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Poll: What's your target price for 1 BTC?
Since BTC the new high of $575.21111 on Mt. Gox what's your thoughts of a target price for BTC?
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- wfunction 13y agoTarget for when? When the entire world is using it, or are you talking about the nearer future?
- achalkley 13y ago> When the entire world is using it Sure. When it hits it's adoption plateau - whether that's just techies, financial institutions or everyone who would. What's the price you think is "reasonable".
- vijayboyapati 13y agoThe increasing price is a reflection of an increasing reservation demand for bitcoin - which is another way of saying bitcoin is increasing in "moneyness". Bitcoin's market capitalization is about 5B right now. Gold's is about 7trillion. On a technical level bitcoin is superior as a money to gold, so I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin attained some large fraction of gold's market capitalization, eventually. E.g., it would not surprise me if bitcoin, or some other digital currency, increased in market cap to, say, 500B over the long term (i.e., less than 10% of gold's market cap, but 100x higher than it is today), giving it a price of approximately $50,000 per bitcoin.
- exit 13y agohow long is "long term"? 30 years?
- Oculus 13y agoI'd imagine hundreds. Financial institutions are some of the slowest moving things out there.
- SwellJoe 13y agoWhich is what makes BTC so disruptive. You don't need traditional financial institutions, once there is a market for goods and services. It's only the smallness of the BTC market right now that makes it necessary to buy in from and cash out into state-sponsored money.
- vijayboyapati 13y agoI honestly don't know. The world is changing so fast now that it wouldn't surprise me if this happened in 10 years, or even 5 years. As context, just 6 years ago there was no iphone. 8 years ago there was no Youtube. 9 years ago there was no Google maps. 10 years ago there was no Facebook. I like to think how much these things have already changed the world, and my life, and how none of them were around just a decade ago. I'm very excited to see what the world will look like 10 years hence. edit: a word
- themusicgod1 13y agoThe good news that whatever comes next is probably going to be easily purchasable via bitcoin since bitcoin makes purchasing things online so damn easy. Even if you are forced to take something of a haircut you'll still probably wind up ahead if you choose to take that haircut in a modern currency like bitcoin than a legacy one like USD.
- davidjohnstone 13y ago"it would not surprise me if bitcoin, or some other digital currency" This is what makes me pessimistic about Bitcoin as long term value store. If a new digital currency that was a significant improvement on Bitcoin was developed (a Bitcoin v2, if you like), I'd expect most of the money to shift over to the new currency eventually. The fact that there is a lot of infrastructure for Bitcoin built already would mean Bitcoin would continue to be used for sometime, but its value would drop dramatically if people see the new currency as the future of digital currencies. (Tip: if you want to do this, you need to make big technical improvements, not just tweaking Bitcoin like Litecoin and all the others do, and you need to do a big marketing effort to make people believe in it.)
- retrogradeorbit 13y agoTarget to buy, or to sell? I voted $100-499, because MY target price is the price at which I will BUY back in (already sold all my BTC holdings) and that price point I have is in this $100-499 range.
- dangero 13y agoAnother good question is at what point will the US government and other countries declare bitcoin illegal? If bitcoin becomes widely used it will threaten the power of major governments. I cannot see a scenario where the US or any other major country allows that to happen.
- a3voices 13y agoIt is highly unlikely that the U.S. government will declare Bitcoin illegal, due to this breaking news story: "U.S. Agencies to say Bitcoins Offer Legitimate Benefits" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/u-s-agencies-to-say-bitcoins-offer-legitimate-benefits.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/u-s-agencies-to-say...
- dangero 13y agoI'm talking more long term. Right now bitcoin is not a threat or a legitimate replacement for dollars. If and when bitcoins become a normal every day option for purchases, that story could really change. For example, one of the major problems with bitcoin for a government is that they cannot as easily trace taxes on bitcoin trading. If I could do all my local purchasing with bitcoin, I assume the benefit would be that I would not pay sales tax. That's a huge issue for governments if bitcoins ever become ubiquitous.
