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> This tremendous interest – with over 19 million unique visits to date to HealthCare.gov– confirms that the American people are looking for quality, affordable

by cdoxsey 13y ago

> This tremendous interest – with over 19 million unique visits to date to HealthCare.gov– confirms that the American people are looking for quality, affordable health coverage, and want to find it online. Sadly the system can only work if healthy people sign up. This disaster of a website has made it so that only the most desperate of people will eventually sign up, thus ensuring the inevitable collapse of the whole system.

ssharp 13y ago
Isn't the point of the OP that they are actively working on fixing the site? I don't see how being active in repairing broken parts of the site is any indication on "inevitable collapse". There is no indication that these will be long term problems.
- bpodgursky 13y ago
  The post is referencing a different problem. This is the scenario described: 1) since the exchanges can't discriminate on pre-existing conditions, many people with expensive pre-existing conditions in need of treatment will sign up. 2) because a high percentage of the new customers to the new plans need expensive treatments, insurance companies are forced to raise the rates on the new plans to cover costs 3) after seeing the higher insurance rates, healthy people quit the plan since their expected healthcare costs are lower 4) repeat steps 2 and 3 until very few people can both afford to be in the plan and have very pressing healthcare needs.
  - icebraining 13y ago
    It's an insurance death spiral [1]. NPR's Planet Money talked about it last month [2]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_(insurance) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_(insurance) [2] http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/09/30/227468495/one-key-thing-no-one-knows-about-obamacare http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/09/30/227468495/one-key-...
- schaub435 13y ago
  Have you ever been involved in large complex applications? They're not pretty and does not simply involve "repairing broken parts".
- schaub435 13y ago
  Have you ever been involved in large complex applications? They're not pretty and does not simply involve "repairing broken parts".
powertower 13y ago
> confirms that the American people are looking for quality, affordable health coverage, and want to find it online. They are, except they're not finding it. I'm not sure how much longer they are going to be able to spin this once people start inputing their info, and getting back rate shocks instead of what they expected. http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/09/25/double-down-obamacare-will-increase-avg-individual-market-insurance-premiums-by-99-for-men-62-for-women/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/09/25/double-... If you are making more than 15-25k/year (after which there is little or no subsidies), you're going to pay about 2-4x the rate you would of paid before Obamacare was enacted. Male, healthy, young? What cost you $40-$100 before, is now $300/month (and mandated by law). And that's just the lowest level/plan. If you want something good, you're now paying $600-1000/month. Older, wiser, richer? What cost you $8k/year is now $15k/year. I checked my rates today, and was very surprised by it all. But I guess it kind of makes sense, the system will only work if the young and the healthy are required to pay. My problem is that pay is not really what anyone would call "affordable". It's going to be intresting how this all plays out. Edit: to the downvoters... Go ahead, input your info into the system or just use your zipcode + age at ehealthinsurance. I'm not making these numbers up. I don't mind the idea of universal coverage, but I do mind being lied to.
- acabal 13y ago
  This is FUD. Anecdotally, I managed to browse coverage on the healthcare.gov site a few days ago, and the cheapest plan offered is about what I currently pay for individual health insurance, but a much, much, better plan than what I have. (In fact I got a letter saying my plan was so bad that Obamacare made it illegal, and yet the cost compared to a much better Obamacare plan was about the same.) Obamacare might not have gotten everything right (single payer is the only good solution IMHO), and I too have doubts as to whether it will be a net plus in the long run, but your post is just FUD and not helping anyone.
  - 001sky 13y ago
    I'm not sure this is good 'analysis'. The entire premise is for a certain subset of the population to subsidize universal coverage. The US Supreme Court backed the legislation under this rationale. It is by design a 'synthetic' tax increase. The problem for everyone is that this is not saving anyone money on a net basis. The original purpose/goal of universal healthcare was to achieve the extension of coverage with a net synergy to the US Fed. budget (which picks up the tab for the uninsured). And this will be a failure if the risk-pool is not of proper metric. There is a story in the NYT today that details this. The system’s sustainability depends on getting enough healthy people to sign up, he pointed out, and if they don’t then insurers “will have to raise everyone’s premiums,” which “could create what actuaries call a ‘death spiral’: Rising premiums prompt people to drop out, causing premiums to increase even more.” https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6581817 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6581817

by cdoxsey 13y ago

ssharp 13y ago

Isn't the point of the OP that they are actively working on fixing the site? I don't see how being active in repairing broken parts of the site is any indication on "inevitable collapse". There is no indication that these will be long term problems.

