5 ms·

Universities will be 'irrelevant' by 2020, Brigham Young professor says

37 points by ca98am79 17y ago

TrevorJ 17y ago
Universities will have to change, certainly, in order to respond to the ways students are learning but there is still a need for some sort of institutionalized vetting process (Read: diploma) for many types of careers. Providing an employer a list of the lectures you listened to on youtube isn't going to cut it if you are going into the medical field or if you want to design bridges or airplanes.
noelchurchill 17y ago
Going to a more prestigious and expensive institution isn't just about the diploma anyway. It's a 4 year long networking event where you build relationships with people that will help you for the rest of your life. That's something that can't be replaced by virtual classrooms and listening to course material on your ipod.
- kylec 17y ago
  Couldn't technology also replace, or at least substantially undercut, the networking as well? Granted, it's not the same as face-to-face interaction, but I would say that social networking through the internet can provide many of the same benefits that college does.
  - Retric 17y ago
    I don't think getting drunk while chatting online is going to build the same sort's of bonds.
    - kylec 17y ago
      That's not quite what I meant. Maybe it's exclusive to programmers, but newsgroups, blogs, and sites like HN, GitHub, StackOverflow, and Twitter all serve to allow someone to distinguish themselves and be recognized by their peers. If networking simply means getting drunk and chatting, online or no, then I fail to see how that's helpful as a career-builder.
- enra 17y ago
  Universities don't have monopoly on networking. Yes it's easy to network while you're all students but it's also quite random. Probably only a handful people of those early networks will be any use for you since people tend to go different ways. It's actually more effective to find your own area and network there.
  - IsaacL 17y ago
    It's not just the networking; it's the status you get from going to such an institution, especially if it's 'elite'. I guessing there are relatively few 18-year-olds who consider the networking potential of university, wheras lots probably go as it's the thing they're expected to do. I'm a student now, and a lot of my friends don't seem to have learning as their main priority, in fact I'm not sure what their priority is. Thus, even if this guy's ideas do provide a better learning experience, it's not like people will abandon uni for them.
- donaldc 17y ago
  Going to a more prestigious and expensive institution isn't just about the diploma anyway. It's a 4 year long networking event where you build relationships with people that will help you for the rest of your life. Has this effect been quantified? I've heard this repeated over and over again, but I am skeptical that it would be the deciding factor in the success of a very capable person. (It might well be the deciding factor for a less capable person.) None of the people I know who went to expensive private universities got their current job through a college-related connection, though I work in the tech industry, which may be biasing the results. But I think the bigger point is, once online classes are regarded as every bit as educational and valid as in-person classes, going to a more prestigious and expensive institution will no longer be about the (perceived better) education and the networking, but only about the networking. This may be a harder sell, both for prospective students, and for the image of the institution in the wider world.
evgen 17y ago
Science labs will all be virtual? Yeah, right. Sometimes you need to get your hands dirty and reading about it or watching it does not provide the same experience. This guy seems to be really in-love with computer-mediated education, but seems to have a big blind spot regarding the experiences it will never provide and the weaknesses inherent in the medium. The whole process of higher-education will change significantly in the next ten years, but not so much that the university will disappear, become irrelevant, or even be unrecognizable to anyone familiar with its current form. File this one under "futurist with a book or contracting gigs to sell..."
- buugs 17y ago
  I can see some degrees becoming virtual, computer science may be one, but things like those based on history or other less interactive environments may be perfect for virtual learning however as a student for an engineering degree I would no way have learned anywhere near as much online than interaction with labs and the interactive environment with professors (asking questions/correcting/furthering understanding).
- heed 17y ago
  I know the comments below illuminate some good examples, but what experiences specifically do you feel can never be replaced by a virtual environment? I agree that it is not quite there yet, but with an increase in internet speeds and some fancy videoconferencing it might not be that far off...
  - evgen 17y ago
    I would say that online lectures and current video-conferencing provides about 80-90% equivalent experience while the class size is above 50 or so; once you get to smaller classes the online lecture becomes about as worthwhile as a lecture on DVD. Beyond general survey courses it is of marginal benefit to anyone who is not an autodidact. Some of the current high-end video-conference setups come close (e.g. the ones that are basically multiple cameras and a screen that is wall-sized) but these are really only suitable for point-to-point remote learning and not situations where the "class" will be distributed in hundreds of locations.