- legutierr 13y agoGovernments wouldn't have to declare bitcoin explicitly illegal. Instead, governments would simply make them impossible to exchange for official currency by denying bitcoin providers access to the banking system (by closing bank accounts, defining bitcoin as "high risk for money laundering"). Under such a scenario, governments could also prohibit banks themselves from transacting in bitcoins. In such an event, if governments were then to enforce the requirement that any income earned in bitcoin be paid as taxes in official currency, holders of bitcoin would find themselves liquidating non-bitcoin assets in order to pay their tax bill.
- Afforess 13y agoBe Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful -Warren Buffet I'm not touching bitcoin while there is this kind of hype around it...
- sliverstorm 13y agoYou make an excellent point, as the public gets more bullish on BTC the end may be quickly approaching... On the other hand, a couple hundred bucks is a small price to pay for the chance that BTC could explode another couple orders of magnitude. In the end, my indecisiveness on the matter will lead to laziness determining my strategy, i.e. letting the BTC I have ride.
- Xcelerate 13y ago> On the other hand, a couple hundred bucks is a small price to pay for the chance that BTC could explode another couple orders of magnitude. This is how I look at it. How much money will I make in a lifetime? Am I really going to miss a few hundred dollars for something that could become revolutionary? We've never seen something quite like Bitcoin before, so it's really hard to predict what will happen.
- Afforess 13y agoThat sounds like every penny-stock investor ever.
- dangrossman 13y agoI don't have super high confidence BTC will survive in the mainstream more than a few years. It's too easy to shut it out by putting pressure on banks not to open accounts for the companies running exchanges. [1] I had bought some BTC long ago for a few dollars a coin, and spent most of it on domain names and other purchases at sites that started taking it, just to understand the ecosystem. I had my own wallet, tried some cloud wallets and both MtGox and Coinbase. I sold what was left a few days ago in the $400s/BTC. That'll cover my Christmas gifts for family this year. 1: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/15/bitcoin-companies-and-entrepreneurs-cant-get-bank-accounts/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/15/bitcoin-c...
- yeukhon 13y agoI am not sure if that's the case: I think banks and government are starting to enjoying this new competition. If there is a room for new investment and new way to generate tax revenue, they two will go forward with Bitcoin. The adoption might take a couple years to mature but I am sure they are all looking at it (Congress is already planning to regulate bitcon at some point as a bill, and government agencies like FBI is targeting at deep web which is fueled by bitcoin now). I do however agree that bitcoin can't be a long term investment. Bitcoin is a short-term investment. You should buy and sell as soon as a target price is up.
- Aqueous 13y agoThe companies running exchanges have already been shut out and are currently doing just fine without bank accounts. The main thing a bank offers you is security of your assets; they have vaults for their dollar and BitCoin reserves. The other thing about financial institutions is that if there is an investment opportunity that gives them the possibility of making a ton of money they will take it. As soon as they see that they can make money off of BitCoin they will welcome the exchanges with open arms. I would have agreed that it wouldn't survive the mainstream if there was a danger of a serious attempt by the United States, the EU or China to ban its use. But it appears that government agencies are smiling on BitCoin, and both the United States government and the Chinese government appear to be embracing it. I suspect because if it becomes the world reserve currency it neutralizes the advantage that both parties have in manipulating financial markets (China by not allowing its currency to float and the US by, well, bailing out its financial system every time it leverages itself to the hilt and crashes which sends ripples through the world banking system.) The US and China want to neutralize the others' ability to manipulate their economies through monetary policy, and BitCoin gives them that opportunity.
- TylerE 13y agoQuoting Mt. Gox prices == lawl. Seriously, there is NO liquidity in that market.
- Oculus 13y agoLow hundreds makes sense to me. Everything else to me screams it's just hype/bubble.
- SwellJoe 13y agoOn what basis? What sets the value of a BTC, for you?
- miguelrochefort 13y agoThat's extremely arbitrary. That's just a psychological barrier. In January, many thought that $15 was pretty high price. In March, many thought that $30 was a pretty high price. In April, many thought that $250 was a pretty high price. Today, many think that $500 is a pretty high price. Your claim is probably just as valid as someone claiming that Bitcoin to be worth $0.01 a piece.