bpodgursky 13y ago
The post is referencing a different problem. This is the scenario described: 1) since the exchanges can't discriminate on pre-existing conditions, many people with expensive pre-existing conditions in need of treatment will sign up. 2) because a high percentage of the new customers to the new plans need expensive treatments, insurance companies are forced to raise the rates on the new plans to cover costs 3) after seeing the higher insurance rates, healthy people quit the plan since their expected healthcare costs are lower 4) repeat steps 2 and 3 until very few people can both afford to be in the plan and have very pressing healthcare needs.
- icebraining 13y ago
  It's an insurance death spiral [1]. NPR's Planet Money talked about it last month [2]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_(insurance) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_(insurance) [2] http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/09/30/227468495/one-key-thing-no-one-knows-about-obamacare http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/09/30/227468495/one-key-...
schaub435 13y ago
Have you ever been involved in large complex applications? They're not pretty and does not simply involve "repairing broken parts".
schaub435 13y ago
Have you ever been involved in large complex applications? They're not pretty and does not simply involve "repairing broken parts".

powertower 13y ago

> confirms that the American people are looking for quality, affordable health coverage, and want to find it online. They are, except they're not finding it. I'm not sure how much longer they are going to be able to spin this once people start inputing their info, and getting back rate shocks instead of what they expected. http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/09/25/double-down-obamacare-will-increase-avg-individual-market-insurance-premiums-by-99-for-men-62-for-women/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/09/25/double-... If you are making more than 15-25k/year (after which there is little or no subsidies), you're going to pay about 2-4x the rate you would of paid before Obamacare was enacted. Male, healthy, young? What cost you $40-$100 before, is now $300/month (and mandated by law). And that's just the lowest level/plan. If you want something good, you're now paying $600-1000/month. Older, wiser, richer? What cost you $8k/year is now $15k/year. I checked my rates today, and was very surprised by it all. But I guess it kind of makes sense, the system will only work if the young and the healthy are required to pay. My problem is that pay is not really what anyone would call "affordable". It's going to be intresting how this all plays out. Edit: to the downvoters... Go ahead, input your info into the system or just use your zipcode + age at ehealthinsurance. I'm not making these numbers up. I don't mind the idea of universal coverage, but I do mind being lied to.

acabal 13y ago
This is FUD. Anecdotally, I managed to browse coverage on the healthcare.gov site a few days ago, and the cheapest plan offered is about what I currently pay for individual health insurance, but a much, much, better plan than what I have. (In fact I got a letter saying my plan was so bad that Obamacare made it illegal, and yet the cost compared to a much better Obamacare plan was about the same.) Obamacare might not have gotten everything right (single payer is the only good solution IMHO), and I too have doubts as to whether it will be a net plus in the long run, but your post is just FUD and not helping anyone.
- 001sky 13y ago
  I'm not sure this is good 'analysis'. The entire premise is for a certain subset of the population to subsidize universal coverage. The US Supreme Court backed the legislation under this rationale. It is by design a 'synthetic' tax increase. The problem for everyone is that this is not saving anyone money on a net basis. The original purpose/goal of universal healthcare was to achieve the extension of coverage with a net synergy to the US Fed. budget (which picks up the tab for the uninsured). And this will be a failure if the risk-pool is not of proper metric. There is a story in the NYT today that details this. The system’s sustainability depends on getting enough healthy people to sign up, he pointed out, and if they don’t then insurers “will have to raise everyone’s premiums,” which “could create what actuaries call a ‘death spiral’: Rising premiums prompt people to drop out, causing premiums to increase even more.” https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6581817 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6581817