3 ms·
"95% uncertainty interval 48,000–751,000" I understand the value in trying to quantify this, but it's difficult to really conclude anything useful when your up
by bpodgursky 13y ago
"95% uncertainty interval 48,000–751,000"
I understand the value in trying to quantify this, but it's difficult to really conclude anything useful when your upper and lower confidence intervals vary by 15x
- Brakenshire 13y agoI agree, although I feel like it gives a slightly better feel of the uncertainties to look where that figure came from: > The wartime crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 PY (95% UI 3.74–5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the 2.89 ((95% UI 1.56–4.04) death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war. By multiplying those rates by the annual Iraq population [43], we estimate total excess Iraqi deaths attributable to the war through mid-2011 as about 405,000 (95% UI 48,000–751,000).