This is a really well thought out post and mostly correct. But there is some logic missing here. 1. Risk vs Reward. 2. Someone's motivation to sell isn't nece

This is a really well thought out post and mostly correct. But there is some logic missing here. 1. Risk vs Reward. 2. Someone's motivation to sell isn't necessarily directly tied to a belief that the stock won't go up. It could be a need for liquidity, risk evaluation, etc. Therefore your choice could very well be a smart one. In essence no, "winner" and "loser" scenario as inferred. 3. There are indeed markers that indicate (and only indicate) the likely movement of a stock based on trends. So you can in fact take a somewhat educated guess as to when you are 'Yves or Cecil', as Ed puts it.