4 ms·

I assume this means the market expects Amazon to make more money (a lot of money) in the future.

by 3825 13y ago

rottyguy 13y ago
Yep, I get that. But they IPO'd in 1997. Again, not to detract, and in fact I'm amazed by how they've been able to compete both on the Brick & Mortar stage and Digital Services stage. I've just never seen a company given such love/leniency for so long by Wall St.
- adventured 13y ago
  On Wall Street, the fake love often turns to a company being out of favor quickly (with both directions being equally irrational, in the overvaluing and then undervaluing). Indeed, the less fundamentals you have propping you up, the more likely this is to eventually happen, and happen hard. That exact scenario has played out numerous times with Netflix, for example. Amazon's valuation is almost purely an emotional basis, as all future returns are being pulled forward to the extent that they're overvalued and the calculations about their future earnings expectations are correct. Is Amazon worth $50 billion? $100b? $168b? That's an emotional judgment today, as they have no profits and little history of profitability, and if you want to speculate on tomorrow... well if their valuation keeps bubbling up, they'll soon catch Walmart, which has $17 billion in annual profit (meaning it may only take... 20 years or so for Amazon to fully realize that market value via profitability). Amazon is going to be an excellent short at the end of this stock market bubble, they'll lose half their value on the down swing (my opinion). However keep in mind, this is not a company that has always been loved by Wall Street. For most of its life, it has been hated by Wall Street. If you run an average price from early 2003 through the end of 2008, the stock was essentially flat lined for five years. And obviously it was viewed with near universal disgust after the dotcom bubble imploded, and the stock cratered to the $5's after 9/11. Amazon.Toast and all that.
  - bennyg 13y ago
    It's a better business idea for Amazon to build and invest in the company than it is to go profiteering right now. How valuable would a company be if it could get same day deliveries anywhere in America? In Europe? In China? All of the world? One of these days Amazon is going to stop building as much and their profits are going to shoot through the roof.
    - phinnaeus 13y ago
      Yes, that is bet that every Amazon investor is making.

I assume this means the market expects Amazon to make more money (a lot of money) in the future.

by 3825 13y ago

I assume this means the market expects Amazon to make more money (a lot of money) in the future.

Yep, I get that. But they IPO'd in 1997. Again, not to detract, and in fact I'm amazed by how they've been able to compete both on the Brick & Mortar stage and Digital Services stage. I've just never seen a company given such love/leniency for so long by Wall St.

adventured 13y ago
On Wall Street, the fake love often turns to a company being out of favor quickly (with both directions being equally irrational, in the overvaluing and then undervaluing). Indeed, the less fundamentals you have propping you up, the more likely this is to eventually happen, and happen hard. That exact scenario has played out numerous times with Netflix, for example. Amazon's valuation is almost purely an emotional basis, as all future returns are being pulled forward to the extent that they're overvalued and the calculations about their future earnings expectations are correct. Is Amazon worth $50 billion? $100b? $168b? That's an emotional judgment today, as they have no profits and little history of profitability, and if you want to speculate on tomorrow... well if their valuation keeps bubbling up, they'll soon catch Walmart, which has $17 billion in annual profit (meaning it may only take... 20 years or so for Amazon to fully realize that market value via profitability). Amazon is going to be an excellent short at the end of this stock market bubble, they'll lose half their value on the down swing (my opinion). However keep in mind, this is not a company that has always been loved by Wall Street. For most of its life, it has been hated by Wall Street. If you run an average price from early 2003 through the end of 2008, the stock was essentially flat lined for five years. And obviously it was viewed with near universal disgust after the dotcom bubble imploded, and the stock cratered to the $5's after 9/11. Amazon.Toast and all that.
- bennyg 13y ago
  It's a better business idea for Amazon to build and invest in the company than it is to go profiteering right now. How valuable would a company be if it could get same day deliveries anywhere in America? In Europe? In China? All of the world? One of these days Amazon is going to stop building as much and their profits are going to shoot through the roof.
  - phinnaeus 13y ago
    Yes, that is bet that every Amazon investor is making.