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We already have. You think the CO2 in the atmosphere is going to go away by itself? The only question is how long we're in for the ride. The most pessimistic b
by Daishiman 13y ago
We already have. You think the CO2 in the atmosphere is going to go away by itself?
The only question is how long we're in for the ride. The most pessimistic but fact-based theories speculate thirty years before the increase in methane and CO2 emissions produces a 4+ degree increase in temperature and begins the truly profound changes that could result in the death of billions.
The rest is just speculation; depending on how big the exponential curve is (that's the problem with exponentials, small variations in the parameters have huge long-term impact), it's anywhere between 30 and 300 years.
Now, if we get the more drastic theories out of the way or if we pretend that the melting of the Siberian peat bogs won't matter (that is, nothing that I wrote about is particularly outrageous scientifically), then we're looking at 80 years before the ocean's Ph drops to the point where a substantial amount of molluscs simply die off because of their inability to incorporate calcium to their shells.
The thing is, the only thing that can save us at this point is incredible developments in energy technology (10x battery storage capacities, fusion power, more politically acceptable nuclear) coupled with a global reduction in per-capita consumption on a massive scale.
None of the superpowers in the world are willing to drop the current model of the consumer society, and fusion is, thus far, just a dream, so in most ways we're at the mercy of the climate now.
There is a very real possibility that we'll be the last generation before the Earth becomes a profoundly different, far less ecologically diverse, desert planet, at least as far as the tropics go.
- yummyfajitas 13y agoAccording to our 95% accurate climate simulations, we can also use geoengineering and inject reflective particles into the stratosphere, Pinatubo style. The scientific case for this is stronger than the case that climate change is caused by CO2, since we have multiple natural experiments rather than simply one (specifically, multiple large volcanos).
- Daishiman 13y agoI'm in favor of pretty much anything that can help, but releaseing soot into the atmosphere isn't free, and particulate pollution impacts our health in many other ways, not to mention that the reduction of sunlight has some very well-known effects on plant life.
- rdl 13y agoThe awesome thing about climate engineering is it isn't even "we". It's "one guy who skips buying a new Global Express and spends that money doing it."
- parasight 13y agoI hope your are wrong. I'm going to be father soon. Bringing a child into a doomed world is an incredible depressing thought. Maybe we should stop using our collective IQ developing web/mobile apps and start thinking about saving this world or how to delay doomsday.
- bananacurve 13y agoDoom sells and fuels consumerism. The plane crash gets reported while thousands land safely unmentioned. Allow me to take a contrary tack. Humans are now in a position to find and divert a world ending impact event. The slope of progress has never been steeper and we survived the biggest threat, global nuclear war. We will prevail with quiet aplomb and all that will be deemed too uninteresting to be reported.
- dmd 13y ago> survived the biggest thread, global nuclear war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Doomsday_Clock_graph.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Doomsday_Clock_graph.svg seems to disagree.
- Daishiman 13y ago...or not. The phenomena of modern times are exponential in nature and difficult to predict, but past success is no guarantee of future survival. Nuclear war is peanuts compared to climate change; this is an issue several orders of magnitude worse.
- bananacurve 13y ago>Nuclear war is peanuts compared to climate change; this is an issue several orders of magnitude worse. Hyperbole undermines veracity.
- hrkristian 13y agoWhy the focus on CO²? We're finding new potential disasters every other month. There's really no telling what CO² will do to the planet, even though we can guesstimate the result. What about the jellyfish boom? The consequences for that are pretty straight forward. What about the immunization of various diseases? We're already resorting to burning crops and land.