edave 17y ago
Interesting, but I find it odd that he discounts how universities will change and adapt. Will the university of today be irrelevant in 10 years? Absolutely. But most universities are successful because they've adapted several times in the past.
azharcs 17y ago
Can someone point me out to the video "What If." mentioned in the Article. I tried searching in Youtube but just couldn't find it.
- ca98am79 17y ago
  I think this is it: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2855786550703993653&hl=en http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2855786550703993653...
  - azharcs 17y ago
    Thanks a lot. :) This video made my day.
boryas 17y ago
Judging by how many lectures people skip with the justification that "the notes are online" it seems like some parts of the current university set up could possibly change with things like online video lectures. On the other hand, a good professor will speed up, slow down, answer questions, etc.. which will surely be difficult to bring to an online format.
sfphotoarts 17y ago
My university has existed for nearly 500 years, and I seriously doubt that this new interwebs thing will change the world so much that universities will become irrelevant. I cry Hogwash!
haseman 17y ago
This strikes me as a 64k will be enough for everyone kind of statement...
- haseman 17y ago
  Unless another institution springs up allowing rich kids to get drunk before they're 21, I suspect the University isn't going anywhere.
  - Scriptor 17y ago
    Right, because everyone who goes to college is rich and primarily motivated by alcohol, since as everyone knows most alcohol consumption for teens starts in college. University gives you the chance to have more or less complete control of your time and at least learn to be responsible for yourself, before you get a job and learn to be responsible for colleagues as well.
    - haseman 17y ago
      Right, because everyone is serious all the time.
ilamont 17y ago
People had similar ideas when television came out. Televised lectures were an early part of the American public television movement and Open University in the UK. Yet they never managed to make much of a dent in the established way of educating people, mainly because interaction and the process of dialogue does not easily carry over to the electronic realm. The same can be said for many online education now -- asynchronous communications with professors and classmates using email and discussion boards is hardly a substitute for being able to raise your hand to ask questions or start debates on the fly. I've seen some interesting experiments in real-time online class sessions using virtual worlds and other tools, but the technology still needs a lot of work to make it easier for educators and students to use.
- evgen 17y ago
  Very true. Another point that often gets ignored by those who think online education will replace standard lectures and discussions is the fact that a decent lecturer can get a lot of feedback just by watching the non-verbal responses to the progress of the lecture. It is not hard to notice when everyone is bored, when most of the class has that universal puzzled look that lets the prof know that she needs to go back and re-explain the last point, etc. None of this comes through the real-time virtual channel and until this problem is solved the online course will be a pale substitute for the real thing.
ensignavenger 17y ago
Wiley is one of the advisers to the University of the People project. Interesting note, BYU is operated by the LDS Church, who also operates Institutes of Religion with facilities near many colleges throughout the world, and they are making tremendous investments in communications technology and distance learning.
amjith 17y ago
"But BYU, he notes, might be a special case. Students will likely still flock there for the two extra benefits the school offers: a religious education and the chance to meet and marry an LDS Church member." Are you kidding me, I thought that's why there are churches in this country.
- anamax 17y ago
  > Are you kidding me, I thought that's why there are churches in this country. You already know the folks in your own church. Think of it as cross-pollination.
- Scriptor 17y ago
  Ah, of course, I was wondering what this articles equivalent of "But it won't happen to us because we're special!" would be.
keltecp11 17y ago
What about Socializing? Or are we going to have the Matrix by 2020... or maybe we won't even be around given 2012 is the end...right?
ori_b 17y ago
Sorry, no. Even if you have courses where no labs are required, human interaction and the high bandwidth of face-to-face communication with dedicated teachers is invaluable. 90% of the value of universities is not in the lectures - I can mostly replace lectures with textbooks already. It's in the ability to ask questions, the hands-on experience I get, and the immersion in [and competition with] a group of people with similar interests and abilities.
johnnybgoode 17y ago
While I'd be glad to see this happen, he's focusing on the wrong thing. As I said in another thread (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=642828 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=642828), even if he's right about all of the new technologies, it might not be enough.