- ekianjo 13y agoThere's virtually no limit as to where it could go, since it is driven by demand and perceived value. As long as there will be a large amount of people who see value/utility in Bitcoin in the short/mid/long term, its value will continue to increase. Keep in mind that for now, Bitcoin has almost zero utility. The day when Bitcoin becomes easier to use/to exchange/etc..., its value is likely to increase way further.
- fishtoaster 13y agoAssuming it reaches pretty widespread use, an interesting (if extremely back-of-the-envelope) number might be the world's money supply divided by peak bitcoin (21 million). That is to say, if all the world's money were replaced by bitcoin right now, that's about how much value each bitcoin would have to cover. I'm to lazy to track this down for the world, but a quick search indicates that the US M2 money supply is about 10.5 trillion. Replacing that with bitcoin would require each bitcoin to be worth $500,000.
- throwaway9848 13y agoMakes the $1M+ target votes all the more absurd.
- clarky07 13y agoYeah I suspect the only way bitcoin gets to $1 Million is if a load of bread is several thousand.
- gibybo 13y agoM2 is probably not the right number to use. Bitcoin will have an M2 far greater than 21 million. It's the M0 of Bitcoin that is fixed to 21 million. But the world money supply is also much higher than just the US money supply.
- saosebastiao 13y agoMy priors are as follows: 98% chance of $0, 2% chance of > $10m.
- alste780 13y agoSo your expected value is $200K. You should buy.
- saosebastiao 13y agoI'll offer you a game: A fair coin, heads you win $2^n (where n is the number of coin flips) and get another coin flip, tails you pay me $1,000,000 and get no more coin flips. There are bounds to the rationality of expected value theory.
- alste780 13y agoI don't understand. In your game, my expected value is very bad (negative). So I wouldn't play it.
- saosebastiao 13y agoIncorrect. In my game, the expected value is infinitely good. You just have to keep flipping heads consecutively. The break even is after 20 consecutive heads.
- 3pt14159 13y agoNo, you misunderstand mathematics. Just as 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + ... only equals 2, the odds of break even is not at 20 consecutive heads. The expected values are as follows: See this gist: https://gist.github.com/zachaysan/7603526 https://gist.github.com/zachaysan/7603526
- steven2012 13y agoWith this level of volatility, no one would be using BTC for anything except for pure speculation. Who would dare purchase anything for 1 BTC when the value of that BTC could go up 10% the next day? When there is no inherent use of something other than pure speculation, then it will end badly. This is 21st century tulip bulbs, but I cheer on anyone who has the balls to jump in and make money on BTC while there's money to be made. But holding on long term is seriously a fool's game, this is a trading instrument, not something with any long term value.
- ziadbc 13y agoYou could just as well say that your dollar lost 10% against bitcoin in a day, who would dare buy something with a dollar with it fluctuating so much so often.
- dllthomas 13y agoExcept my rent and my paycheck are fluctuating 10% in bitcoin, and 0% in dollars.
- Kronopath 13y agoBecause with dollars I can go and buy a loaf of bread today and a loaf of bread tomorrow, and be assured that it'll still be the same price.
- jmduke 13y agoIn that scenario, you'd want to spend as many dollars as you have since you think they're going to rapidly depreciate in value.
- thejosh 13y agoAhhh the days where 1 domain was selling for 10 btc, and I thought "what a waste".
- moe 13y agoI'm always amused when I come across comments like this. Yes, bitcoin could be our tulip bulbs. Or history might not be repeating this time and we might actually be looking at something new that is here to stay. Nobody knows, I wonder why so many people have that reflex to pretend they do.
- hrasyid 13y agoIs it possible to do something like a short on bitcoins?
- dllthomas 13y agoArguably, those selling pre-paid contracts to run miners for you (and to a lesser degree, those selling machines) are shorting bitcoins. I've heard tell that there exist more derivative-y derivatives, but I've been assuming the counterparty risk is unacceptable.
