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Facebook is Doomed: Forrester Says Ads Tell a Sad Story
- adventured 13y agoFacebook isn't doomed, they're going to end up like Yahoo, in my opinion. Granted some consider that worse than death. Their core product is going to grow stale and begin to erode. Younger demographics will abandon the uncool service in favor of the latest platforms. And there will always be a new, cooler service for young demographics to join instead of the network where their parents hang out. The dominance Facebook once enjoyed will peak and fracture. People don't stop using Google because it's boring (which it has been for a long time, it's a search engine after all). People will however never start using Facebook in the first place if it's lame. I'd argue we're going to see a lot of that in the next five years, as the first teen generation to have a wide adoption of smart phones comes through, with tons of good apps to choose from. And to the extent that younger users sign up for Facebook, they'll use it a lot less. Five or six years from now, Facebook will be a slow growing, very mature social network. They'll be profitable, and Wall Street will be bored, and will give them a drastically lower multiple (leaving their stock not worth much more than it is today; $4b or $5b in profit * 20 to 30 multiple). It'll probably stick around in that stagnant shape much like Yahoo has, for a very long time.