37 points by ca98am79 17y ago

Universities will have to change, certainly, in order to respond to the ways students are learning but there is still a need for some sort of institutionalized vetting process (Read: diploma) for many types of careers. Providing an employer a list of the lectures you listened to on youtube isn't going to cut it if you are going into the medical field or if you want to design bridges or airplanes.

noelchurchill 17y ago

Going to a more prestigious and expensive institution isn't just about the diploma anyway. It's a 4 year long networking event where you build relationships with people that will help you for the rest of your life. That's something that can't be replaced by virtual classrooms and listening to course material on your ipod.

kylec 17y ago
Couldn't technology also replace, or at least substantially undercut, the networking as well? Granted, it's not the same as face-to-face interaction, but I would say that social networking through the internet can provide many of the same benefits that college does.
- Retric 17y ago
  I don't think getting drunk while chatting online is going to build the same sort's of bonds.
  - kylec 17y ago
    That's not quite what I meant. Maybe it's exclusive to programmers, but newsgroups, blogs, and sites like HN, GitHub, StackOverflow, and Twitter all serve to allow someone to distinguish themselves and be recognized by their peers. If networking simply means getting drunk and chatting, online or no, then I fail to see how that's helpful as a career-builder.
enra 17y ago
Universities don't have monopoly on networking. Yes it's easy to network while you're all students but it's also quite random. Probably only a handful people of those early networks will be any use for you since people tend to go different ways. It's actually more effective to find your own area and network there.
- IsaacL 17y ago
  It's not just the networking; it's the status you get from going to such an institution, especially if it's 'elite'. I guessing there are relatively few 18-year-olds who consider the networking potential of university, wheras lots probably go as it's the thing they're expected to do. I'm a student now, and a lot of my friends don't seem to have learning as their main priority, in fact I'm not sure what their priority is. Thus, even if this guy's ideas do provide a better learning experience, it's not like people will abandon uni for them.
donaldc 17y ago
Going to a more prestigious and expensive institution isn't just about the diploma anyway. It's a 4 year long networking event where you build relationships with people that will help you for the rest of your life. Has this effect been quantified? I've heard this repeated over and over again, but I am skeptical that it would be the deciding factor in the success of a very capable person. (It might well be the deciding factor for a less capable person.) None of the people I know who went to expensive private universities got their current job through a college-related connection, though I work in the tech industry, which may be biasing the results. But I think the bigger point is, once online classes are regarded as every bit as educational and valid as in-person classes, going to a more prestigious and expensive institution will no longer be about the (perceived better) education and the networking, but only about the networking. This may be a harder sell, both for prospective students, and for the image of the institution in the wider world.

evgen 17y ago

Science labs will all be virtual? Yeah, right. Sometimes you need to get your hands dirty and reading about it or watching it does not provide the same experience. This guy seems to be really in-love with computer-mediated education, but seems to have a big blind spot regarding the experiences it will never provide and the weaknesses inherent in the medium. The whole process of higher-education will change significantly in the next ten years, but not so much that the university will disappear, become irrelevant, or even be unrecognizable to anyone familiar with its current form. File this one under "futurist with a book or contracting gigs to sell..."

buugs 17y ago
I can see some degrees becoming virtual, computer science may be one, but things like those based on history or other less interactive environments may be perfect for virtual learning however as a student for an engineering degree I would no way have learned anywhere near as much online than interaction with labs and the interactive environment with professors (asking questions/correcting/furthering understanding).
heed 17y ago
I know the comments below illuminate some good examples, but what experiences specifically do you feel can never be replaced by a virtual environment? I agree that it is not quite there yet, but with an increase in internet speeds and some fancy videoconferencing it might not be that far off...
- evgen 17y ago
  I would say that online lectures and current video-conferencing provides about 80-90% equivalent experience while the class size is above 50 or so; once you get to smaller classes the online lecture becomes about as worthwhile as a lecture on DVD. Beyond general survey courses it is of marginal benefit to anyone who is not an autodidact. Some of the current high-end video-conference setups come close (e.g. the ones that are basically multiple cameras and a screen that is wall-sized) but these are really only suitable for point-to-point remote learning and not situations where the "class" will be distributed in hundreds of locations.