- SwellJoe 13y agoI don't think it's possible to predict. Nothing like Bitcoin has ever happened before. If it works, and if it remains the leading cryptocurrency for a few years, the upside is damned near limitless (I see a comparison to gold...but gold is such tiny percentage of the worlds transactions, and it sucks compared to the efficiency of Bitcoin). I can imagine people who would never consider gold (me, for example), using Bitcoin for everything. I'm trying to visualize situations that would make me stop dealing in BTC (my companies both accept BTC now), and it pretty much boils down to: The government makes it illegal and puts stiff penalties on its use. I'd, obviously, have to stop accepting it for my businesses. But, it would be disastrous for the US economy to lose this innovation, so I'm betting it won't happen. The other variable that is difficult to predict is other cryptocurrencies. They dilute the market, but not by a lot, so far. If a truly superior competitor to Bitcoin came along, it might dethrone BTC, and replace it...leaving BTC vastly less valuable. Finally, if BTC gets broken. i.e. double spend becomes possible, mining exploits, etc. that can't be fixed without destroying existing coins...that would also cause a massive crash. I suspect we're past the point of that being a significant risk (so many eyes looking for holes, we'd probably see if by now). So, I'm betting it's got a very big upside still.
- dllthomas 13y ago"double spend becomes possible" s/possible/practical/
- alste780 13y agoI think bitcoin is only starting to gain wider adoption. There are many indicators that the currency still has a long run up: * If you look at the numbers, there are today between 400K and 500K people in the world using bitcoin, which is a very small fraction of the population * A new bitcoin exchange in China, the world's most populous country, has opened and offers traders 0% fees * India, a country with more than a billion people, still does not have a major bitcoin exchange * The bitcoin protocol has been around for more than 4 years and has been reviewed by some of the best developers in the world. Many people are comparing the current run-up to the April bubble. The market today is much more fragmented. There are many, many more players, and thousands of cash-rich investors waiting on the sidelines for a small correction in price action to buy in. This alone would prevent an all-out sell-off. Others point to how easily it is for one government to shut down bitcoin, by putting pressure on banks to close bitcoin exchange accounts. To do that, they would need a legitimate reason, which they don't have — and this will become more difficult as more legitimate merchants adopt bitcoin, especially the larger ones. If that does happen though, exchanges can relocate their accounts off-shore. Bitcoin is still very small. The market cap is ~$5B, which is the size of a small company. For a currency that can be used by anyone anywhere in the world, that seems a little... undervalued. Some of the above price targets may seem crazy, but if you compare that growth to the growth experienced by Apple or Amazon over the past few decades, it starts making sense. And bitcoin isn't a company; it's an international currency, so its growth potential is even higher. My price target is $50K/BTC.
- heifetz 13y agothe winkovoss twins will make more money on bitcoin than on facebook. Both are house of cards, and ultimately not worth anything.
- tilenius 13y agoBitcoin is gaining demand as a store of wealth. Given that BTC is limited in quantity, the value of 1 BTC is equal to the amount of wealth people want to store / # of BTC and the later is capped at 21M at least in the intermediate term as I understand it. If there's demand to store $1 trillion of wealth in BTC, and let's say BTC supply is 20M at that point (keeps that math simple, LOL) then the price per BTC would be $50,000. Is $1 trillion high or low? Well, as a point of comparison, there is about $8 trillion of wealth stored in gold. The largest bank in China has assets of just under $3 trillion. The largest US bank, $2.3 trillion. So $1 trillion stored in Bitcoin is a lofty but attainable goal, IMHO. Thus I think we may see price stabilization in the tens-of-thousands of dollars per bitcoin. While $1M+ seems enticing, it would imply something like $20 trillion of wealth stored as bit coin which would dwarf any bank or even gold, so I think that is unlikely. One of my favorite charts/metrics is to look at the "market cap" of Bitcoin (not the price per coin). This gives you the read of how much wealth is stored in BTC. It's worth sanity checking that vs. other things. https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap Right now it feels like there's a long way up, but again I'd probably peg the $50K range for a long-term target. I've publicly tweeted a price target for 1 BTC to be worth more than 1 oz of gold within the next two years though. But at the rate it's growing, I'm tempted to revise the BTC / gold crossover point to within the next year.