hawaiian culture. It is especially controversial since the proposed geothermal site was on Native Hawaiian homelands.
    - stcredzero 13y ago
      Is there a native organization that could profit from this?
      - matthewbadeau 13y ago
        If I remember correctly, the group didn't want any money from the proposal. They just didn't want the drilling to be done at all. The group battling the geothermal proposals believed that the drilling would damage their god and absorbing the heat to make energy was absorbing the life force of their god. I don't know this subject very well, so if you want more information you should look up what the Pele Defense Fund has done.
        CamperBob2 13y ago
        Isn't religion awesome? I know that as enlightened individuals we're supposed to respect all creeds, beliefs, and faiths, but frankly, I doubt there is anything that anyone can say to me that will make me respect the people who have (apparently successfully) blocked alternative energy production efforts because it will drain the power of their lava god. If it's true that I share more DNA with these people than I do with a chimpanzee, it's strictly a fluke of evolution. (Edit: To be fair, some Googling suggests there are some more tangible environmental concerns with geothermal energy in Hawaii, but propitiating Pele appears to be a very real part of their argument as well. If we laugh at and ignore their legitimate concerns because of the 'Pele' argument, that's just as unfortunate an outcome as one in which religious nutters stop a worthwhile project in its tracks.)
    - sitkack 13y ago
      The native Hawaiians were only on Hawaii for what 800-1400 years before Cook got there? This has more to do with Hawaiian sovereignty from white dudes than religious beliefs. I have been to Hawaii and many natives would rather bite their own hand off than touch a haole.
dredmorbius 13y ago
The bet that oil prices will increase as supplies diminish discounts the feedback on demand. Oil is useful because it can be used to produce value. That value production starts at the margin, and there's a lot more you can do with $10/bbl oil than you can with $100/bbl oil, and more with that than $1000/bbl oil (and in case you question that, it's about the production cost per barrel of canola-oil derived biodiesel). Which is to say: oil prices might not simply increase with scarcity. But price drives what sources are feasible for extraction. Early oil didn't cost much to extract, and its price was low. As oil's become harder to find and pull from the ground, its extraction costs (and minimum market price) in crease. Much of the extraction at the margin is only feasible because of high oil prices. Ultimately you may reach a level at which the global economy is caught between oil that's too expensive to buy, and a market price that's too low to support exploration, development, and extraction. Gail Tverberg's explored this dynamic in some detail: http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/07/01/inflation-deflation-or-discontinuity/ http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/07/01/inflation-deflation-or-... Her principle thesis is that it's going to be financial and economic effects rather than energy per se which will spell the endgame.

by foxylad 13y ago

CamperBob2 13y ago

...and I suspect oil prices will continue to rise rapidly in the next decade. That was my thinking when I bought a bunch of oil ETFs a few years ago. Oops.

neltnerb 13y ago
I mean, she did say "decades". http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EER_EPD2F_PF4_Y35NY_DPG&f=D http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EE... It's still rising faster than inflation, and on an island like Hawaii fuel oil is more expensive due to the shipping costs. Kind of surprised they don't use geothermal preferentially to solar, but I suppose that unlike Iceland they have a better mix of solar resources available there.
- matthewbadeau 13y ago
  Geothermal was debated back in the late 80's but was protested against as source of heat (lava) is a god (Pele) in Native Hawaiian culture. It is especially controversial since the proposed geothermal site was on Native Hawaiian homelands.
  - stcredzero 13y ago
    Is there a native organization that could profit from this?
    - matthewbadeau 13y ago
      If I remember correctly, the group didn't want any money from the proposal. They just didn't want the drilling to be done at all. The group battling the geothermal proposals believed that the drilling would damage their god and absorbing the heat to make energy was absorbing the life force of their god. I don't know this subject very well, so if you want more information you should look up what the Pele Defense Fund has done.
      - CamperBob2 13y ago
        Isn't religion awesome? I know that as enlightened individuals we're supposed to respect all creeds, beliefs, and faiths, but frankly, I doubt there is anything that anyone can say to me that will make me respect the people who have (apparently successfully) blocked alternative energy production efforts because it will drain the power of their lava god. If it's true that I share more DNA with these people than I do with a chimpanzee, it's strictly a fluke of evolution. (Edit: To be fair, some Googling suggests there are some more tangible environmental concerns with geothermal energy in Hawaii, but propitiating Pele appears to be a very real part of their argument as well. If we laugh at and ignore their legitimate concerns because of the 'Pele' argument, that's just as unfortunate an outcome as one in which religious nutters stop a worthwhile project in its tracks.)
  - sitkack 13y ago
    The native Hawaiians were only on Hawaii for what 800-1400 years before Cook got there? This has more to do with Hawaiian sovereignty from white dudes than religious beliefs. I have been to Hawaii and many natives would rather bite their own hand off than touch a haole.

dredmorbius 13y ago

The bet that oil prices will increase as supplies diminish discounts the feedback on demand. Oil is useful because it can be used to produce value. That value production starts at the margin, and there's a lot more you can do with $10/bbl oil than you can with $100/bbl oil, and more with that than $1000/bbl oil (and in case you question that, it's about the production cost per barrel of canola-oil derived biodiesel). Which is to say: oil prices might not simply increase with scarcity. But price drives what sources are feasible for extraction. Early oil didn't cost much to extract, and its price was low. As oil's become harder to find and pull from the ground, its extraction costs (and minimum market price) in crease. Much of the extraction at the margin is only feasible because of high oil prices. Ultimately you may reach a level at which the global economy is caught between oil that's too expensive to buy, and a market price that's too low to support exploration, development, and extraction. Gail Tverberg's explored this dynamic in some detail: http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/07/01/inflation-deflation-or-discontinuity/ http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/07/01/inflation-deflation-or-... Her principle thesis is that it's going to be financial and economic effects rather than energy per se which will spell the endgame.