edave 17y ago

Interesting, but I find it odd that he discounts how universities will change and adapt. Will the university of today be irrelevant in 10 years? Absolutely. But most universities are successful because they've adapted several times in the past.

azharcs 17y ago

Can someone point me out to the video "What If." mentioned in the Article. I tried searching in Youtube but just couldn't find it.

ca98am79 17y ago
I think this is it: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2855786550703993653&hl=en http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2855786550703993653...
- azharcs 17y ago
  Thanks a lot. :) This video made my day.

boryas 17y ago

Judging by how many lectures people skip with the justification that "the notes are online" it seems like some parts of the current university set up could possibly change with things like online video lectures. On the other hand, a good professor will speed up, slow down, answer questions, etc.. which will surely be difficult to bring to an online format.

sfphotoarts 17y ago

My university has existed for nearly 500 years, and I seriously doubt that this new interwebs thing will change the world so much that universities will become irrelevant. I cry Hogwash!

haseman 17y ago

This strikes me as a 64k will be enough for everyone kind of statement...

haseman 17y ago
Unless another institution springs up allowing rich kids to get drunk before they're 21, I suspect the University isn't going anywhere.
- Scriptor 17y ago
  Right, because everyone who goes to college is rich and primarily motivated by alcohol, since as everyone knows most alcohol consumption for teens starts in college. University gives you the chance to have more or less complete control of your time and at least learn to be responsible for yourself, before you get a job and learn to be responsible for colleagues as well.
  - haseman 17y ago
    Right, because everyone is serious all the time.

ilamont 17y ago

People had similar ideas when television came out. Televised lectures were an early part of the American public television movement and Open University in the UK. Yet they never managed to make much of a dent in the established way of educating people, mainly because interaction and the process of dialogue does not easily carry over to the electronic realm. The same can be said for many online education now -- asynchronous communications with professors and classmates using email and discussion boards is hardly a substitute for being able to raise your hand to ask questions or start debates on the fly. I've seen some interesting experiments in real-time online class sessions using virtual worlds and other tools, but the technology still needs a lot of work to make it easier for educators and students to use.

evgen 17y ago
Very true. Another point that often gets ignored by those who think online education will replace standard lectures and discussions is the fact that a decent lecturer can get a lot of feedback just by watching the non-verbal responses to the progress of the lecture. It is not hard to notice when everyone is bored, when most of the class has that universal puzzled look that lets the prof know that she needs to go back and re-explain the last point, etc. None of this comes through the real-time virtual channel and until this problem is solved the online course will be a pale substitute for the real thing.

ensignavenger 17y ago

Wiley is one of the advisers to the University of the People project. Interesting note, BYU is operated by the LDS Church, who also operates Institutes of Religion with facilities near many colleges throughout the world, and they are making tremendous investments in communications technology and distance learning.

amjith 17y ago

"But BYU, he notes, might be a special case. Students will likely still flock there for the two extra benefits the school offers: a religious education and the chance to meet and marry an LDS Church member." Are you kidding me, I thought that's why there are churches in this country.

anamax 17y ago
> Are you kidding me, I thought that's why there are churches in this country. You already know the folks in your own church. Think of it as cross-pollination.
Scriptor 17y ago
Ah, of course, I was wondering what this articles equivalent of "But it won't happen to us because we're special!" would be.

keltecp11 17y ago

What about Socializing? Or are we going to have the Matrix by 2020... or maybe we won't even be around given 2012 is the end...right?

ori_b 17y ago

Sorry, no. Even if you have courses where no labs are required, human interaction and the high bandwidth of face-to-face communication with dedicated teachers is invaluable. 90% of the value of universities is not in the lectures - I can mostly replace lectures with textbooks already. It's in the ability to ask questions, the hands-on experience I get, and the immersion in [and competition with] a group of people with similar interests and abilities.

johnnybgoode 17y ago

While I'd be glad to see this happen, he's focusing on the wrong thing. As I said in another thread (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=642828 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=642828), even if he's right about all of the new technologies, it might not be enough.